Our great share price conductor18 Jul 2023 10:20
Lombard is the conductor of the current share price, with the clout (around 100m shares) to determine its short term level. Great write up in The Sunday Times, followed by news of a US licensing deal with the giant Haleon makes daily trading volume yesterday balloon to over 8m shares, with over 1,000 trades, BUT the share price hardly budges. The significant level of involvement of Lombard is a two-edged sword: supportive at 8p, and through exercising warrants at 40p, but selling consistently above this level, so a stream of good news that would otherwise push the share price much higher has been nullified. Until Lombard stops selling, its share sales will create a brake on the share price, however good the news flow from Futura. A bit like Usain Bolt trying to set a world record into the wind: it can’t be done, or at least not easily, whereas if there is a big buyer or big buyers of the shares (the point of the recent investor open day) they would create a favourable following wind, and that horrid £1 discount to Libernum’s conservative current valuation would soon disappear.
Mis-valuations by the stock market do occur. Some companies respond by going private, others are taken over. Given the staggered release of Eroxon, we are years away from being able to see like-for-like sales globally, or even in the UK, where it’s still unavailable through eg the big supermarkets, and all the countless other places it’s possible to eg buy condoms. Until investors have a better idea of repeat sales for Eroxon, can create their spreadsheet models, sales trajectories, dividend forecasts, discount the cash flows etc, the counter armoury against the continued selling of Lombard is weak: reliance on newspaper tips, news coverage, news of new licensing deals. So far, this hasn’t been sufficient to offset Lombard’s selling.
In September, Futura really needs to present a transparent and compelling view of cash flows from sales, one that really excites potential investors, so that they consistently bid up the share price rather than simply waiting for the price to fall back on Lombard selling, one that replaces that horrid discount with a hefty premium, and one that gives all shareholders an exciting autumn 2023 and beyond to look forward to.