Member Info for Peterashbeck

It is unlikely that the CEO would be putting in £160k of his own money into acquiring shares on or off market if this was a joke of a company. It is very clear that there is something big brewing and the CEO intends to deliver a significant return on his investment. He now owns more than 22% of the company and so his ambitions are totally aligned with the rest of us investors.

Also Superex, looking at your history, only 28 days ago you wrote on the Wildcat board “Better to buy Ajax Resources and get multiple return. “ What has changed your opinion by 180 degrees in 28 days, especially when the CEO here has put £160k of his own money where his mouth is?

Great news that the sidetrack has now been successfully drilled after all of the difficulties that the company encountered in drilling it. Remember that this is a drill that has been failed in the past by very big companies due to hole collapses so it is a tribute to the dedication and perseverance of the Angus drill team and management that the overcame all of the obstacles in front of the them and successfully completed the drill.

Obviously, we need to wait until we see the flow rates until we know exactly how much additional revenue will deliver to the company but it is clearly going to be very substantial and worth many millions per month. There will be no further problems with making the hedge and it is blue skies ahead for investors. To paraphrase WG818, it is no longer a case of “how much gas and by when”, it is simply a case of “how much gas”.

Well done to all of the Angus team and fellow investors. The future is very bright from here and to quote another well known oil and gas expert (alongside WG818) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjD3EVC1-zU

“… We've been broken down
To the lowest turn
Bein' on the bottom line
Sure ain't no fun
… But if we should be evicted
Huh, from our homes
We'll just move somewhere else
And still carry on
… Oh
(Hold on) hold on
(Hold on) hold on
Ooh, aah, baby
… hold on
(Hold on) ooh ooh aah
… The only way is up, baby
For you and me now
The only way is up, baby
For you and me now”

The CEO purchasing another 1.425 million shares on-market it a massive endorsement for the direction that he thinks the company Is going in. This is an investment of another £160k, so a serious statement of intent.

Clearly, the fact that this purchase has been made now means that no news on acquisitions is to be expected for another few weeks or he would not have been able to buy the shares. However, it would not surprise me at all if his visit to Indaba has yielded concrete progress otherwise what would be the point of making the share purchase now. He must feel that the share price is going to rise soon and therefore it is a good time for him to buy more.

It's good for us too. It suggests that progress is imminent but also means that we have a few weeks before news for us to load up at these prices too.

To be fair to Angus they also said on their timeline that 12 days was an estimate and it could take up to 20 days so if they finish on Friday they are still well within their current timeline.

As Jholder says though, the important thing is getting it right this time. Who cares if it is delayed a day or two as long as it works.

Things are looking really good here.

1. Steady trades going through each day with volume staying stable and building.

2. Price coming back up to test the 14.5p 52 week high again.

3. Really tight capital structure with only 46 million shares in issue and 30 million of these held by 8 significant holders – meaning that there us really on 16 million shares available to the er market so it will go up on any significant buying.

4. CEO owns almost 20% of the company and seems to consistently be buying.

5. According to the company twitter the CEO is in Capetown at the moment at Indaba 2023. Presumably he is busy looking for acquisition opportunities and news will be coming soon.

For what it is worth, Ajax was also mentioned last Friday in Zak Mir’s bulletin board heroes https://www.share-talk.com/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-friday-3rd-february-2023-via-vox-markets/ It starts at 3 mins 18 seconds in and he states that from a charting point of view he said that he expects the share price to hit 18 pence as soon as the end of this month.

Sorry, website link should read: https://www.mondaq.com/oil-gas--electricity/366832/oil-and-gas-in-greenland--still-on-ice#:~:text=Greenland's%20estimated%20oil%20and%20gas%20potential&text=The%20Arctic%20as%20a%20whole,world's%20undiscovered%20natural%20gas%20reserves.

According to this website: https://www.mondaq.com/oil-gas--electricity/366832/oil-and-gas-in-greenland--still-on-ice#:~:text=Greenland's%20estimated%20oil%20and%20gas%20potential&text=The%20Arctic%20as%20a%20whole,world's%20undiscovered%20natural%20gas%20reserves.

the three major basins around Greenland are estimated to hold up to 52 billion barrels of oil equivalent. This breaks down into 17.5 billion barrels of oil and 148.2 TCF of gas. These are massive resources but the majority of them appear to be offshore so are going to be quite expensive to recover.

It could be an exciting opportunity if the company chooses to get involved in Greenland oil. However, in my opinion, they will be going for mining assets not oil assets in Greenland. They already have two mining appointments on the board who both already have significant experience in operating Greenland mining assets and if the company went for an oil asset then a lot of their core skill-set would be redundant.

Since the company have made it pretty clear in the RNS about the appointment of Eric Sondergaard as consultant geologist that they are looking to acquire an asset in Greenland then we probably need to start thinking about what this is.

I found an interesting video about investing in Greenland from the Greenland Mineral Resources Authority Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB3FFqyN8mo&t=210s

The video is from three years ago and obviously, it is an investment puff-piece designed to get companies to want to invest in the territory but it has some very interesting information in in – including a short interview with our very own Eric Sondergaard (54 seconds in).

Key elements are:

1. Greenland want mining companies to invest and develop there,.
2. It is a stable political climate with honest government and no corruption
3. It has clear legislation for mining and there is a lot of public support for the industry.
4. There are currently no major players in Greenland so it is still a place mostly for junior explorers
5. There is a lot of historical information available to companies about previous exploration which saves companies a lot of time.
6. You can see a lot of the geology on the surface which makes exploration easier.
7. They say it is very easy to start exploration in Greenland as a non-Greenlandic company.
8. The permitting process is five times quicker in Greenland than Canada.
9. There are lots of deepwater ports in Greenland so it is possible to bring in very large ships and keep logistical costs low.
10. There are already service companies in Greenland who provide all the infrastructure for exploration camps (water infrastructure etc).
11. There are still massive unexplored areas of Greenland so it is a bit of a blank canvas.

Ajax seems to me like a medium risk- high reward play. We currently have a shell where there are only 46,862,500 shares in issue. According to the significant shareholders page on the company website: https://www.ajaxresources.com/investors/significant-shareholders/ 29,761,000 (63.51%) are held by 8 different entities and 14,100,000 (30.09%) of the company is locked for trading until April 7th 2023.

If we assume that none of the eight significant shareholders who are currently listed on the website are going to sell in the next 3 months (and bear in mind that 14 million shares cannot be sold in the next 2.5 months for any reason) then this only leaves 17 million shares that are currently available for trading. This is an incredibly small float and means that the share price is going to move very considerably once there is any significant buying on market.

We are waiting for more information about what the company plans to do next, but it is fairly clear from the latest RNS that they have their sights targeted on an asset in Greenland. The share price has already moved from 3p to 9.5p since September and as more information comes out about potential assets I can see this doubling or more from here even before they formally acquire a license.

As to the discussion about whether the company is likely to acquire an oil asset or a mineral asset, we cannot tell for sure. However, in my opinion all of the signs in the board appointments strongly suggest that this is going to be a mining operation rather than an oil operation.

Good spot Mojolse. I have now looked at the Fulcrum Metals site and seen him there. An interesting parallel path to Ajax, though a mirror image really. Fulcrum have some assets but not yet any listing and Ajax have a listing but not yet any assets.

Where have you seen the information that Fulcrum are listing next month as I could not find anything about that in the quick look I had on their website or Twitter?

From the research I did into James and Olga Simmons and Aidan O’Hara last night they all seem to be high net worth individuals who like to take significant early-stage stakes in small cap companies and it spears that they have been pretty successful at this so far.

James & Olga Simmonds and Aidan O’Hara own TR1 stakes together in three of the same companies: Prospex Oil & Gas, Drumz PLC and Ajax Resources. What is noticeable is that they have held all of these stakes for some time and neither party appears to have yet sold any shares in these companies. They appear to invest for the long-term.

In Prospex O’Hara was the first to invest on 15/06/2021 when his TR1 announced that he had acquired 11.5 million shares representing 8.03% of the company with the share price at that time approximately 2.5p. He continued to buy up to up to 4.7p by which time he announced he held 17.725 million shares worth 7% of the company as new shares being issued had diluted his holding.

The Simmonds’ first issued a TR1 on 27th October 2021 announcing that they had acquired 5.325 million shares at approx. 3p worth 3.01% of Prospex. They continued issuing TR1 until 7th November 2022 where they bought at approx. 10.75p and owned a total of 14 million shares worth 5.02% of the company

At the current share price of 14.75p Aidan O’Hara’s 6.36% stake in the company is worth £2.6 million and it looks like he is up over £2 million on this investment. James and Olga Simmonds who own 5.02% of Prospex worth £2 million also seem to be up about £1.5 million.

In Drumz Aidan O’Hara first issued a TR1 announcement on 19th April 2022 for 15.5 million share or 3.69% of the company and gradually increased this to 21.025 million shares worth 5% of the company. The Simmonds’ first announced a TR1 on 12th May 2022 was for 12.7 million shares worth 3.04% and is currently 30 million shares worth 7.14%. The value of O’Hara’s stake is currently £189k and the Simmonds’ stake is £222k. They are up less significantly here at around £60k and £50k profit respectively.

Ajax, we know about. The initial TR1 announcements for both of them were made on 14th November 2022 when O’Hara announced 1.89 million shares 4.03% and the Simmonds’ 1.55 million shares 3.31%. They have both made two further announcements and O’Hara now owns 3.04 million shares 6.49% worth £320k and the Simmonds’ 2.346 million shares 5% worth £250k. They are both already significantly up on their investments, O’Hara up by approx. £180k and the Simmonds’ by about £90k.

Lets hope that Ajax can do something similar to Prospex and increase in value from 4-5 times the original buy-in price of these investors. That would certainly make me happy.

There are at least two investors now who are both making sizeable bets on the future of Ajax and have put their money where their mouth is. When you combine this with the fact that the directors themselves own about 25% of the company then there are a small amount of people here who own a very large amount of the stock. The big question is - what do the TR1 holders know that we don't.

I'm going to do a bit of research into them this evening and see what I can find out . I'll keep you updated.

This guy put up a screenshot of the original video with the working days incorrect: https://twitter.com/sadaatumar/status/1611294605596672000

The only change I can see is that the altered days working at the bottom from 71 in the original video to 76 in the new one . It looks like they forgot to add in the 5 days for cleanup to the total days worked as adding up the days worked at the top means that 76 is correct and 71 was 5 days too short, which matches the cleanup time . Everything else seems the same.

I downloaded the original video. I'll check the difference. Give me 5 mins.

Average_Dave, when you say more verifiable news and better transparency what do you mean? I think that the company’s comms have been excellent in this drill. We seem to get an update every day on what is going on via Twitter including the current depths that we have drilled to. What more would you like to see?

Average_Dave, the CPR gave Saltfleetby a value of £25 million as the conservative case when Angus owned 49%. It also gave a P50 of £38.5 million. The value in the October 2021 CPR was also predicated on the gas price being at 64p/therm and an aggregate flow rate of 6.5mmscfd.

Obviously things have changed very significantly since then. The current gas price is 293p per therm which is over four times the value allocated in the CPR. Angus now own 100% of Saltfleetby so this is twice the value of the CPR and the flow rate after the sidetrack could be as high as 14mmscfd which again is more than twice the value allocated in the CPR.

So if we were to take the CPR figures of £25 million as the P90 then this would now be multipled:
£25 million x 24 = £100 million x 2 = £200 million x 2 = £400 million.

The P50 figure would be £38 million x 4 x 2 x 3 = £608 million.

Obviously this seems like a ridiculously high price as the market cap for the company but is it? If the company produces at 14mmscfd then even with the hedge in place they are still making £28 million per quarter and therefore £112 million per annum. Since the operating costs of the field are relatively negligible then this would still leave approx. £110 million coming in.

Is it unreasonable for a gas company that is generating a revenue of £110 million a year to be valued at between four to six times earnings? That’s for you to decide but it does not seem unreasonable to me.

Valuation-it-is 18.22

No, my calculations didn’t include the shortfall for July-August – that is what I meant by my notes being slightly out of date. However, if we do take the missing July and August hedged amounts (total 6.76mmscf) and spilt it over Jan- March 2023 then this increases the hedge volume for each month from 5.38 to 7.63. This then means that the hedge generates £3.7 million for the quarter and the unhedged value is £19 million. So even if Angus paid the entire missing July and August hedge off in Q1 2023 then they would still make a total of £22.6 million.

At 14 mmscfd it simply doesn’t matter what needs to be paid off when, the money is there to do it easily.

By my calculations, assuming that Lady of Aim is right and the company does end up producing 14mmscfd after the completion of the sidetrack and the addition of the second compressor and booster compressor then Angus will be making an enormous amount of money each month.

If we assume that 14mmscfd comes online in January 2023 then we have the following calculations:

Jan 2023 forward gas price £3.16 per therm
Feb 2023 forward gas price £3.23 per therm
March 2023 forward gas price £3.13 per therm

From my notes (which may be slightly out of date but not enough to make a significant difference) the hedged amounts for each of these three months are 5.38mmscfd and the hedged price is £0.525.

Hedged Revenue
5.38mmscfd per day equals 1,682,564 therms per month that go to the hedge and this will generate a revenue of £854,613 each month (total £2.5 million in Q1).

Unhedged Revenue
The remaining unhedged 8.62mmscfd equals 2,695,855 therms produced that can be sold on the open market and at the forward prices from above this would generate £8.5 million in January, £8.7 million in February and £8.4 million in March.

Combined revenue
The total hedged and unhedged revenue at 14mmscfd production in Q1 2023 would therefore generate £28 million for Angus in Q1 2023.

I am going to keep building a position in here at these levels as I think that this has the potential to multi-bag in short order. After all, for the market cap to get to £12 million then at the current shares in issue the share price would be 28p. That is a three times return from today’s levels and with the right news it is easily achievable. It is going to need some more buying or some concrete comms from the company to move up again if you ask me but because there are so few shares in issue it only takes the slightest push for the share price to jump significantly and it will be difficult to get in at a good price the next time it rockets.

This is not one to watch day to day in my opinion, but is one to build a stake in and then wait for the day it flies. It will definitely be worth much more than it is today as soon as news comes or any significant buying happens.