RE: Some cheer from Barclays23 Dec 2025 06:37
Investing.com-- Barclays flagged a growing divergence among UK grocers, with discounters and selected premium players gaining more market share while several mainstream chains struggled with operational and competitive pressures.
Barclays said Marks & Spencer remained one of the strongest performers in the 12 weeks to November 30, based on data from Wordpanel by Numerator’s “Switching” and “Drivers of Growth.” M&S gained market share for the 39th consecutive period, with growth recovering from disruptions caused by a cyber incident earlier in the year. Switching gains resumed, new shopper growth stayed strong and basket sizes proved more resilient than peers, supported by customers trading down from eating out.
Tesco and Sainsbury’s both continued to gain share, though with different dynamics. Tesco’s momentum slowed slightly as comparisons toughened, reflecting heavy investment made during last year’s festive period. ASDA remained its largest source of switching gains, while Lidl was its biggest source of losses. Sainsbury’s share gains accelerated, driven by stronger net switching, particularly from Tesco, ASDA, Morrison and Waitrose, and by additional selling space.
ASDA remained under pressure after IT-related disruption in the second half of the year. Barclays said market share losses narrowed modestly, but were still broad-based, with ASDA losing shoppers to all major competitors in the latest period. The bank said improvements were driven more by higher spending from existing customers than by reduced switching losses, and it was too early to see evidence that strategic initiatives were gaining traction.
Morrison’s share losses showed tentative signs of moderation, helped by switching gains from ASDA and smaller losses to Lidl. However, Barclays said the timing suggested this was linked to ASDA’s disruption rather than a fundamental turnaround, with shopper numbers still falling and basket sizes shrinking.
Barclays said discounters were well positioned heading into 2026, amid sluggish economic conditions and moderate consumer spending. Lidl continued to outperform Aldi, gaining share through stronger shopper growth, better basket resilience and a successful loyalty app. Structural factors such as business rates changes and welfare reforms were likely to further support discounters’ competitive position, the bank added.