RE: Earnings predictions??29 Apr 2022 15:43
boohoo Group – Matt Britzman, Equity Analyst
Markets have already been prepped for what to expect in next weeks results. March’s fourth quarter trading statement pointed to cash profit (EBITDA) in the region of £125m, though analysts are pricing in £115m. And that really highlights sentiment at the minute, despite sales in line with revised guidance in the last update, a substantial profit downgrade in December means confidence is still low. Delivering on profit guidance this time around would be another step in the right direction to bring some stability back to trading.
boohoo’s troubles, though hopefully short-term, are stacking. Higher returns rates are never good for retailers and with customers back to buying going-out wear, that trend’s expected to continue into the first half of 2022. There’s also been a range of issues getting supplies overseas which has hurt delivery times, derailing the group’s main attraction – quick access to evolving trends. Commentary so far has pointed to pandemic-related issues, and given international trade is a growth area for boohoo, we’ll be hoping to hear the supply chain pressures are easing.
Inflation can’t be ignored either, higher freight costs are expected to shave £20m off cash profits for 2021. Guidance on gross margin for 2022 will be watched closely, it’ll be an indication as to how much of an impact these are set to have in the coming year.