Member Info for Penguins

So now you're quoting the bloke that hyped the Kimmeridge, and left SS in charge to steer the company onto the rocks.

Let's see how the 'no brainer' appraisal of a water well with an oil cut at the apex of the structure in Turkey works out, not the P&D that posters like Adrian and ells are desperate for on 'news' about the drill happening.

As for the UK operations turning a profit - they can't even afford to shoot a bit of seismic and process it in Turkey without raising twice.

Perhaps DL would like to say what the OPEX is per annum including the workovers vs revenue from the oil sold. Produced water disposal doesn't come cheap and the percent is rising. Is there even enough left for salaries? - I doubt it.

Adrian

Did you notice how the SP flew when UKOG RNS'd that they were appraising a well they had never previously mentioned instead of appraising (again) the previously (before Basur -3) transformational Basur / Resan 'discovery.

No doubt there will be at least a P&D attempt by the usual mob.

By the way predicting that the projects aren't as good as UKOG try to suggest isn't trying to destroy sentiment - it's the truth.

As for "green' board perhaps you and ells ought to find one to post all your anti green clap trap that you're so obsessed with.

'Remember that new Kimmeridge well at Horsehill must be drilled by September "

Remember if they don't drill the Kimmeridge well by Septmber all that happens is they have to reduce the area of the licence (or beg for yet more time) What choice do you think UKOG might make.

'Its good to read posts from the likes of ells and Ocelot . Instead of the same old constant dull repetitive drown of the naysayers :)'

Obviously you haven't seen how bizarre ells posts are when he's not making wrong predictions about the SP or repeating the same post again and again, or how boring and irrelevant ocelot's are.

Where have UKOG given a precise timetable to drilling?

How soon with UKOG, or even AME, is as soon as practicable - not as soon as possible.

Are you saying they will be starting drilling this Monday?

Even with a cheap well they need some sort of site prep. I have posted in the past that a cheap finder well was what TPAO did for risky prospects. Given they know the geothermal well on the apex of the structure flowed fluids with an oil cut it seems sensible to drill cheaply - I can see why you want to ramp the news of drilling rather than the likely outcome - of course UKOG don't give any indication of what an "if' successful case might be.

Do you know that there will be 'drilling' news soon beyond ooo we've found a site. Hope it isn't like that bloke on twitter who tricked ells into thinking that November's production would be soo good when it was an average of 49bopd.

100cent,

Just bought in eh, Turkey news - just like that bloke on twitter who's banned,

Looool

UKOG like unaudited volumetric studies, their map someone else does exactly what they could do but it looks like it's an independant view.

Ells

It doesn't take 6 months to sort out a pre planned farm out when some thoight it implied it was already sorted. Ocelot and others expected it to have been sorted when it was announced.

Whether Ibug knows, I'm certain you have no idea what a farm out entails though.

Ocelot,

There already was a timetable - as much certainty of the Loxley drill by end of 2023 as by the end of June 2024 now (or not!). What hasn't happened to make them squeeze a 6 month extension out of the NSTA - taking 6 months to not farm out Loxley perhaps.

Focus on the essential - getting another placing (or two) in before then?

Another can kicked down the road.

But UKOG couldn't possibly mention progress on the pre-planned farm out - maybe they have to pay per word?

They also forgot to mention that if they fail to drill by 30 June 2024 they lose the licence.

We have literally heard this all before although last time it was 2 years this time 6 months - maybe last extension?

The negativity is to do with the near and medium term projects, and uncertainty about the long term projects.

The share price and your claim in November that there was a rerate are a different matter.

If the SP during the recent spike is meant to be evidence that a rerate is now happening I would have thought that the fact the SP continued to drop until early January was clear evidence that ther definitely wasn't a rerate until then, so claiming that the rerate was happening since November 23 was wrong. eg:-

'RE: She’s Ready 01 Dec 2022 18:33
The share price has started to re-rate (ref volume 23/11) & TR-1 Notification of increase RNS 24/11. Accumulation Phase'

Maybe the recent RNS have helped sentiment - whether this is just a series of P&Ds that raise the average or a rerate I would say it's too early to say - too often a short term modest rise has been daclared to be the start of a rerate - the long term chart illustrates that so far that hasn't been the case

Your need for invention about other posters is becoming more ridiculous. You really need to stop making things up.

'The way you speak to any positive poster Penguins doesn't make me believe you have profited from every trade here,'

Where have I ever claimed I have profited from every trade? Still waiting for an 'angry' post to be identified, and your estimate of average daily production in November.

Have you profited from one trade here?

You also don't seem to read my posts - 'that being the reason why you speak the share down 100% of the time even when there is clear opportunity from 0.06 levels'

I don't speak the share down - I comment on the projects, and other poster's posts, and only mention the SP to compare what poster's have said about the SP vs what the actual SP is - you just seem to be the ramper of the week, every week recently - and has one prediction been right in the 6 months you've been posting here?

But it doesn't take an expert, or a chart, to hope that the SP will rise on hope of a drill - or even an announcement of the Loxley farm-out (whatever happened to that - is all the BS about the gas storage to help pi forget? I just don't think either Pinarova or Loxley will be successful to the extent many hope. As for the storage project it's distant and uncertain, but someone might instigate a P&D around the February talking shop.

But it isn't clear the share is rerating, which you have been claiming has been underway since November 23, when the SP closed at 0.0675p reached a mid price high of 0.069p. Yesterday the mid price peaked at 0.068p and closed at 0.065p - even the volume was less than the Jan 11 Pinarova RNS mini spike.

Not sure claiming the SP is rerating and it hasn't for the 3 months you've been claiming it is is a vindication of your 'expertise' you're constantly banging on about.

Maybe tomorrow.......

> 0.065 “breakout zone”

It looked more like resistance. But then I'm not an expert.......

Yet another prediction gone wrong, or did you mean the third / fourth / fifth etc time it happens, we need to know - or has the herd had it's slim pickings and moved on to pastures new again.

Looking at twitter I'd say yes.

Just that gap at 0.0595p to fill now and then rockets and boom eh?

Adrian, love the idea that SS will be talking about government strategy with a minister while the CEO's of majors are deciding it.

A picture says zero words, but unlike the meeting with Cameron there is a picture.

The lack of critical thinking iwhen it comes to any AIM company RNS explains a lot.

Nowhere does it say the minister supports the project.

'Mr Sanderson said: "It was important to gain the support of the Minister for our project......'

Of course it is, but it doesn't say the minister gave it.

A bit like the claims the government supported it in Jene yet when if you read the letter there was no such statement, just warm words - from the Secretary of State - though it was Kwasi Kwartang - not just a minister.

As for being in an inner circle, the local MP facilitated the meeting - and it was only a minister.

I remember all the BS about visits to No 10 with Cameron - much was made of that as well.

'I do believe in UKOG from current levels'

Really, believing UKOG has been a bad strategy since 2015 as nothing claimed/ expected / planned has happened as claimed / expected or planned, through HH, BB and Basur-3 and many other projects that have just been forgotten whilst claims of untold riches have been made based on UKOG's RNS without a reality filter

So what was all the 'positivity' about before the SP reached 'current levels'. If the SP drops you'll 'believe' even more? at what point if it rises will you stop believing?

There is no 'growth plan'. It looks like the new seismic did not confirm the previous mapping of Basur-4 which looked like a bit of 'positive' contouring with no control between seismic lines.

There goes the transformational Basur / Resan structure.

At least the Kezer appraisal, Pinarova, is being done on the cheap - which is a good strategy for a risky drill - but rather than a growth plan UKOG don't give details of the flow test of Kezer, nor a proper map (just like the pre-Basur-3 presentations), nor any indication except Basur-4 and Pinarova have similar success case outcomes - so presumably as good or as bad as each other.

Have you consider that the current most positive poster on the board, yourself, has for 6 months been claiming that charting is indicating the SP is about to rise, probably based on your hope that there will be significant news to rerate the SP:-

Turkey - an announcement of where Basur-4 would be drilled following another phase of seismic, now announced it's an appraisal of a well elsewhere that flowed water with an oil cut - to be drilled Q1 (we'll see) - hardly moved the SP

Loxley - an announcement of farming out, been expected by some 'soon' since the announcement in July of the pre-planned farmout - obviously pre-planning made no difference.
HH-2z - conversion to injector been trailed for 2 years, UKOG changed EA application so there was a year's delay added, but been approved since May, claimed to be happening every time a truck arrives at Horse Hill. Could be issues and difficult to predict outcome in this fractured and restricted reservoir section within the Portland

HH-1 - new pumps installed in July and an expectation of much improved flows by you. Brief rise in August as well was shut in for a month, but September and October saw falls. Water production is a major issue. Much made of revenue, but OPEX costs extremely high.

HH-3, 4 - been trailed for years, won't be happening without a cash raise - Portland extremely risky as water filled fractures impossible to map - Kimmeridge, haven't even dual completed HH-1 even though costs sunk and Portland production poor - suspect risked NPV for new wells is negative.

Portland project - won't deliver for years, if it happens at all - your advice, don't hold for years.

But in fact the SP has dropped about a third since you 'invested' with your charting nonsense and 'positivity' in July both based on the hope there would be news about one of the above, and now you're still hoping one of the above digs you out.

Funny how chartist manage to see a rise in the runes when they hope a 'good' RNS might emerge - or if they're famous manage to instigate a self fulfilling P&D (with acolytes agreeing) - but forget all the previous predictions when they're wrong.

BTW - when you respond I'm a greenie that's been negative for years firstly I'm not a greenie - you need to be something else to see through the RNS BS, but perhaps you should have a look at the 5 year chart (rather than last weeks) and consider how wise it is to point out now accurate I've been in my opinions about the risks inherent in the sort of projects UKOG gets involved in.

BTW2 - it isn't 'aggressiv3' to disagree and explain why, what isn't disagreeing is making up spurious claims about other poster's you don't know because you have no understanding of the technical issues UKOG face.

Us 'amateurs' know nuffink about how AIM works......no doubt there will be someone explaining that it's good news........

'Penguins
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 4,265
Price: 0.06 No Opinion
RE: Support @ 0.0620 Jan 2023 09:57
Are you sure there's any placees still with shares - even IG sold down their holding before Xmas - a fine example of faith in the SP rising - will the next RNS be an IG TR1 drop below 3%.'

Only another 631million shares to sell into any rise (P&D).....plus all those other 'investors' who proclaim how wonderful UKOG's projects are - just don't expect them to hold for the results.

Just because it explains out why an ii is unlikely to invest - though take part in a raise as long as they areable to forward sell - here's the rest of that post:-

'Many have dreamed of institutional buyers investing for the long term, I think ocelot is a fan of that line - but they won't be relying on what Adrian tweets - nor your 'expert' multi bottoms chart analysis - they'll look at fundamentals and ask those pesky technical 'experts' who may not have the same opinion of the likely outcomes as UKOG, or even you - though these days not even UKOG seems to have an opinion on the outcome beyond 'potential' for success. Certainly more honest than trotting out 'transformational' for Turkey when they must have known the production and individual performance of wells In E Sadak - proclaimed as a lookalike producing field - and now they're not even drilling the 'lookalike' structure.

The problem for UKOG is that every failed project was trailed as of national importance or transformational - who apart from mug pi would believe it if they trot it out again?'

Are you sure there's any placees still with shares - even IG sold down their holding before Xmas - a fine example of faith in the SP rising - will the next RNS be an IG TR1 drop below 3%.

Many have dreamed of institutional buyers investing for the long term, I think ocelot is a fan of that line - but they won't be relying on what Adrian tweets - nor your 'expert' multi bottoms chart analysis - they'll look at fundamentals and ask those pesky technical 'experts' who may not have the same opinion of the likely outcomes as UKOG, or even you - though these days not even UKOG seems to have an opinion on the outcome beyond 'potential' for success. Certainly more honest than trotting out 'transformational' for Turkey when they must have known the production and individual performance of wells In E Sadak - proclaimed as a lookalike producing field - and now they're not even drilling the 'lookalike' structure.

The problem for UKOG is that every failed project was trailed as of national importance or transformational - who apart from mug pi would believe it if they trot it out again?

'This is 2+ years in the making. They have better understanding from the seismic study now. Shallow reservoir drill could bring in investment as little chance of an adverse event.'

This hasn't been 2+ years in the making. They've swerved at the last minute to drill an appraisal of a well that hasn't previously been mentioned - is it because the new map of Basur has a much smaller closure than even the map they presented on twitter (July 20).

Read this bit of the RNS - without rose tinted glasses:-
'Analysis of the new Phase 2 seismic data also supports the directors' belief that the Basur structure extends more westwards than first mapped and can now be better appraised from a newly identified site, 1 km west of the Basur-1 oil discovery.'

We were never shown the 'first map' - so being further westward doesn't seem to mean a long way west as one kilometre west of Basur-1 is about half way to the culmination of the July 20 map.

They haven't shown the latest map but it begs the question that if the new line went through the culmination did it fail to confirm the July 20 map - not showing it is certainly suspicious.

'shallow reservoir drill could bring in investment as little chance of an adverse event'

But you say they've got millions - what 'investment' is needed or even wanted as any investment likely means dilution. But appraising the Kezer well which flowed on test water with an oil cut suggests an adverse result of some degree is almost guaranteed - the appraisal is to 'test 'if light oil is present in commercially viable saturations and quantities'

'An institution has been buying up the float around 0.06 since mid November. The marker maker has been servicing them.'

Isn't it more likely that an institution / or large holder might be selling to pi - for example IG Markets reduced their holding between the TR1s notifying changes as of 23 November and 15 December. Maybe the next market news will be IG reducing below 3%? Maybe the placees are continuing to dump shares taking the hit having made their wedge forward selling - they bought plenty.