Member Info for Penguins

I am calling you by your 'proper' name. rather than the one you're using on this board.

I have never called any poster here Adrian that wasn't Adrian........even when they've denied they were Adrian, there was a time when you didn't lie - but now even that barrier is gone.

You even retweeted the Nigel Farage Daily Mail article (tweeted by Farage at 21:18) that you posted here (21:24) and the Telegraph Sunak article - I suppose both coincidences. But there's plenty of other clues, not just post after post of drivel.

Anyway at least you confirm it's a cult thing.

Brexit, woke, cancel culture, lefties, freedom of speach.

My it's a very dark place you've got yourself into. Do you really think the billionaire owners of the TV stations and newspapers you quote are in any way on your side? It's an exercise in look over there while they steal your money.

Seems that all the capitals were removed in that post - odd.

You'll have to guess what ****** was.

adrian,

what have ex anything johnson, never anything farage, daily mail, natwest and coutts to do with ukog. is it a cult thing?

from the published information it was primarily a commercial decision to close farage's account. his balance had been below their threshold for some time but a mortgage was still outstanding. they closed his account after the mortgage was paid off early. seems he's a snob who wanted the kudos of a coutts accountwithout the necessary cash.

if they had really disliked having what they describe as a ******, xenophobic, grifter on their books they wouldn't have waited. in fact i'd have thought at least one of those characteristics would apply to many high worth individuals that bank with coutts.

what this board is about, ukog, not made up stories about other posters.

as for loxley many posters have quoted the valuation that effectively ukog wanted put on it by rps - the one not using their preferred forward price scenario. in any case the valuation/ resources were based on a significant change in production scenario (1 well instead of 5 because of an external report that ukog wanted used), a map with forced closure, a flakey interpretation of alfold and rule of thumb recoveries.

despite these 'issues' the npvs based on contingent resources were presented unrisked. however a potential farminee would certainly consider all these (and other) risks associated with what is an exploration well, as rps point out the gas column, reservoir parameters and thus flow rates are unproven and even if gas is found it could not be commercial.

seems the oil odour zone in pinarova was not worth bothering about until they had a failed swab test in one bit of hoya and drilled through the amplitude anomaly. not even a secondary target it's quite possible the testing already run was valid - the formation just didn't flow. the 2 month wait, so far, for a bigger perforating gun may only result in the the same outcome.

as for a conceptual deeper accumulation - where's the structure map showing a structural closure - surely that would be a better indication of a deeper accumulation than the geochem of samples from pinarova, the shot holes and e sadak that may show similarities (or not), what the source was but not where, or whether, it resided somewhere else previously.

Demolition,

They already had a 'whiff' of oil. But then ignored it until after they drilled through the main target and presumably, from the lack of any mention of it since, there was no oil.

They even swab tested a zone with oil in cuttings (better than a whiff) - no oil - and it's quite possible perforating the Germak (the interval with the whiff of oil) did work it but it's so tight it didn't flow.

There has been no indication of the possible size if there is any oil as UKOG didn't present a structure map of the Hoya - probably because they just mapped out the anomaly as a stratigraphic trap and wasn't structurally closed.

So G-Martin's 'Pinarova is the main focus' is a bit worrying - given that this main focus has been waiting nearly 2 months to source a larger perforating gun - which has a good chance of confirming the last test worked, the formation dodn't flow.

Two months is up Sunday 23 July the 3 year anniversary of the farm in to Turkey / Resan-Basur, some highlights from this bit of codswallop from SS:-

'an irresistible opportunity to expand our horizons and to expose the company to potentially transformational recoverable oil reserves that can be rapidly monetised.'

'the targets'.........................'located within the same petroleum system as the major oil producing Kurdistan region of Iraq'

The Basur and Resan appraisal opportunities'.........'are much cheaper to drill and can be monetised far more quickly..'

'in the success case, we plan to have a near continuous drilling programme, hopefully commencing this year'.........'We expect this programme will provide a regular stream of newsflow'

'AME, are a proven leading Turkish operator'..........'We will undoubtedly benefit greatly from their unrivalled Turkish knowledge and experience'

Unfortunately their Business Strategy included 'We reduce initial investments invested in high-risk exploration....'

There was alot of excitement - but over the 3 years many (all?) of the claims have been proved nonsense.

AME did OK though.......

Bag0,

and yet, in nearly a year it has been available, UKOG haven't been able to farm Loxley out , probably because the original 'plan' of 5 wells meant the risked NPV was barely profitable, now the forecast production from a single well (not 30mmscf/d) and the recoverable resources require all the stars aligning - and success.

It wouldn't be the first time that UKOG have RNS'd what are flakey figures without mentioning the issues with the inputs - many based on limited information.

PS: 30,000,000 sale @ 16:24 ........a YA sell ? Was yesterday's 90,000,000 'buy' really a buy, conversely plenty of buys today were listed as sells?

? / ells / JR90 / G-Martin

You've repeated this from a RNS:-

'The geochemical results will assist the Company's current investigations into the possibility that a deeper light oil accumulation may also exist below the Pinarova area within Cretaceous limestones.'

Sounds scientific and perhaps if you think this is 'good' you can explain why the geochemistry of the oil will indicate that it's from an accumulation in the Cretaceous Limestones below Pinarova?

After all they told us before that the oil in the shot holes could come from the accumulation in the amplitude anomaly in the Hoya.

Geochemistry can give you an idea of what it is sourced from and compare in detail with other oil samples but can't tell where it was in an accumulation.

As for 'Loxley can be sold' - they can't even farm it out, and isn't it the jewel in the crown of UKOG's assets (is there anything else?) - if they have to sell that it looks more like everything is slowly falling apart for management.

Still can buy 10,000,000 (for 0.058p) so would appear to be a sell, wonder why they want that to happen - perhaps they don't want to lower the spread - couldn't get a quote to sell my measly 5,000,000 rampers aren't doing a very good job today.

Do you realise that you started a thread with 'Supreme Court' in it, then put a quote with High Court in it:-

'G-Martin

Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 658

Price: 0.0625

No Opinion

RE: SUPREME COURT SAYS WE DON'T WANT COMMUNISM HERE 20 Jul 2023 11:30

UK Oil & Gas Shares Rise After High Court Dismisses Loxley Planning Consent Challenges'

and you expect anyone to believe your made up posting.

Of course that means they can appeal the verdict - which according to certain posters means more inactivity.

Seems the geothermal's going to be pretty low grade 'agricultural' use - maybe heating a few greenhouses? and they want to drill 6 deep boreholes. UKOG can't even afford one fairly shallow one to explore the ever so transformational Kimmeridge - surely worth a lot more than warm water.

But can't actually sell - suppose they're busy selling shares on behalf of YA.

Could have bought 10,000,000 at 0.0584p which would have shown up as a sell.

Anyone who thinks the 90,000,000 trade was a buy needs to realise that's exactly what the sellers (YA) want you to believe.

Don't believe the sells vs buys. When will the RNS of the first conversion be released?

? / ells / JR90 / G- Martin,

'Up to'. Surprised you don't use UKOG's favourite meaningless adjective - 'potential'.

But that's based on a simplistic recovery from a map with forced closure and a flow rate that is based on assumptions about the Godley Bridge well test and the reservoir parameters at Loxley.

Until UKOG got a separate company to take an optimistic view of the short testing at Godley Bridge the anticipated flow rates required 5 wells to flow what one well is now expected to deliver as illustrated in last November's Corporate Presentation. This has removed a huge amount of up- front costs and time to first gas which would massively affect the NPV valuation - but whether that flow rate from a single well is realistic won't be known until the first well is drilled - and as RPS state about Loxley-1:-

'it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered'

The £124mm is just an unrisked valuation based on a series of positive assumptions, the first of which is finding the hoped for gas column, for a well that may require a significant raise and won't be drilled until 2024 and requires a significant farm in or raise.

Up to is certainly one way of describing the risks involved. If the well is a failure that value is in the region of at least minus £6mm.

'Large after hours 'trade' listed as a buy on a busy day'

That's a hallmark of a conversion - seen plenty of times during the previous series of convertable loan notes being converted. In this case listed after hours, timed just before. CLN RNS usually a day or two after the first sale.

Here's an example from 2018, RNS was on 16 March at 14:58 for 17603154 shares, listing is date, time, number of shares. price in pence and what it was identified as:-

14-Mar 16:34 5500000 1.49136 BUY

15-Mar 16:27 2500000 1.527 SELL

16-Mar 16:34 5500000 1.583 SELL

19-Mar 12:37 4103154 1.428 BUY

All late in the trading day RNS 2 days after the first trade some listed as buys, some as sells.

Ninetails - agreed but it may be a pyrrhic victory for UKOG when (if?) the well is drilled next year - though nobody expected UKOG to lose.

? / ells / JR90 / G-Martin / next account?

You even got the wrong court with this thread title you started - and I suspect communists wouldn't bother with a court - but as regards accuracy it's on par with the content of your posts - complete BS.

Like quoting a valuation of 2C contingent resources as if any of the values in the CPR are guaranteed in a CPR hampered by a lack of data and obvious interference in the report by UKOG

Perhaps you could find a single instance in a previous report, RNS or even the 2018 CPR where the outcome has come anywhere near the expectation.

Given the lack of data and 'interpretation choices in this CPR it will take a miracle for even the RPS 2C volumetrics and production forecast to be close to reality - ie any 2P reserves. It's quite possible the accumulation will be restricted to the pimple around the Loxley target with the tight Portland above the supposed GWC in Alfold as reservoir.

But hey - Supreme Court...communists

TyreTread,

'Nice 90million trade to closing time'.

Large after hours 'trade' listed as a buy on a busy day, has all the hallmarks of a conversion - CLN RNS Monday?

From the CPR:-

'Risk and Opportunity Assessment

The Loxley-1 well is intended to be the first of two development wells within the PEDL 234 licence. Although it will be designed and drilled as potential production well, it will still have an element of appraisal as it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered. For this reason, the recoverable volumes predicted in this report are classified as Contingent Resources, Development Pending in accordance with the PRMS'

Assuming an unrisked valuation based on UKOGs demanded forward gas price scenarion is money in the bank is a high risk strategy.

The CPR assumes UKOG's mapping is correct despite the extremely dodgy closure to the east, and that the wrong correlation of the Alfold / Godley Bridge poroperm crossplots (fig 5.14) and the change in resistivity at a change in facies supports a GWC in Alfold the same as Godley Bridge-1 (section 5.1.3.6). On top of that they only agreed the gas flow assumption from a third party because the data in their view was insufficient to come to the same conclusion (footnote page 32).

As for this:- 'This news coupled with perforation gun receipt will send this very north' ....unfortunately for that prediction they will then have to use it and quite possibly (will imho) confirm that their interpretion of the first test using the smaller perforating guns was wrong and those tests were valid.

'The tests are thus interpreted to be invalid until such time that larger perforating guns can be deployed in the well to establish proper contact with the formation and the potential hydrocarbon prospectivity correctly assessed.'

There's also the possibility that the losers will appeal.

'Desree'

The full quote was 'Chalk Talk wells initial production rates ranged from 100-400 barrels of oil per day'

But this well has already had its 'initial' production. As I posted there might be a short burst but short term they are likely to return to the rates that got it shut in.

Perhaps the previous RNS might help:

'Both wells were producing at rates of approximately 15-20 bopd prior to being shut-in and Nobel hopes to restore production to similar levels or better after a thorough evaluation and contingent upon a well workover.'

That's not going to generate the £4.6mm required even if it costs nothing to produce - there was a poster / tweeter who seemed to forget that there was OPEX when they calculated the income from oil production at HH.

Funny they didn't repeat that information in this RNS. You should go on the PPP board (again) and warn investors.....

But the share price is down over 40% from when you took a position at over 0.1p on 25 April - explains your desperate 'clutching at straws'.

Seems that UKOG and PPP are competing for the longest time to test a well award.

But last year you were posting that the Loxley farm out was one of your near term 'catalysts' even thought the group challenging the planning permission announced their intentions before UKOG announced the farm out.

As for PPP expect all sorts of fun and games with the more or less gifted shut in wells and their initial flow rates. Maybe there will be enough excitement to enable a raise massively more than they've managed so far, but I doubt there will be enough positive cash flow to fund HH-3 - that's even if it's worth drilling after the 3D has been shot (if it's shot). Remember Basur-3 and the first pahse seismic revised mapping - followed by a second phase of seismic that was going to confirm a location for Basur-4. That was obviously so good that they preferred to drill the predictable failure of testing the amplitude anomaly at Pinarova.

Perhaps you're right about 99% losses Ocelot - possibly because of the hope that good things come to those who wait. Those that predict failure are hardly likely to hold for failure to be RNS'd.

As when has waiting for good news worked?

Not having a clue is more likely a poster who 2 hours before an RNS came out with news that the swab test had failed to produce any oil 'took a position' at over 0.1p.

G-Martin

Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 582

Price: 0.103

No Opinion

RE: The Company has ample funds to cover its share of the planned drilling and testing campaign. 25 Apr 2023 11:42

opened a position

news soon glah

Also note the title of the post which was also wrong......as the recent raise was for, amongst other things:-

'Turkey: further testing of Pinarova-1 and further drilling preparations/studies'

Billy,

Go UKOG?

You should be more specific

Go and get a 7" perforating gun - apparently in bureaucracy free Turkey AME have to source it through a monopoly holder - only been 7 weeks since it was decided that the first test needed to be verified, or not.

Go and ask AME if they are still proposing a 2D seismic survey to chase a lead in Siirt area of the licence - presumably because the seismic over Basur has confirmed it really is 'similar' to Pinarova - you know the transformational Basur - Resan feature with more recoverable boe than all UKOG's UK 'assets'.

Go and sort out HH-2z conversion - final permission to do it since May 2022, 7 months later (or so) actually did some pre- injecting monitoring work that would take 3 months - that work completed months ago - ?

Go and get a farminee for Loxley - pre planned Farm in initiated nearly a year ago, no takers so far.

Go and find out if all the conditions for PPP's farm in are met, and......

Go and check PPP's books to find out if they can fund the proposed 3D at HH as the last fund raise seemed to involve a bit of recycling shares already issued.

Go and find out what the CPR figures are for Avington as OIP and some recovery figures for other fields are a bit misleading when Star Energy's CPR says P2 reserves net to UKOG are 2,900 bbls - and perhaps mention the 90% water cut - and the production rates in the year before the well was shut in (about 25 to 50bopd).

Yep a news rich period coming up, just like H1 2023, in fact a lot of it the same news expected in H1 - unfortunately when UKOG find out the answers to the above they might not be the hoped for catalysts.

Finally,

Will the recent rise in share trades initiate the first dump of shares by the slippery hands 'potentially' holding billions of shares.

Market abuse?

Avington CPR figures from Star:-

1P (Proved) reserves Gross 46,000bbls, Net to UKOG 2,300bbls

2P (Proved and Probable) Gross 58,000bbls, Net to UKOG 2,900bbls

2C resources Gross 741,000bbls, Net to UKOG 37,050bbls

Yet for some reason, despite the same (but rounded) figures being listed in UKOG's Annual Report UKOG choose to only quote original OIP and recoveries from other fields that have lead to ridiulous calculations of recoverable oil.

The well that was producing in 2017 between about 25 and 50bopd will be returning to production following a workover. In 2017 water production was about 10 times this amount.

That was just over 1 to 2.5bopd to UKOG - with high OPEX costs and a workover to fund when will the meagre value of UKOG's share of production show a positive cash flow from Avington?

More importantly perhaps UKOG could explain the circumstances that would lead to the recovery of even 6% of the OIP as they have chosen to suggest the Avington Field could have comparable recovery to nearby fields.

wierdo might be more applicable to someone who claims to be a trading expert and then has to shut at least 3 accounts (don't know what the account name was when you spammed val pre july 2022 = '?') because they've got so much wrong - including when to trade.

in other news most of those you accuse of being paid, swampies, nimby's etc have held on to their accounts because they don't slavishly follow what ukog rns or tweet so have opinions they're prepared to justify but form those opinions about the projects using often better actual facts than the carefully chosen, often spurious, facts that lead to enormous but unachieved potential being calculated by posters on this board - you know billions of barrels of oil, then just hundreds of millions, then tens of millions, then millions - with total actual ukog 1p reserves from cpr of less than 100,000bbls.

but hey look over here 177,000 - 384,000 bbls of unaudited and unsupported by the operators cpr because multiplying unrelated numbers result in those numbers.

the cpr for avington has 46,000bbls of reserves star a're prepared to justify - for 5% thats 2,300bbls net to ukog - not 177,000, not 384,000 or any other nonsensical number that dedicated posters that prefer researching by the 'ostrich' method.

have a look at the 2022 anual report for real figures for reserves and resources - not *** packet calculations by an ostrich

I think you mean thise quoting real facts rather than UKOG RNS - that's UKOG RNS - always the most unreliable source of information about UKOG projects - though the use of the word 'potntial' is a 'flag' that anything to do with that word is probably not going to happen.

About the only accurate RNS are how much they've raised - though what it fully funds is often wrong - eg your constant insistence that because UKOG said Pinarova was fully funded UKOG wouldn't raise before it was completed.

S for Avington he'd probably get more net income for UKOG doing a minimum wage job at the site than UKOG's % of production will contribute

Ocelot - whose byline should be:-

'I have no idea'

Perhaps an excerpt from the CPR is more reliable source than a UKOG RNS:-

'The current plan is to bring one well AV3z back to production in 2024 by disposing the produced water offsite and reducing operating costs. There are no proved developed producing reserves for this field. Proved developed non-producing reserves were estimated bases on the performance of the existing well and are 46,000 boe. There are no proved undeveloped reserves for this field. Estimates of probable and possible reserves account for the potential for better performance than proved reserves.'

Big difference 3,540,000bbls (lower end of ocelot's supposed recoverable) to 46,000bbls.

Of course ocelot will believe it's justified to use 2 unrelated facts in a UKOG RNS (OIP at Avington and recoveries in other fields) to make 2+2 = 5 which is just what UKOG hope others will do.

There's facts and there's UKOG 'facts' - when there's a CPR available to quote some verified figures from UKOG choose not to quote it - presumably because the figures are underwhelming, would ocelot be quoting reserves net to UkOG of 2,300bbls?

Apologies, made a mistake that should be about 200 years:-

'If Avington produced at the highest average rate seen in 2017 (about 50bopd) it will take about 100 years to produce UKOG'S 177,000bbls' but actual 2C resources are 37,000bbls net to UKOG or about 40 years with no decline or economic cut off.

Still every little helps apparently - ocelot will at least remain ignorant to the reality with a proud boast of green boxes filling the page, ostrich not ocelot comes to mind.