Member Info for Penguins

To expand on your post.

‘No doubt that's why the decision to roll some dice in Turkiye made sense. If the PIn1 well is a duster then it's lose lose.’

Made sense to UKOG in July 2020 as HH had declined fast (to 158bopd in June 2020) plus water production of about 25% - but UKOG hadn’t mentioned HH-1 daily production since April 2020 which was ‘averaging over 300bopd of dry oil’ in March, but as the OGA published monthly production 3 months in arrears the first month with significant water cut, June, wouldn’t be known until 1 October - the same day UKOG issued a RNS about a workover at HH with no mention of water production – by then there had been 4 months of about 25% water production.

UKOG described the Basur - Resan structure like this:- ‘the targets being directly on trend with the geological look-alike East Sadak field and located within the same petroleum system as the major oil producing Kurdistan region of Iraq’. They quoted an initial rate from an E Sadak well of 1300bopd – yet the whole field from July 2019 to June 2020 averaged 654bopd from multiple (8+?) wells (AME annual report 250bopd). There has already been a ‘lose’ since then - Basur-3. As for mentioning the Kurdistan fields – E Sadak scout reports show it to be nothing like those fields.

'Loxley gas maybe the only thing that would help UKOG stay in business.' But if no farminee UKOG will need to raise £6mm to drill the well, and they should revisit the Alfold well interpretation and shoot the 3D before, not after drilling. Sadly I suspect they don’t want to shoot the seismic because it could remove much of the closure and they won’t have to shoot it and thus save the expense if the well fails.

‘But now PPP have entered the fray so unless they have some magic tricks not yet tried in HH,who knows’ – ‘magic tricks’ probably not.

‘Watch [Wytch] Farm was on shore & a great success, so it is possible that onshore could produce significantly if another formation could flow like that. But to invest in that is a fairytale decision in my opinon.' Correct - the Portland is not a thick good porosity Sandstone like the Sherwood , HH-1 production is from a better porosity sandstone of limited thickness (35ft gross which includes a shaley layer). Wytch Farm also produced from the Bridport Sandstone – the cliffs to the east of West Bay is that formation at outcrop, hard and soft sandstone bands - alternating poor and good poroperm sandstone.

Assuming nothing comes out of the Supreme Court when it isn't sitting then that's more than a month away.

Can UKOG avoid any update on anything until then - though if they update on something else and don't mention the only real activity happening at the moment it will look odd.

________________________________________________________________

PS - someone who came on the board seemingly with the intention of setting up an 'Argument Clinic (ref Monty Python) and not for the first time as you did it on SCIR- here making up stories about other posters now decides he's in charge and can call a halt. Let's see if you can resist answering this post personally?

There could be several reasons for a lack of news apart from there is no news as UKOG avoids RNSing bad news. But specifically for Pinarova:-

It has indeed taken months (as some posters have suggested) to source a 7"perforating gun and they have succeeded but for some reason UKOG are happy to let the SP slide so are not RNSing any update - maybe helping YA / Riverfort with a low vwap?

They have abandoned the idea of testing because of expense vs likelihood of any success but want some good news to announce at the same time (eg HH-2z conversion, Loxley farm out, PPP signed up and preparing to shoot 3D at HH - change of leadership? - only joking).

Maybe it would be cheaper to drill a new slim hole, case and use the smaller gun, or even cheaper open hole test this new well (maybe they should have done that in the original well seeing as the smell was such 'good' news after the event) and are working on the logistics.

Disagreement / impasse with AME over what to do next - private company's logical progress vs listed company's desire for positive news flow.

'... A 2018 Xodus CPR for UKOG estimated a gross mid case P50 Portland oil in place ("OIP") of 30 million barrels, with a corresponding mid-case 2C recoverable Contingent Resource of 1.5 million barrels....'

A 2018 CPR - it was in June, there was no assessment of the Kimmeridge.

The only testing before that was in 2016 and consisted of 2 very short tests.

Since then there have been at least 2, maybe 3, promises of commissioning a CPR. There has been over a year of testing the Portland and Kimmeridge, an unpublished report about the Kimmeridge in June 2019, a vertical cored hole in the Portland (HH-2), a horizontal well drilled in the Portland (HH-2z) and tested, the map changed significantly because the HH-2z well proved the old map wrong, a field development plan (which would require a good understanding the reservoir) submitted to the OGA, and over 3 years of production from the Portland.

The question isn't what else do they need to know for a CPR, it's what are UKOG hiding, or at least not confirming publicly.

Although what is happening may not be detailed by UKOG but the OGA and now by the NSTA do publish monthly production figures delayed 3 months - though how many of the thousands of investors know the true story? The last mention of daily production from HH-1 was 'over 300bopd' in April 2020, followed in the June 2020 Interim Report by a comment that following installation of a new pump production had increased - but not what it had increased to.

Even the excuse UKOG has trotted out in the last 3 annual reports - 'the company requires more data to establish the long-term decline trend of the well' is not only ridiculous with the huge amount of testing, core, logs and production data but shown to be ridiculous by this statement about the HH Portland, also in the last Annual Report:- 'The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was externally reviewed'.

As for the Kimmeridge only a rogue would use the billions of barrels of OIP figure for the whole licence when UKOG has a calculated, but unexplained, gross 2C resources of 1.6mmbbls about 0.02% of the OIP.

Anyway 'cuppa' finished......I'll leave it there.

That's novel. To assume that someone is protesting against oil exploration whether nimby or green because they know it's going to be hugely successful assumes that the wells drilled to date somehow failed because the oil companies were deliberately not drilling where there was the best, or at least reasonable, chance of success.

There have been many wells drilled historically in the Weald before the anti oil brigade emerged in numbers and not many areas untouched so there is a vast amount of data available to assess where the best places to drill are. Production is concentrated in conventional reservoirs in the Jurassic and isn't generally prolific - Horse Hill Portland production was an outlier - possibly because of the fracturing that initially enabled high oil flows but eventually as reservoir pessure dropped enabled water ingress which has limited production not only because of the cost of disposal but also because the 'cut' rises fast with increased oil production.

The Kimmeridge has been tested few times now and again it looks like the Kimmeridge at Horse is an outlier of sorts - but UKOG's failure to put it into production and an unpublished report by RPS in June 2019, after a fair amount of the Kimmeridge ewt, that ascribed to the billions of barrels Kimmeridge gross 2C resources of 1.6mmbbls. Whilst UKOG have calculated volumetrics for the Portland they have not published their calculation of recoverable oil but have decided the value is £0.8mm - which suggests much lower recoverable oil than the Kimmeridge 2C resources - is the Kimmeridge undeveloped because there is a relatively high risk attached to their 1.6mmbbls contigent resources? After the June 2019 Kimmeridge report (which incidentally UKOG didn't mention until March 2021) UKOG ffectively ignored the Kimmeridge - not drilling HH-2 through it to log it as planned, and planned dual completion of HH-1 didn't happen.

Although the Kimmeridge is referred to as unconventional my view, based on what has been published, is that the production seen is entirely within fracturing within the KLs which at Horsehill, like the Portland is unusually heavily fractured for the Kimmeridge - this fracturing though beneficial to conventional production initially doesn't make the Kimmeridge a candidate for 'unconventional' fracking.

Elsewhere Kimmeridge testing at BB, Lidsey has had poor results, either from flow rates or water ingress . The Balcombe testing by Angus was poorly executed and unfinished, and planning permission for a return has taken years with permission refused.

So there may be a huge amount of oil in place - but that's where most of it is staying.

Just looked again and the area of M48-c1-1 is the same as in your quote - so no idea why the extra -1

'Birini-Gedikasar Production Lease covers an area of 15,322 hectares near the city of Siirt'

It looks like they've applied for the whole block as this production lease (which I assume was a part of the blocks area) ran out in March 2023. Looks like Aladdin aren't the favoured licencee.

From the AME 2022 Annual Report

GEDIKASAR-BIRINI LEASE

Key data:

Details

Exploration License

ARİ/AME-SNR/K/M48-c1-1

Expiry date

March 2023

Also I notice that (also in the 2022 Annual Report) Aladdin are 100% in E Sadak.

Ocelot,

Pinarova - the primary target not mentioned since drilling through it. The working hypothesis didn't work but UKOG are still dangling two carrots in front of the believers - that the oil smell zone warrants testing (or confirming the failed test) - or magically there's a deeper layer that was where the oil in the shotholes came from - presumably that hope confirms there was no oil in the Hoya amplitude anomaly.

Loxley - a CPR that has the fingerprints of UKOG all over it with a UKOG demanded oil price scenario and a flow rate from the producer from another contractor. RPS presumably felt rating the recoverable oil as 'resources' and not reserves warning enough. RPS seem to have poorly technically checked some of the fundamental findings regarding the GWC, and even mis-titled the Alfold Petrophsical Display on page 32 of the PDF.

HH - this is what the HH-2z well found 'natural fractures along the wellbore' the source of the water ingress that overwhelmed oil production. HH-1 also seems to be near a fracture(s?) supplying the approx 36% water cut - the structure appears to be riddled with fractures. There's going to be a high risk of HH-3 intersecting or being close to a fracture.

But of course it isn't success that many want it's 'news' of upcoming activity - always about to be soon (now soon(ish)!). Whilst ocelot appears to lap up UKOG PR and seems to expect success will most sell into spikes before the news becomes results.

Looks like the bit of advice I gave last week (in response to 'what exactly is it that I have said here in the past week penguins that you, ninetails or Rich are taking issue with?') was was pointless becauseit's clear you intend to create a reaction. The advice was 'and perhaps if you stopped making assumptions about what other posters are supposedly doing / thinking and stuck to commenting about UKOG you might not get so much 'response'.

Just looking through your recent posts you're stillclaiming, with a negative connotation, what other poster’s motives or feelings are (‘ruffling yourfeathers’, ‘policing the board’, ‘parnoia’, ‘on a rant’, ‘not fall in love with a stock’, 'all the angst’) – whilst professing to only want to discuss UKOG.

All because you are (in your own words) - 'just trying to make a few hundred quid on a trade and so have no desire to squabble’ and ‘’I have no intention of continuing to butt heads as I have no emotional interest or attachment to UKOG’. - whilst perpetually squabbling.

As for UKOG:- Today's vwap (subject to AD*FN trades being correct) is about 0.0438p. When will YA start converting - if previous CLN activity is anything to go by it will be RNS'd a few days after a spike. Unfortunately for YA they are restricted to 20% of the previous months trade volume so probably only 500 million shares until the end of August - and unless there's a dramamtic increase in trades it will be less in September - this could be a long and painful CLN.

In other news

minimum 5 years before there will be cashflow from the Portland gas project unless it's sold on

2024 before Loxley and HH-3 will be drilled (if successful probably 2026 before first gas sales for Loxley)

3D expected sometime this year needed to determine a target for HH-3

over 3 months since the search for a 7" perforating gun for Pinarova was RNS'd

nearly 5 months since the PPP farm out was RNS'd

6 months since the Loxley CPR

over a year since Loxley's pre planned farm out was initiated

over 2.5 years since UKOG decided HH-2z would be used for water disposal

over 5 years since BB was suspended

Uncleal,

first don't believe buys vs sells - and then wait until the end of the day to see if there's a large share trade.

There's a potential huge seller sitting in the wings - and it's in their interest to get the vwap down in advance of any possible good news where the troops can be organised to pump the share - with field marshal DL on the case.

With £4.6mm PPP could buy half the company, not just 49% of future non HH-1 production from HH! Of course the SP would rise with such buying - but an interesting comparison.

As is the fact that the last raise of £3mm would mean at today's probable vwap approaching 7 billion shares being issued - or nearly a third extra shares - and if there is a rise in the SP YA can sell relentlessly into the pump, and then 'help' the dump to ensure another low vwap.

........says should've in a load of pointless paragraphs in two posts.

With absolutely nothing about UKOG.

Cool.

Shouldvesold,

I aim to amuse.

But at least you agree that this is a discussion board, but then don't seem to understand what 'discussion' is.

You stated an opinion - which is fair enough but then conclude a response to that opinion is because you've ruffled my feathers - by that measure I've ruffled yours.

Of course it's your perogative to depend on a statement by DL that contradicts what a company has RNS'd - as it is mine to not, and explain why.

But in investing it is useful to be correct - for instance you held through the spike just before the swab test results were RNS'd - whereas anybody that expected it to be a failure would have sold - and probably a lot of those professing success to be certain also sold. It's a funny world isn't it, hilarious. Of course being correct doesn't affect the company performance (though elles appears to disagree) it does better predict it - which is why I research thoroughly and question alternative opinions which in the end are often little more than hope.

However UKOG hasn't shelved doing anything at HH for 3 months - they've avoided doing anything except a couple of workovers and required site work, even not converting HH-2z which theoretically would have had a much quicker payback when HH was producing more oil, for the past 3 years.

Ibug,

Bigruss was posting briefly then went back on twitter. A week or so ago he was a steamroller(?) driver following a lot of non-oil accounts(!)

Seems to be repeating conspiracy theory BS that elles is now tweeting as 'John@ChrisIlesXR'

Interesting elles thinks that a company that has serially failed and raised cash by dilution after dilution would be a 'success' if it weren't for a few posters telling the truth about the company and its projects.

If anything the FCA should be investigating those that pump the company and run/hide when they get it wrong.

As for shouldve's UKOG concentrating on legal matters - they're waiting for a decision on HH, and Loxley's been decided. What would they be concentrating on, what to put in the Supreme Court decision RNS? If anything they should be planning how (if) they are going to start work on the Loxley site if a farminee doesn't magically appear.

It's a bit acedemic what DL says as PPP have little cash, are suspended and the agreement isn't agreed but is that only or even because of the Legal challenge? Certainly Alba's take in their recent RNS is somewhatdifferent:- ' As at the date of this report, the shareholders have not approved the farmout' - not PPP waiting for the Supreme Court.

It's seems to be the favoured rampers excuse for UKOG's inaction at HH - now being used by DL - I suppose that's no surprise......

Bubblepoint,

I'm going by the curious language UKOG used when describing the testing of the Germik. They were 'testing' from at least 11 May up to 23 May, we don't know how many runs were made, could multiple attempts affect the outcome?

Firstly in the 23 May RNS

'which indicates that the 4.5-inch perforating guns used have been unable to establish direct contact with the formation through the casing and cement'

why 'direct contact'?

and then they suggested in the interim report that the analysis is an interpretation of the data, which is what any conclusion would be - but that does seem to allow the possibility of an alterntive analysis that the perforating may have penetrated the casing - but the formation, perhaps as expected, was tight.

'that the small 4.5-inch perforating guns had likely been of insufficient power and/or proximity to the casing wall to penetrate 9⅝ inch casing and provide contact with the formation. The tests are thus interpreted to be invalid until such time that larger perforating guns can be deployed in the well to establish proper contact with the formation and the potential hydrocarbon prospectivity correctly assessed.'

But I agree with ZYX that the test is just a BS distraction - the Germik was not considered a reservoir interval before drilling and they the oil smell or oil returned to surface from that interval was not mentioned as until they TD'd and (presumably) found the primary and the interval with oil in cuttings that was swab tested not worth testing. I should add the oil returned to surfave was shown in a tweet just after the swab testing of the upper p[art of the Hoya was RNS'd - but it wasn't mentioned where it came from - Lenigas was fooled, he thought it came from the upper Hoya:-

'David Lenigas@DavidLenigas

Apr 21

Brilliant. This is amazing oil from @UKOGlistedonAIM #UKOG quick look see from their ~50m of oil shows in their new #Turkey #oil well. This looks like very light sweet #crude to me. Any oil company would be happy seeing this. Main target still to come deeper.'

Trish,

Basur- 1 was drilled in 1964, it tested 500bbls of oil and the test was then terminated due to water production. Two or three other wells targeted the Basur structure and then UKOG and AME drilled Basur-3 in 2021 but the well was in the wrong place.

They shot 2 phases of seismic to define another drill target on Basur after that failure but decided to drill Pinarova-1, which was hoped to have oil in the Hoya, but what they saw in that formation since they drilled through it hasn't been mentioned, and they decided to test a shallower interval.

Not sure what powerful piece of machinery you're talking about.

The most likely bit of news, but not guaranteed to be soon (or possibly ever), is that they've found a 7" perforating gun to find out if the original tests were valid - after all this is what UKOG tweeted while that testing was going on:-

'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM

May 16

TURKEY UPDATE: Detailed testing continues at Pinarova-1'

So it was a surprise when 3 months ago they RNS'd that they thought the perforating had failed to reach the formation and would return to perforate using a bigger gun.

Ocelot,

From past experience I'm not sure the lack of an RNS from UKOG can be taken as an indication of a positive outcome, if that's what you're implying.

The time taken for approval of the PPP farm in, nearly 5 months, is perhaps an indication that some of the other investors in HHDL are wary of making a deal with a company that has DL involvement. It may also be that the cost of the deal to PPP places a very low value on the reward of an appraisal well at HH, but the deal costing £4.6mm for ultimately 49% of future producing wells is far higher than UKOG's current NPV of £0.8mm for 86% of HH-1. Seems like a good deal on that basis.

But has the reluctance to ratify the deal been shown to be sensible with PPP currently suspended and the last information on the well hyped by DL (not Pinarova though he did nave a go at that as well), which might have provided an opportunity for a raise, although likely insufficient cashflow to fund the deal, was it didn't flow.

Unsurprisingly there was an excuse about the failed testing method which extended the uncertainty (different excuse but sound familiar?) - although the operator's opinion might not have been as positive - practically gifting the operatorship and 100% paying interest of the well to PPP plus some wells previously shut in due to production in the tens of bopd for an additional $70,000 of incurred well costs plus ongoing rental of equipment at the site.

Like every other apparently ongoing venture we wait for news from UKOG, the exception being the Portland gas storage project where every bit of associated 'news' is tweeted multiple times - for a project consuming UKOG's meagre and costly, in terms of the SP. cash now - but not likely to see any return until the end of this decade unless it's sold on - and certainly not what the majority will have invested in UKOG for.

I had a vague recollection that UKOG in the last Annual Report had stated that the resources at Pinarova were undergoing external review. Had a look and they were:-

'to be confirmed by external technical audit'

but I guess that's academic now as these reserves were in the now unmentioned Hoya amplitude anomaly - but it does avoid scrutiny of the pre drill fantasy of what size resources UKOG were anticipating.

But looking at all the other Reserves and Resources figures many are volumes in reports that are either out of date or not issued, and one only ever mentioned as a foot note (June 2019 RPS Report about HH Kimmeridge).

Here's a footnote about the Portland at Horse Hill - it and the text from above (shown next) are also in the 2021 Annual Report.

'Horse Hill reserve volumes await external CP verification following 12 months of stable production history, see text above.'

This is the 'text above':-

'HH-1 production remains in contingent resource category, as the company requires more data to establish the long-term decline trend of the well'

Although in the 2022 Report UKOG has determined a value of reserves from HH-1:-'The Directors determined that the net present value of the HH-1 well was £0.8 million' and stated perhaps surprisingly 'The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was independently reviewed' - considering that was something preventing an external CP verification.

They also continued to carry net resources for Basur - Resan (of 15.3mmbbls) from the Xodus Report produced just before Basur-3 was drilled:- 'Xodus June 2020, probabilistic based upon range of recovery factors'

and also resources for Horse Hill Portland calculated before the ewt began:- 'Xodus June 2018 less Portland production to end Feb 2023'

So apart from the reserves for Avington and Horndean - provided by the operators and CPR'd every year there are no other reserves and apart from the CPR for Loxley, that has attracted no offers of a farm in so far, few resources reflecting the likely current understanding.

Seems UKOG avoid external scrutiny despite promises of obtaining external reports.

I had a vague recollection that UKOG in the last Annual Report had stated that the resources at Pinarova were undergoing external review. They were - 'to be confirmed by external technical audit', but I guess that's academic now as these reserves were in the now unmentioned Hoya amplitude anomaly - but it does avoid scrutiny of the pre drill fantasy of what size resources UKOG were anticipating.

But looking at all the other Reserves and Resources figures many are volumes in reports that are either out of date or not issued, and one only ever mentioned as a foot note (June 2019 RPS Report about HH Kimmeridge)

Here's a footnote about the Portland at Horse Hill - it and the text from above (shown next) are a repeat from the 2021 Annual Report.

'Horse Hill reserve volumes await external CP verification following 12 months of stable production history, see text above.'

This is the 'text above':-

'HH-1 production remains in contingent resource category, as the company requires more data to establish the long-term decline trend of the well'

Although in the Report UKOG has determined a value of reserves from HH-1:-'The Directors determined that the net present value of the HH-1 well was £0.8 million' and surprisingly 'The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was independently reviewed' - considering that was something preventing an external

They also continued to carry net resources for Basur - Resan (of 15.3mmbbls) from the Xodus Report produced just before Basur-3 was drilled:- 'Xodus June 2020, probabilistic based upon range of recovery factors'

and also resources for Horse Hill Portland calculated before the ewt began:- 'Xodus June 2018 less Portland production to end Feb 2023'

Fraud. That's a strong word, but consider what happened during Pinarova's drilling.

As for no news updates - not always what they seem.

Tweet about planning to test the upper Hoya (8:50 AM · Apr 21, 2023 6,906 Views):-

'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM Apr 21

TURKEY LATEST: Pinarova-1 encountered oil shows in drill cuttings from 358 to 400 metres drilled depth. It has been decided to conduct open hole swabbed flow testing over the weekend. Preparations for testing operations are underway.'

Then a tweet showing a bottle with oil and water in it (1:42 PM · Apr 21, 2023 25.1K Views):-

'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM Apr 21 TURKEY URGENT UPDATE: Oil recovered from Pinarova-1'

A tweet headed 'URGENT UPDATE' 5 hours after mentioning testing..........yet.....

Following reaching TD, the swab test failure, and no mention of the Hoya primary amplitude anomaly at all - 3 May RNS:-

'Plans are now being made to run a conventional selective cased hole flow test operation. The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface and the recovery of light c. 38˚ API oil within fluids returned to surface from the same depth. The sourcing of suitable perforating guns to run in the 9⅝ inch casing is currently underway.'

Then on 4 May (11:10 AM · May 4, 2023 7,494 Views):-

'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM

TURKEY UPDATE: Still awaiting final interpretation at Pinarova-1.'

With a picture of the same bottle of oil as in the 21 April tweet, and captioned '38 API oil (measured by hand held density meter) is recovered from the mud pit after setting the 9 5/8" casing at 289m.'

So was it just a coincidence that the picture of the bottle with oil in it (taken before 18 April when the casing was RNS'd as set) was 'URGENTLY' available to tweet only on 21 April just after announcing the swab testing was planned, but not the layer the oil shown was from.

Shouldvesold,

Not sure there's any point continuing with this 'discussion'. You avoid and deflect and it has nothing todo with UKOG but one last time:-

You claim 1 to 5 'answering themselves' of course they don't. I'll help, but 1 to 5?

Therefore:

You are the only poster posting that negative posters are averaging down.

and

you're also saying no one who has lost faith in the company would average down.

and

You did just make up this quote ' not understanding averaging down' - care to explain why, I guess not?

You also posted 'You specifically asked me to quote the averaging down post, which I provided. To then ask me why I introduced it is blowing my mind lol.'

You previously suggested I was answering for ninetails which is why I pointed out it was you that introduced his post - but I didn't asked why - pointing out it was irrelevant isn't asking why.

Let's hope there's some news tomorrow to halt this descent into shouldevsolds fantasies about other posters, being challenged and then playing the victim....