Member Info for Penguins

Is just quoting 'Trading Keys'.

But should at least comment on the assessment by Trading Keys

'Upcoming events: Loxley-1 appraisal well

Fully funded for upcoming events: yes'

erm - no. They are trying to farm Loxley out. High Court legal challenge beaten in July......no news of farm out that, according to some, was waiting for the High Court decision. Even with a farm out it may not be a full carry so it's a bit pre emptive to

claim they're fully funded.

As for undisclosed PR - what's happening (happened?) with:-

Pinarova - Bigger guns, when or if.

HH-2z - Conversion has been planned and prepared for, last mention was June waiting for EA final approval.

HH- farm out - Alba say the minority HHDL shareholders haven't agreed it, in a RNS. DL has tweeted that PPP hasn't signed up because of waiting for the Supreme Court decision on the legal challenge to the Planning Permission - posters also claim (though UKOG never has) that the HH-2z conversion is also delayeed because of the legal challenge.

Loxley farm-out.

There are multiple things over the years UKOG has previously mentioned that would be updated. Rarely has it happened - most recent being Pinarova 'final' log interpretation and oils comparison in May.

Maybe UKOG is waiting for one of these activities to have good news before updating on possible bad news about another?

but it isn't unreasonable that something will be RNS'd soon given how long it has been since a meaningful update from UKOG on any of these - even I was tempted in the low 0.03's thoughnot because I think it likely any will be particularly, or at all successful.

However there's the £2mm CLN which if they could convert all the initial tranche would be an extra 5 billion shares even at 0.04p. Luckily they're limited to converting 20% of the number of shares of the Company that have traded during the previous calendar month, though previously they appear to have dodged the forward selling ban.

Nevertheless good luck to the brave - P&D's have for the past couple of years been the only way to 'win' but buying in at the low before them has been tricky as some 'experts' have discovered.

There's posters saying that 7.5" guns are expensive, difficult to source, and can't be used at the shallow depth of the target interval. I'm inclined to believe them.

If AME / UKOG were serious about testing this shallow zone quickly a new slim hole drill cased, perforated and using smaller guns would have taken weeks (days?), not months, to get an answer and probably been cheaper.

Or even cheaper / quicker an open hole test.

The question is why didn't they do that? Maybe like so many (all?) UKOG projects hoped for success is likely to be far better than the result.

But the oil smell that became so important was noticed before Pinarova was cased, but presumably they were too focussed on testing the dèeper Hoya that it was dismissed (it couldn't possibly be it was seen as irrelevant?) - until the Hoya was drilled through, upper part swab tested (fail) and what was seen in the main target - the amplitùde anomaly - remains unmentioned.

Maybe they're busy conjuring up a 'working hypothesis' deeper accumulation - they could then test this layer on the way down.........

Bull-ish,

Someone will be selling shares to provide for the buys, it's been the pattern for the last few weeks.

But there will, at some point, be a 'pump', justified or not, then YA / Riverfort will be at the front of the selling queue with pockets stuffed with their 15 day vwap shares - buy and you will have to hope the pump is soon, and strong enough that pi can sell before it fizzles out as any news won't be HH-2z conversion has happened, Loxley drill results, Pinarova testing results or HH-3 drill results - just these things should be happening (and they should be happening anyway) - some hopefully soon, some not until 2024.

'Na...nor me! Zzzzzzzxx'

...............of course you don't..............but somehow you seem to know what I've written.

I'll keep it short - still pretending you're not Adrian I see.

'Adrian sussed him out and told him to fxxx off.'

You must learn to write 'I' instead of Adrian - that wouldn't be petending.

and as you won't read all this here's your 108bopd tweet:-

Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1 Jan 15

#UKOG

OK Let's see who is full of ****e.

I'm calling Ibug out on

@LondonSouthEast . Let's see who's nearest. December /January. #Horsehill production is 108 bopd.

Ibug and [penguin emoji] says HH is down to 49 bopd and declining. Bull****!

Game on!

FOTH'

and you won't be able to find a post where I say 49bopd because it doesn't exist, you just make stuff up - but average production December / January was 61.1bopd / 59.9bopd.

Pretty sure it makes you full of s***e.

'Penguins.

It is you that are living in fantacy wprld pretending you are not a green activist.'

You are pretending to not be Adrian when you are - but I'm not a green activist, so not pretending. I also have over the years gambled - not because the projects are any good, but the P&D's associated with the hope of good news - probably same as you, difference is I don't BS about the projects.

But although it has only been a bit over 8 years the fact is that apart from SP rises based on UKOG claims there haven't been any successes apart from HH-1 which has massively underperformed against UKOG claims.

So I'm not sure that 'fanatical basher of just this share for 10 years' isn't equating 'fanatical basher' with knowledgeable, honest and realistic posting.

You've been claiming since UKOG announced the decision to convert HH-2z in 2021 that it would be happening soon. Yet so far it hasn't happened because they took ages to obtain approvals from the EA (resubmitting the application in early 2022), though this from the Interim report probably explains the continued delay, not Finch:-

'All permit pre-operational measures have now been submitted to the Environment Agency for discharge in line with the permit requirements.'

and it may be that the HSE COMAH work needs to be complete before injection can begin, again from the Interim Report:

'Modifications at the Horse Hill site are continuing in order to comply with The Control of Major Accident Hazards regulations (lower tier), as well as other regulations. Liaison continues ongoing with the Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency ("EA") to ensure the Horse Hill site maintains its regulatory obligations.'

But even UKOG say the savings would only be £250,000 a year in the future - hardly going to turn around the company's fortunes, and the cost of doing it will need cash now.

You got yourself permanently banned by having a spat on the LSE Angus board after already being warned for abusive posting - funny how woke it seems you playing the victim when in fact it's you that keeps breaking the rules of a board you keep choosing to return to, and then whinge about getting re-banned.

You seem to living in a fantasy world where you pretend you aren't davethedrill1 and anybody who takes a realistic view about UKOG is a 'green' or some other activist.

'FOTH clearly has stopped filming tankers leaving'..........really - why not say 'I have stopped......'

So why should anyone believe a word you post - I see you've shut your twitter account - are you 'tidying it up'?

As for tankers - you have been either dishonest or delusional as to the contents of waste tankers - your estimates of production supposedly based on your observations of tankers ( or was it tip offs) has been spectacularly wrong - what was it 108bopd vs an actual about 60bopd - - and then you make up quotes from me when all my posts since May 2018 are there to be seen - apart from those sent into the ether by your and other poster's threads being deleted - so refer to them.

.......and although it isn't ten years, and not every day, you've also mostly ramped, and occasionally deramped UKOG over the past 8 years on here and twitter (and lost your original accounts on both) - and spent a lot of time hanging around outside a well site (or two) usually oblivious to what's going on.

Unlike you even when I'm invested (it's gambling) I tell it like it is - there's plenty of other traders repeating the company PR to suck in the mugs..

Nevertheless perhaps you'd like to point out a post where I've unreasonably 'bashed' UKOG about something that has happened, though that could be difficult as everything UKOG has had a hand in has failed or not got anywhere near 'expectations'.

Though what you hope to achieve ranting about windfarms on here I have no idea.

Adrian,

You are wasting your time / life

If it was just those you characterise as activists of some sort that were responsible for the poor share price performance of UKOG then maybe you would have a real grievance.

But in fact it's because UKOG has serially pretended everything they are involved in will be transformational, of national importance, have huge recoverable volumes of oil.

Pointing out that these claims are not likely to happen, and why, is not 'deramping' it isn't trying to destroy the company - it's a more accurate opinion than UKOG's fantasies.

At the moment the SP is dropping because of at least two things

Firstly not one of UKOG's O&G E&P projects is advancing, accompanied by UKOG's silence, never a good sign despite the spin that posters often try to put on it.

Secondly there is a seller willing to keep selling at a lower and lower price as buyers dry up. - with a CLN holder waiting to dump huge amounts of shares. A coincidence?

UKOG's raise in June was to advance HH and Loxley drilling and HH-2z conversion and further work in Turkey, yet nothing has happened. Are they spending this cash on their pet Portland gas storage project and salaries in the meantime, not forgetting until HH-2z is converted running the HH site / licence at a loss?

According to you one person has stopped UKOG making HH profitable - ridiculous

The reality was clear to see before the legal challenges got underway with a June 2019 report ascribing small resources to the Kimmeridge (with UKOG only revealing those resources 18 months later and nothing else) and HH'2z confirming that fracturing with overwhelming water ingress existed extensively in the Portland. No deepening of HH-2 to 'examine' the Kimmeridge, no HH-1z in the Kimmeridge. Even more telling no HH CPR since before the testing - apart from what (only) NSTA reveal in terms of poor production what else don't they want their owners to know?

Perhaps the greatest indication that HH isn't worth much and is risky is selling 49% of future, non HH-1 production for £4.6mm to a company equally desperate for 'news' rather than worry about results.

Currently unsighed there's DL claiming the legal challenge is stopping PPP in suspension signing up (surely no cash for starters) yet GF of Alba RNSed that the minority shareholders in HHDL haven't agreed the deal.

Your latest claim is that PPP remains in suspension not because the auditors won't sign the accounts off but DL wants suspension to continue until the HH Supreme Court decision is announced. Does that suggest the Texas wells aren't much good and a risky, but rampable, well on HH is all they've got when they next need to raise - with already an extra 60,000,000 shares (60% of shares currently in issue) required to replace shares borrowed from existing share holders for the last 2 raises there's going to be massive dilution coming at some point even without another raise.

Loxley Farm out RNS’d 20/7/2023

was 20/7/2022

There will at some point be an update on something, but catching UKOG’s ‘falling knife’ at the right moment has always been difficult, and sometimes the update isn’t positive, but whatever it is it won’t be HH-2z injection works, successful Loxley drill, HH-3 is a success or Pinarova testing confirms oil accumulation – just another step towards activity.

Posters claimed they expected news on a variety of things ‘soon’ after they were RNS’d:-

HH-2z conversion RNS’d originally in 15/1/2021

Loxley Farm out RNS’d 20/7/2023

PPP farmin to HH RNS’d 28/3/2023

Pinarova 7” perforating gun RNS’d 23/5/2023.

No mention of any of these since the June interim report – which was no news on progress - yet in the interim report’s Chief Executive’s Statement there were 10 paragraphs about the Portland project, 7 about everything else. UKOG’s priorities, though probably not those of Investors.

The HH-2z conversion should save an estimated £250,000 per year. If UKOG had got permission to do it by early 2022 and actually done it that could be about £600,000 saved, less the cost of conversion.

Loxley, if successful, is meant to be worth over £100mm, High Court case won as expected in July.....farm in....still waiting.

At HH UKOG has, according to some posters, not drilled since 2019 because of the legal challenges (though not a claim made by UKOG) – but UKOG always expected to win. If the likelihood of greater success than HH-1 / 2z was real why no further wells – had they lost the earlier challenges UKOG could have appealed that ruling and continued production for years – and possibly re-applied for planning permission retrospectively if PP was revoked to delay any enforced closure. Instead after over 3 years of inactivity they’re in the process of ‘selling’ 49% of future HH production, excluding HH-1, to PPP for £4.6mm to shoot obligation seismic and then contribute what’s left to drilling Loxley.

Suppose it’s better to do nothing than risk confirming the field is a dud?

It was a series of Bouygues (brothers) companies that held a significant percentage of UKOG, initially through the sale of the BB licence for shares, and adding during the build up to the BB drill.

They sold down to below the notification level (3%) - last TR1 on 20 October 2017 when they held about 90,000,000 shares. As they obviously had good advice / knowledge selling in 2017 during the BB testing I doubt they kept any as those shares would now be worth about £30,000 rather than the about £4,000,000 then.

Adrian's bought back in. Will you be lucky this time?

But 'ST have always been positive about about Horsehill since the early days' - is hardly a recommendation of their perspicacity.

Nor 'I saw that interview on twitter DL. I thought what a nice chap' as to yours.

Never mind 0.038p as a mid price with YA / Riverfort pounding the SP and having to keep on doing it in the hope of a P&D. Bound to turn out well.

It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

So buy into a company that is in suspension, a well that didn't flow (no mention of progress with that wells second attempt at testing) and some wells shut in when they dropped to 15 to 20bopd. Suppose that is transformational where UKOG is concerned, with DL BS for ramp fodder eh wizard.

'Clearly going for cash flow from the wells they just bought'

You mean these wells - @ 15 to 20 bopd 'or better'

27 June RNS:- 'The Chalk Talk 1H well has previously produced 55,000 barrels of oil between June 2020 and July 2022 while the Chalk Talk 4H well produced 6,400 barrels of oil between June 2021 and November 2021. Both wells were producing at rates of approximately 15-20 bopd prior to being shut-in and Nobel hopes to restore production to similar levels or better after a thorough evaluation and contingent upon a well workover.

Another e&oe

Should be 'Stopping the dumping of shares'

Whilst the current SP is shocking it does appear to have been assisted by a relentless dumping of shares during an absence of good news. Dumping shares or (good) news should see a rise but even a modest rise with a decent volume of buyers will almost certainly be suppressed by being subjected to YA / Riverfort selling.

Will the sort of news likely be capable of being ramped until they exhaust their permitted volume of share sales, and how will (or if) it be policed. Forward selling appeared to be got round in conversions of past loan note funding.

Some thought around 0.09p looked a good buy in then 0.06p (elles etc). Is 0.04p a good price - UKOG decide what news to RNS, and not necessarily in the order they know it, otherwise if the seller decides to stop selling that should help.

The eventual outcome of UKOG's activities can be better predicted by research but the 'games' with the SP are unpredictable, obviously something no one here who thinks the projects are poor (or good) has previously thought of and invested unwisely - apart from everyone.

I'll take it as a yes.

'though SS claims it's because of the legal challenge to planning permission'

should of course be

'though DL claims it's because of the legal challenge to planning permission'

So 2 posts, one about having nothing to say about UKOG until the Supreme Court proceedings - October hopefully - and then another about other posters.

I'm guesssing that you've broken your rule of only wanting to post about UKOG, especially as there was no need to post.

I'm also guessing that you're making up a narrative about other posters to infer that they are bitter about losing money inveting in UKOG to try and discredit their comments. Not sure why a poster claiming to be 'neutral' would do that.

Perhaps you've broken the golden rule having bought in when the road to Pinarova was RNS'd / tweeted - in mid-March. Lots of positivity about how successful it was going to be at over 0.0625p? Maybe you averaged down like you claim others have done.

As for UKOG - A month since the short delay in PPP accounts, not a good look and going to delay any farm-in, though SS claims it's because of the legal challenge to planning permission, which will come first PPP out of suspension or the court ruling.

Coming up for 15 weeks since the hunt for a bigger gun commenced. From what other posters have said it would have been much quicker and probably cheaper to drill a slim hole and test that. It was 15 weeks after 7 Feb when the perforating gun hunt started - that was before the site and road prep commenced, let alone drilling.

Otherise over a year since the pre-planned Loxley farm out was initiated. Posts expecting it to happen soon after were eventually replaced by posts saying it hadn't happened because of the legal challenge to Loxley's planning permission, which on 20 July was determined in UKOG's favour. Seems there wasn't anyone 'lined up' to farm in the moment the challenge was rejected.

Otherwise in a news void ocelot is finding anything that appears vaguely positive - recently - agribusiness geothermal at HH (costs? cashflow forecast?), GF of Alba keen for a farm in yet the PPP farm in not agreed by HHDL partners because HH is not making a profit to pay back loans to HHDL shareholders and a coup in Gabon.

Unfortunately where drilling testing or even production is concerned UKOG's silence has most definitely not been golden where drilling testing or even production since Broadford Bridge in 2017.

'Note he goes on to say the drilling of more vertical wells would up the production at HH enabling the shareholders in HHDL to get some payback for their investment.'

O f course, and so far drilling at HH has been so successful - but it's interesting it's 'vertical' wells - is it too risky to drill another horizontal - but HH-1 has shown vertical is no guarantee of completely avoiding water ingress even though it took a while, presumably because the fracture was some way from the well.

Money paid by shareholders to HHDL is accrued as a loan to HHDL so it looks like Alba and Doriemus did not pay their full way as the amount owed to Alba by HHDL has only risen by about £20,000 in 21/22 more than the 0.1% interest on the loan - though the 0.1% interest on what's owed to Alba and Doriemus is below the detail recorded in the accounts. .

From the latest annual accounts-

'At 30 September 2022, the outstanding loan balances owed to HHDL’s shareholders were; Alba Mineral Resources PLC (Alba) £2.54 million (2021: £2.52 million), Doriemus PLC (Doremius) £0.57 million (2021: £0.57 million) and UK Oil & Gas Plc £16.59 million (2021: £16.03 million). The loans are payable on determination by the Board of HHDL. The loans currently attract an interest rate equivalent to the Bank of England base rate, which was 0.1% during the year.'

UKOG paid considerably more to HHDL - racking up an additional £0.5mm to their loan. Alba with 18.1% relative to UKOG's 77.9% equity in HHDL should have contributed over £100,000 as their share. But the fact UKOG had to pay in just over £500,000 suggests that HH-1 production didn't cover HH costs 21/22 even with Brent averaging close to $100 per barrel end September 2021 to end September 2022 - HH-2z saving £250,000 will help....but.....

There have been mixed messages about this deal from those involved, what the sticking point is isn't clear.

To start with there are 3 outliers to the way that PPP might be given 49% equity in the HH licences.

Probably the most equitable would be giving 49% of HHDL's 65% and 49% of UKOG's direct 35% interest to PPP.

But it could also be supplied by UKOG giving all 35% of their direct interest to PPP and the other 14% provided from HHDL's 65%.

and likely to not be on the table - giving PPP all their 49% from HHDL's 65% meaning they would be the largest shareholder in HHDL (just over one 75%) and effectively operator of the licence.

The first might be most attractive to UKOG, the second to Alba and Doriemus (assuming they want to maximise their post farm in equity), and the third most attractive to PPP. Each will end up with very different equity positions in the licence for UKOG, Alba and Doriemus.

But there are endless different ways to provide PPP 49% equity in the licence which in itself might be a sticking point.

But the way the equity is provided may be just one of many other negotiating points. Did UKOG negotiate the deal with PPP without reference to the HHDL shareholders? Alba's initial reaction suggested they weren't involved in discussions.

Perhaps £4.6mm isn't considered enough for the 49% as it might not cover the full cost of 3D and HH-3 meaning Alba and Doriemus having to agree to stumping up their share of an open ended committment if the £4.6mm runs out- could Alba being obliged to pay their way be a sticking point (assuming they aren't currently).

Possibly the intermediate 7% equity in the licences is considered too high by Alba just for shooting the 3D which may, in the end, be all PPP do.

Is PPP considered too flakey to sign a deal with (currently suspended and needing success in a US well that in the testing revealed so far failed to flow), is DL's involvement not so welcome by the other HHDL shareholders.

OPEX splitting between HH-1 and any later wells - and assuming HH-3 and other wells produce water - payment for water disposal in HH-2z.

Of course DL claimed that it isn't signed up because of the ongoing legal challenge, so maybe clauses associated with that concluding in HHDL's favour are causing problems.

I've posted previously that because of the risk of water influx this deal appears to be good for the current equity holders, but the devil is in the detail, and how much that matters unless the well is 'successful' for longer than a short ewt - which may be all DL cares about.