Member Info for Penguins

Trish,

If you had looked beyond that heading which in full was:-

‘Launch of UK's first Hydrogen Ecosystem map for South West and Wales’

You would have found a page where they link updates to the map on www/western-gateway.co.uk where there’s this notice:-‘This website has been archived and is no longer monitored’

and that ‘The UK Government took the decision to withdraw funding for Pan Regional Partnership in March 2025.'

Not sure that the south of England is a priority for government vs their focus on the NE, NW, East and Scotland.

'UKOG (UKEn) are so well positioned for this.'

or to be honest UKOG aren't well positioned with a potential site in Dorset miles away from where the Project Union will reach (eventually) and a site in East Yorkshire that is near to Aldbrough where SSE / Equinox have cavern storage with advanced plans to extend the site for hydrogen storage.

The question is are UKOG just going through the motions with these two sites - why they have yet to RNS that they have signed a lease for either site.

Reading all the hydrogen information released by the government this year the near term focus for hydrogen will be near the industrial heartlands of the UK, and mentions of the NE, NW and East coast - even Scotland -but no mention of Southern England - echoed by the HAR 1 awards and by most of the shortlisted HAR2 applicants.

The updated hydrogen strategy paper - expected Autumn 2025 so as most hydrogen actions by government late - may finally put paid to UKOG's ambitions for the first storage round - those banking on a pump based on a 'rampy' UKOG RNS need that to happen soon.

TH2,

the increase to 3682649970 was on 3 December or 10.089930%

the decrease to below 10% was on 5 December apparently they don't have to own up to how many shares they hold in TR1 when they're below 10% because they're holding as a market maker.

Was it just to make those that don't look at the details look stupid that UKOG released them in the wrong order?

Sarir,

You posted 'National Gas will be using part of this budget to engineer large scale Hydrogen transport and storage upgrade facilities' could you point out where 'storage upgrade facilities' was stated as I can't find anything about this in either NG or Ofgem press releases - though as NG aren't involved in storage facilities I'm not surprised.

Separately in mid November NG did confirm that they'd received additional funding for the regional network in the North of England and Scotland.

'On Friday 14 November, Ofgem announced an additional £107 million of funding for two new projects, adding to £57 million confirmed in June for Project Union: East Coast'.........'The two new projects will lay the groundwork to connect regional hydrogen industrial clusters in the North of Scotland, including Grangemouth, and the North East and North West of England. Funding for the East Coast section was announced in June and will connect critical industries across Teesside and the Humber region.'

As for RIIO-3 this is an extract from 'RIIO-3 Final Determinations – National Gas Transmission':-

'As per the Investment Decision Pack Guidance, any submissions that supported the development of new hydrogen networks or the conversion of existing natural gas networks to hydrogen were outside the scope of RIIO-3 and have been deemed unjustified.'

Reading this and other documents issued by ofgem supporting the RIIO-3 determinations the cash appears to be to maintain the existing natural gas network only.

So ocelot thinks no one else has worked out that every now and then there's a P&D - and it's always a P&D because the rises are on false hope - it's not only the pumpers that realise to get out - the Ukognoscenti know for certain that the plans / claims etc aren't leading to anything - btw if I ever saw some light in the gloom I'd say so - in fact very occasionally I have - only as the project progressed realising that the carefully chosen information was incomplete.

Timing is difficult but I wouldn't bet on the current SP being the bottom before the next P&D - there's the possibility of bad news arriving in the shape of the Hydrogen Strategy Update, a sure sign would be links appearing on enthusiasts posts but no excerpts as has happened in the last few hydrogen news items .

Was it what UKOG reckoned (full of Ukognoscenti with zero shares bought willingly) when they raised recently, they might as well flog the last few shares for as much as possible - ocelot likes to remind us every now and then of the obvious that raising with a higher price means less shares used for a given amount of cash, or as what could have happened more cash for the shares available.

Ocelot,

Great idea.

There's a few posters that need looking into here - those that continually claim they're buying to encourage others to buy, those that whilst saying the SP is going to continue to rise then sell, and those that make stuff up to make it look like the company will prosper in the future.

I get the feeling there's one particular long time poster that does all three, and it isn't ocelot.

Though the most severe penalties should be reserved for companies boards - for example issuing RNS that don't give a reasonable account of what has happened, wildly optimistic claims about projects, shenanigans with raises and loans, and maximising EBT holdings to confound voting - all things that can be detrimental to the share holders.

ZYX,

Currently maybe because they know how unlikely the hydrogen sites are to get revenue support, previously it would have been how risky their O&G ventures were despite glowing reports of progress.

Why else raise immediately on the recent rise, and even raise again after the SP had dropped back - if the future was as bright as some posters claim and UKOG suggest why not wait for the guaranteed rise on the next bit of supposed good news - though the share price chart illustrates that there never has been any good news in respect of the projects - even if carefully chosen news has driven the SP up for a while.

They are probably nervous about what the updated hydrogen Strategy, expected before the year's end, might say with all the recent hydrogen related government announcements highlighting the North East, East and North West of England because of the numerous wind farms, HAR1 supported and HAR2 shortlisted hydrogen projects, and the nearby industrial heartlands - far from what you might expect when the enthusiasts link them.

It may be that UKOG has been given a draft of the Hydrogen Strategy Update.

Then the Ceraphi deal to take on the Broadford Bridge well and site could fail and UKOG landed with the site restoration and well abandonment.

Pretending that because the SP is low it can't drop further - there's been many posts in the past claiming a new 'bottom' only for the SP to drop - doesn't take into account the many risks facing UKOG and possibility of bad news.

Ocelot,

'the second £2m was subsequently raised by potential investors approaching the company.'

That would be great if any of them were 'investing' in the company - but they weren't - it was just a quick trade, possibly on the back of a short, knowing that there's plenty of mugs out there to buy the shares - before they even know they're buying them - and that the price will drop because there's no real news so get out fast - just hyped PR jumped on by the P&D ramping squad pulling in punters with no idea that Project Union wouldn't be troubling Southampton for a long while, and the East Yorkshire site would be competing with an established gas storage site already advancing an expansion for hydrogen storage.

UKOG did have a CLN lined up - though it's likely they had the NG MOU ready to announce and probably hoped what happened happened.

Not sure how great it is that the value of the company is mostly the cash it has just raised - the market appears to have the measure of the likelihood of UKOG gaining support for either potential site.

But the BoD is sitting pretty, they'll probably do as little as possible on either site to conserve funds for their salaries,

Expect more threads and, after a year of silence RNS, in some way mentioning Horse Hill and less mentioning hydrogen as the penny drops amongst the faithful that none of the linked information has any relevance to UKOG.

The latest tweet tried to suggest that hydrogen was mentioned in the budget speech, it was, but not in the way the quote from the North Sea Future Plan document suggested.

Cynderlad,

You're right, the backpeddling on the transport and storage rounds (originally slated for 2024) with awards which would have been made by now, may well be because of the realisation that the huge investment in pipelines and cavern storage for hydrogen could so easily become 'white elephants' because of emerging technologies for storing energy that won't require years of construction nor miles of pipelines or, more importantly, huge government exposure to revenue guarantees.

The government when referring to 'clean energy' is referring to electricity and is already encouraging upgrades to the grid - far easier to ferry electricity to smaller widespread local storage with already in place infrastructure (the electricity grid), and of course hydrogen no longer appears to be favoured for home heating. Whilst there is already an extensive pipeline network for natural gas the domestic usage for central heating will require that infrastructure to remain dedicated for some time into the future.

Tossalot,

I'm sure that 'admission to trading' is something that UKOG short term 'investees' have found ways to circumvent every time they've found themselves with shares that are much cheaper than the ones they've just sold.......

Perhaps most telling is that unusually neither of them have cut and pasted any extracts, apart from the one UKOG chose - which omitted the sentence start which referenced section 3.1.4:- 'Section 3.1.4 sets out the steps we are taking to put the UK in a strong position to capitalise on the full economic potential of its hydrogen sector.'

It's hard to find anything positive for UKOG - even the publication of the Hydrogen Strategy Update 'working to publish an updated UK Hydrogen Strategy' will be a moment of high risk for UKOG if the government clearly states where for the early 2030's hydrogen storage is likely to be required - and therefore likely to be chosen for revenue support.

How far UKOG has got with securing the 'potential' site close to the Aldbrough storage site where SSE / Equinor are advancing planning permission to extend for hydrogen storage isn't known, but it's not difficult to guess which project might secure government revenue support even if UKOG start hyping it.

Presumably ocelot and TH2 hope no one reads section 3.1.4 as in reality UKOG is not 'at the centre of it forming the solution'.

The only mention of locations in that section were in the very first sentence:-

'Hydrogen will be critical to regional growth. It will play a particularly important role in the UK's industrial regions, including those on the North Sea in Scotland, the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber' - and of the 127 pages about 3 are directly addressing hydrogen - that includes a page in the responses annex.

As usual the mention of hydrogen is all these are interested in - the words around it seemingly not to be of consequence as was clear in the excitement over the £500,000,000 announcement in summer trailed as investment in hydrogen infrastructure but where the government expected it to be spent was 'in industrial regions such as Merseyside, Teesside and the Humber'.

...and of course there's Project Union, a central element of NG's MOU, which will be part of the first regional transport network in the East and North East of England for the early 2030s - when it gets to Southampton, 80km from Weymouth, nobody knows.

Ocelot,

ask yourself - where are the windfarms in England that generate this excess energy?

I'll give you a clue - mainly the East and West coast of England - there's one off the coast of Brighton.

...and where in England has green and blue hydrogen production been supported - the green being most relevant for the excess power problem?

Another clue - mainly in the NW and NE.

Where is the first regional transport network planned to be to move around the hydrogen from production to storage and to the heavy industry that is expected to use it?

Yet another clue - in the NE & E

Puts the location of UKOG's most advanced (has a desk study by DEEPKBB) South Dorset 'potential' storage site in focus.

Ocelot,

It's taken them 17 months (18 if they meet their own deadline) to get round to starting to sort out the planning for Horse Hill - obviously wasn't a priority while they could BS about hydrogen storage. When it shut down water cut was over 50% and trending upwards - though reducing oil production did lowered the water cut a little.

Whilst being shut in for 2 years (by the time HH planning is sorted) will probably see a temporary improvement in oil production chances are rates will have to be throttled back quickly to the last seen levels of around 30 bopd and dropping to avoid catastrophic water influx. Expect as in the past to only hear the initial rates then silence from UKOG with only the delayed NSTA figures for what happened next.

As I've previously stated a ramp up in PR about Horse Hill by UKOG will signal that UKOG has started to acknowledge their hydrogen fantasy is about to hit the buffers of reality - ocelot leads the charge.......

Even their latest 'hydrogen' tweet is suggesting that something from The North Sea Future Plan was from the budget when in fact it was a sentence referencing a section in that plan about hydrogen where it was clear the government's priority for hydrogen infrastructure was in the industrial areas of the North and East of England.

Not sure in what reality anyone would think a North Sea Future Plan paper would in any way be encouraging to UKOG and their Dorset site - hopeless....

But the pointers are there for the Hydrogen Strategy Update:-

'The development of hydrogen hubs and industrial clusters was identified as a key opportunity. Respondents pointed to regions such as Teesside, the North East, and the East of England as ideal locations due to existing infrastructure and proximity to offshore wind Port and maritime opportunities were highlighted, including hydrogen ready ports, bunkering infrastructure, and vessel cold ironing. Respondents saw strong potential in port centric regions for hydrogen logistics and services.'

The full text of UKOG's tweet is- 'Section 3.1.4 sets out the steps we are taking to put the UK in a strong position to capitalise on the full economic potential of its hydrogen sector.'

Th[s is from the start of Section 3.1.4:-

'Investment certainty

Hydrogen will be critical to regional growth. It will play a particularly important role in the UK's industrial regions, including those on the North Sea in Scotland, the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber. The policies announced in the Clean Energy Industries Sector Plan on hydrogen will ensure the UK maximises the growth opportunity presented by the sector, delivering growth and offering a critical route to decarbonisation. The UK has made significant progress in deploying hydrogen over the past few years. Our approach must continue to reflect the latest evidence to ensure that hydrogen achieves its unique role in our Clean Energy Superpower and Growth Missions. This is why we are:

• working to publish an updated UK Hydrogen Strategy. The Strategy will set out our vision and objectives for hydrogen. It will be grounded in evidence and set out clear priorities for collaboration with industry, to continue to transform ambition into action.'

Laura,

The £500,000,000 was announced in July and was to 'help deliver clean energy while creating thousands of skilled jobs in industrial regions such as Merseyside, Teesside and the Humber, as well as in the supply chain.'

and the over £2 billion is for HAR 1 projects awarded support in 2024 - mainly hydrogen production in the north of the UK .

Whilst UKOG has mentioned they are trying to secure a site near Aldbrough that's the location of SSE / Equinor's natural gas cavern storage site where they have already started the process of applying fo planning.

Suspect the low key tweet from UKOG reflects the absence of anything for UKOG - if there's any capitalising on the hydrogen sector it will be in the North of England.

tossalot,

Whilst you're pointing out that someone doesn't know what they're posting about perhaps you should check the wording of Peel Hunt's listing as they aren't acting as nominees (an obvious word missing in the listing) - they're a market maker and as long as the share holding is through their activities as a market maker they only have to declare holdings in TR1 above 10%. What is odd is that in UKOG's list they had dropped below 10% after the TR1 showing a holding over 10% - but didn't TR1 it, maybe they felt the disclosure to UKOG was enough?

TH2

still making stuff up

Found 3 mentions of hydrogen in the budget speech as published, 2 to do with carbon capture for non-green hydrogen, one to do with green hydrogen - there was also a mention in a footnote - in reference to the £500 million mentioned in July for the 'major infrastructure boost will help deliver clean energy while creating thousands of skilled jobs in industrial regions such as Merseyside, Teesside and the Humber, as well as in the supply chain.;

As for your £3.8billion - that's money already spent and none on hydrogen storage,:-

'including through the National Wealth Fund, which has deployed £3.8 billion in its first year and is expected to catalyse over £70 billion of private investment in high-growth sectors at the heart of the government’s industrial strategy.'

Laura,

The government has already announced that the regional transport network they are supporting initially for the early 2030's is in the North and East. Did you not read the NG MOU:-

'Project Union's first phase, scheduled for operation by 2032, aims to connect the East Coast hydrogen cluster (Teesside to Humberside) with an envisaged routing to connect with UKEn's East Yorkshire hydrogen storage project.'

Except of course the envisaged routing is to connect to SSE/Equinor's Aldbrough hydrogen storage extension.

Also this in the July 2025 £500 million announcement:-

'The government has confirmed that the spending review allocated landmark new funding to create the UK’s first regional hydrogen transport and storage network, connecting hydrogen producers with vital end users, including power stations and industry for the first time.

This major infrastructure boost will help deliver clean energy while creating thousands of skilled jobs in industrial regions such as Merseyside, Teesside and the Humber, as well as in the supply chain. '

&

'Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said:

We are investing over half a billion pounds in our industrial heartlands to deliver jobs and energy security for Britain. By building hydrogen networks, we are securing homegrown energy that will power British industry for generations to come.'

Industrial heartlands - doesn't sound like Dorset does it, heavy industry users like Cream Tea cafes, holiday parks and breweries.

As for RWE and NG they aren't getting any nearer to west of Weymouth than the Solent some 80km away...

I think ocelot meant:-

"The company's prospects of limping along and paying salaries until the next raise have improved beyond recognition since 1st October".

Unfortunately it's the same old gang running the company with a couple of hydrogen storage 'potential' sites that are, for different reasons, in the wrong place.

They can spend what they like on reports but they will still be in the wrong place - how clear will that become when the updated hydrogen strategy paper is published? How much hype / BS about Horse Hill UKOG tweet and RNS will be an indication of UKOG's take......

Ocelot,

I think that was - can't meet its liabilities with the cash that remained.

eg from a post of mine 17 June 2025:

'The return to trading will indeed see a clear out in the accounts of the fantasy intangible assets which UKOG surely knew (or should have) were unlikely to be made tangible and no doubt the report will explain how the company can continue to trade and meet commitments by selling billions of shares, as it always has.'

or this, another angle from 'July':-

.............with UKOG the next RNS is likely to be for a GM / AGM to authorise doubling the shares in issue and/or making the EBT up to 10% to ensure getting the proposal passed - and then followed by a massive CLN - UKOG's favourite way to destroy the SP - after all judging by posting history TH2 is a willing buyer as the SP collapses.

'With no launch of the first hydrocarbon storage round expected until 2026 UKOG will need to get at much cash as possible to last until 2026.'

OK in the end they managed to hype the NG MOU so the CLN they had lined up wasn't used - it was mentioned in the interim report:-

'and secured key commercial terms with a finance provider for a credit facility that it envisages will be finalised shortly' though they certainly raised as much cash as possible.

Ocelot,

That cash will disappear just like every other penny UKOG has got their hands on - then what's left - the extremely high risk that neither site will get chosen for revenue support though in the meantime UKOG will waste the cash generating news about the sites without acknowledging that their Dorset site is in the wrong place for the first round,and East Yorkshire will be competing against established gas storage companies also looking for support - at what point will the PR BS switch to promoting the restart of Horse Hill - when the updated Hydrogen Strategy is released?

Trish - UKOG has raised cash for 10 years on the basis they might succeed with projects doomed to failure before they start - UKOG paying for reports based on information provided by UKOG showing ridiculous valuations or resources that ignore risk and/or no review of the information provided.

However there have been reports and analysis UKOG haven't released - eg. a Kimmeridge report in June 2019, mentions in ARA of cashflow and production forecasts at HH - both probably contradicting expectations made they don't want to dispel.

To me it's impossible that UKOG did not know that they promoted outcomes that were highly unlikely without stressing the risks.

On previous behaviour UKOG could well be aware that the likelihood of either hydrogen storage site getting revenue support is very low whilst continuing to release positive tweets and spending cash on activities to keep pi on the hook.

Of course if you're not invested for the future but just for P&Ds then stop pretending otherwise - in fact that applies to almost all the rampers that claim how successful UKOG will be - just as they, or previous ramping cohorts - have claimed about every previous failed project.