The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
1000% rise guaranteed (assuming the SHs agree to it) next Monday morning - whoopee. Unfortunately not because of a UKOG success but a consolidation.
...........and it comes with the added bonus of an extra 50% shares they can hand over (mostly) in exchange for the remainder (£1.16mm) of the possibly already spent £2.5mm CLN, opportunities to average down without the risk of the SP being taken below the new nominal price for a long time.
and there's UKOG taking the 'committed' £500,000 before 16 Feb, although if 'committed' is the same as UKOG 'planning' something, maybe not
SRBS,
The timing of farming into Turkey (July 2020) was a distraction from HH as in the June 2020 Interim Report UKOG finally admitted that the repair to HH-2z hadn't worked and producing a lot of water, and UKOG knew, but didn't reveal, that HH was producing a lot of water as well.
More likely UKOG realised that HH was a dud , hence doing nothing there since, and needed a new story to spin - and they also would have known that E Sadak wasn't very good (lookalike to Basur-Resan) which is probably why they didn't give any details of its production, and compared it to fields in Kurdistan.
Not sure that anyone should have any sympathy for SS.
Does anyone believe that anything they do in the Kimmeridge at Loxley and Horse Hill will expand on the knowledge that they already have from the cored, logged and extensively tested Kimmeridge in BB-1/z.
Waiting for Loxley and Horse Hill is just an excuse for doing nothing since early 2018 in this retention application - which may seem plausible to planners not aware of the huge amount of data collected in the drilling and months of testing already.
They just want to hang on to the site as there's scope to string along punters with promises of further work 'in the future' - which, if it's after HH and Loxley, it might require a further extension assuming they get this extension.
If the other site uses are viable why haven't they fleshed out what those plans are to investors in the nearly 6 years since BB testing ended.
As for Portland gas storage it looks like a vanity project that, as I've previously posted, may be an opportunity for a sinecure / escape route for SS by floating/selling it off from UKOG.
NP,
all true - but UKOG has over the years over stated the likelihood of success, and for the one success(ish), HH, made claims during testing about production that weren't ever reached (or likely ever to be), and has never RNS'd oil / water daily production or a production forecast since soon after production began nearly 4 years ago.
UKOG has avoided scrutiny of HH by not getting a CPR on it - preferring to get reports, and making internal calculations that they use but don't publish.
UKOG influenced parts of the Loxley CPR (gas price resulting in the highest NPV and single well production level) and there is one definite erroneous conclusion, which importantly justifies the GWC inferred at Alfold which in turn justifies the closure UKOG map and thus the volumetrics that feed into the NPV.
As for Turkey it was (and is) disgraceful how they failed to reveal any production details of the E Sadak field despite it being operated by AME and described as a lookalike to Basur. In their 2022 Annual report AME reported 0.5mmbbls 'reserves' and 250bopdproduction from multiple wells, did UKOG do any due diligence on what they were told about E Sadak? As for Pinarova drilling downdip of a well that tested oil cut water was never going to work, but UKOG persisted for 8 months with the sham that testing a zone with an oil smell was worthwhile - coincidentally when there was nothing else happening.
But not everyone is able to understand and scrutinise UKOG's claims and thus rely on the honesty of SS when he proclaims how good every new project is and those that predicted failure, and justified why, have been repeatedly ridiculed as 'greens. nimby's ctc on this board and elsewhere and even blamed for the poor share price - as if being right about the likelihood of failure caused the failure.
Shhhh.
Once upon a time that many shares were worth £10,000.
I sometimes wonder, when ocelot informs the board UKOG has the highest number of trades that day, or another poster rejoices in a 50,000,000 buy, whether they realise that a SP of just over a hundredth of a penny means 50,000,000 shares cost little more than £5,000.
Maybe ocelot has the SP filtered along with anyone who doesn't think everything UKOG does is fantastic and failure is always a precursor to success, because UKOG says it is.
Ibug,
'Is it going to be another day of 0.011 0.012 ?'
Obviously not. Way things are going it will be cheaper to buy in the market than UKOG can 'make' those golden tickets for. I wouldn't know if, or how many, any other companies have managed to get their SP below nominal value - but UKOG is sure trying.
Ocelot,
Doesn’t it worry you that UKOG value the undrilled part of the HH field 14.25 times the value of a well they have years of data for – and have choosen not to get a CPR done for HH that would provide an independant view of HH.
But nothing appears to worry ocelot.
Another consideration is that if PPP farm in then UKOG will only have half its present equity in non-HH-1 production (if successful). If PPP don't farm in UKOG will need to raise £4.6mm (+?) to shoot the 3D then drill HH-3.
ZYX,
The CLN holders already have £1.16mm to be conveted so the £500,000 due before 16 Feb is just more shares needing to be issued when requested.
Could UKOG issue shrodinger shares that do and don't exist until RNS'd while the SP is above the nominal value, or even below the current nominal value if that happened, but RNS'd after 16 February, re-priced and above the new nominal value.
Otherwise surely there is a provision in the contract as to what happens if UKOG can't issue shares.
Noticable they RNS'd the GM notice almost certainly after they knew that Pinarova was a dud and expected the SP would crash on that news, though the lack of shares to hand over to the CLN holders was an issue after the CLN RNS on 23 Jan as that soaked up the available shares.
As for the GM resolutions UKOG have voters with a gun to their head, though they could have been honest as to what appears to be the reason for the GM - no authority to issue more shares, little headroom above the nominal value with the possibility of going below and still a lot of loan note debt to clear.
Given the 8,438,550,000 shares they had authority to issue when the SP was around 0.07p in early May 2023 getting to 16 February 2024 having raised £3.75mm but still 'owing' shares for £1.66mm of that is not a great result, though probably more of a disaster for pi than UKOG.
Vernonya,
The consolidation is 10 to 1, but it's combining that with the nominal value dropping to a hundreth of the current nominal value that could enable the SP to drop around another 99% before hitting the new 'floor'.
UKOG's problems are the SP being close to the nominal value, all the authority to issue shares at the 2023 AGM is used up and there being (assuming the £500,000 tranche of loan was taken in November, but not mentioned in the January loan note RNS) about £1.16mm of loan notes out there, and another £500,000 tranche before 16 February.
But assuming everything is passed.
After the GM, with authority to issue 50% more shares, UKOG will be free to issue shares against loan notes even if the vwap had dropped below 0.01p before 16 Feb - the new price, 0.1p, above the old nominal value of0.01p, and vastly above the new revised nominal value of 0.0001p.
and thus the death spiral could continue.
If they could agree a deal with the CLN holders who after 16 February would, assuming UKOG haven't exceeded their authority to hand out shares before that, have £1.66mm of notes to convert.
Not sure what the vwap has been over the past couple of dayx but assuming it's about 0.000125 then that would mean over 13 billion shares, plus 4.5% taking it to just under 14 billion shares. Then there's all those warrants (+33%), though they're priced at +40% -- that's 4,5billion shares priced ar 0.0175p. - and of course there's already a lot of warrants issued at higher prices.
Then there's the option for £2 million more loan notes.
Confetti factory is in overdrive. Assuming the consolidation is approved those share numbers are divided by 10 - but the percentage of the company remains the same.
Ocelot,
Maybe if you didn't filter almost all non rampers you might realise that UKOG's projects are up s**t creek - currently without a paddle.
Possibly no wells drilled this year, maybe HH-2z converted and some seismic shot, and lots of tweets about Portland port.
Situation normal, UKOG stringing along pi for another year - faithfully repeated here.
Ocelot,
the only assets that have proven reserves are HH-1, Horndean (10%) and Avington (5%) when it restarts production.
in the last annual report these totalled £1.73mm. Plus about £2mm of 'decommissioning asset (?) and property, plant and equipment. Seems that's what the market recognises - mcap £3.7mm.
The rest is mostly expenditure chasing unicorns - but UKOG don't give details apart from future value of HH (£11.4mm) based on further drilling and hope - but possibly not based on the 43% they'll end up with after a PPP farm in if it happens and PPP drill HH-3 - oh, and it's successful. The remainder is presumably money spent in Turkey, Loxley and possibly some for BB and the Portland project.
Still, as long as ocelot believes.........
You hope
Loxley, there's been no mention of any interest since July 2022 when the 'pre-planned' farm out was initiated; HH, not this week and if PPP have bad news before then, having been silent about the two workover wells since early December, that may be seen as a negative.
Bit of excitement but UKOG will depend on others to move forward on Loxley or HH.
and as long as they get their authority for issuing 50% more shares at the GM there soon could (will) be loads more shares just from the CLN so far (the number depends on about £1.16mm divided by the SP and consolidation) - and they are committed to take £500,000 more before 16 Feb according to the CLN RNS in June.
SRBS,
Originally the deeper accumulation was the Hoya amplitude anomaly they were targeting with Pinarova. Because nothing was found in the Hoya it became maybe the formation they just tested, but before the test they covered the failure with suggestions of a deeper accumulation tbut they don't know where it is.
It's trying to string things out and claim Pinarova wasn't a complete waste of time as some posters have suggested since it was decided to drill it.
UKOG never even presented a proper map of Pinarova, and Kezer with it's 'heavy' oil cut was said to be at the apex of the structure so chasing that will only repeat that result, and Pinarova was only 400 metre away.
According to the RNS there's still £1,300,000 of the loan notes to be converted.
Ibug recently calculated that since the AGM UKOG have issued 8,438,550,000 shares and also pointed that exactly matched the authority to issue shares.
So any shares issued under the loan note before the GM will exceed the authority the Bod has to issue shares.
With a share price of 0.011p the authority requested to issue 50% more shares (regardless of the 10 to one consolidation) will have a value of about £1,650,000.
So if the loan notes are converted which is money already received by UKOG and probably spent there's little left for new raises and if UKOG take the February £500,000 CLN instalment UKOG would again require more authority if the SP remains at this level.
So the authority requested by UKOG to issue shares at the GM far from enabling further fund raising appears to be to cover mostly loan notes already issued, and at the current SP insufficient to cover the supposedly committed to £500,000 before 16 February - any coincidence that's the date of the GM?
Adrian.
you do post BS:-
'When i tweet a decent video . Say of a rig arriving at HH. My tweet gets 1000s of hits :)
Its because they are informative. And as you know Sanderson and PR are crap. So silent Steve makes me populare on twitter with investors and swampies alike. This site use to be good for shareholders but woke Craig in admin and you greens have driven them over to out and in to telegram groups etc.
FOTH 🤠👀'
Can’t remember you posting a video here....and when you tweeted videos of rigs or tankers you chose when to tweet them to your advantage (as pboo has pointed out) – and for tankers speculated about production increasing significantly – when it has more often dropped.
Once upon a time maybe people believed you and thought there was a chance that production could increase, now with oil tankers down to 3 every two weeks unless you’re tipped off, and with BKP now cancelled that won’t happen any more, you’ll be lucky to see one.
As for twitter you even managed to get an account banned on that platform, here you were permanently banned after several temporary bans for being abusive on this and the Angus board. You're now repeatedly banned because you aren't allowed on this board and you insist on posting incessantly - mostly trying to discredit posters that post accurately and justify their opinions about the risks of UKOG projects, and sometimes because you're still abusive to other posters.
Ninetails, as I pointed out earlier the posts by rampers (including Adrian) that the results would be fantastic to encourage others to buy shares, then selling (or claiming to) before the outcome is RNS'd, show that they don't believe what they post,
No doubt Adrian will return to ramp on the next news, and sell (or claim to have sold) if there's a P&D.
Adrian,
First of all will PPP farm-in, you sound dubious.
Even if DL is keen PPP need to get Alba to agree - maybe the terms aren't to their liking rather than DL's involvement. Do they want less of their equity contributing to the 49% as it seems the deal was dreamt up by UKOG so UKOG should lose disproportionately more HH equity, or is the 7% too generous (@ £50,000 per percent) just for some seismic. UKOG were paying about £300,000 per HH percent prior to mid 2019 - Tellurian's 35% cost £12mm, £342,000 per percent.
Then PPP have to fund the seismic 100% - though UKOG as operator will be in charge. The need for seismic indicates uncertainty about where, or if, there is an updip location for HH-3 - it could be like the post Basur-3 seismic that resulted in not drilling the Basur structure at all. Shooting then processing and interpreting the seismic guarantees even if PPP farm in soon the drill will be some time down the road and looking at the latest map it's practically guaranteed the seismic won't confirm that optimistic mapping. Even if PPP go ahead to drill it won't be in H1 2024 and they need to fund £4.25mm of the cost 100% - will the US operations generate the funds to pay and the result may be the well intersecting a water conduit like HH-2z or one nearby like HH-1.
Despite the initial rates RNS'd for CT #1H in November there's been silence since, including about the water cut and no update about the CT #4H workover, is ominous.
Ocelot,
when will you realise that UKOG keep stringing you and others along (I suspect that the rampers tou don't filter who appear for P&Ds and you probably 'recommend' aren't fooled though - selling or lying about selling before results drop) - and the more you repeat UKOG'S propaganda the more ridiculous it is to keep repeating it and then finding out how wrong it is.
UKOG have used the Supreme Court challenge as an excuse for doing nothing at Horse Hill only recently to justify (unsurprisingly) doing nothing at BB (there's a theme here), yet they have progressed everything for the HH-2z conversion, except the conversion - UKOG claim it would save £250,000 a year, surely an easy win - but now do they have the cash to do it, and despite your confidence there are risks that it could make matters worse.
But the judgement isn't listed on the Supreme Court's website for next week.
Whether or not Alba can agree the PPP farmin it would be interesting as to how PPP's workovers are going, unless of course they intend to fund the farm in, initially £350,000 for the 3D, with placings - the radio silence since early December about the CT wells is surely nothing to worry about - it never has been with UKOG - except every time it happens?
Not sure that the Resan licence looks promising, many dry (two now courtesy of UKOG), and a non-commercial 'discovery'. Still spouting BS about the deeper accumulation that they don't know where it is (or even if there is one) - and while operating costs may be cheaper failure still means wasted cash - and there's a suspicion that UKOG are carrying AME's Pinarova well costs. How much has the 'cheap' Tukish venture cost, probably more than drilling Loxley (definitely if you add in the Portland Port gas storage costs so far) but Loxley is risky, not properly addressed in the CPR which has definitely one error, and probably two, in the assessment of the GWC in Alfold - a major part of the decision to close the structure to the east between two seismic lines and supporting the location of the drill site. The Loxley well cost without a farminee would be prohibitive for UKOG, without a massive rise in SP - the new authority, which may be mostly swallowed up by the CLN holders continuing to convert anyway, would at the current SP level only gross less than £2mm. Proceeding to prepare the Loxley site without a farminee at least paying their way would be madness.
Is the next activity such as a drill rather than a plan, or news, about something far in the future - or maybe not happen at all.
Whilst HH-2z conversion could happen soon does UKOG have the cash, and that's just a saving of £250,000 a year assuming it works, otherwise Loxley won't happen unless there's a farm in - and UKOG preparing the site without a farm out is ridiculous, HH drilling needs PPP to be successful - and they've gone radio silent on their worked over wells, and apparently the Supreme Court judgement being in their favour - though not listed for next week.
No doubt there will be chancers piling in but are they really going to hang around for activity with little chance of happening before H2 22024 at the earliest, and quite possibly never - or for the long term Portland gas storage project with no cash flow possibly this decade?
As for Turkey the RNS is full of BS and is vague - something to hide?
Was this test truly justified? - seemed a few here predicted and explained why failure was likely from before the first perforating from the fact the targets were shallow, the Germik only had a smell whilst drilling, the oil in the bottle could have come from anywhere being displaced while inserting the casing and there was no previous well identifying any of Pinarova's shallow targets as reservoirs?
No details - how tight was the Germik, what's the evidence for it being on the down dip edge of a Kezer structure - a well that only flowed 'heavily' (but never quantified) oil cut water. UKOG has never presented a structure map at any level for Pinarova, just an amorphous outline of the amplitude anomaly.
Claiming that any oil found likely indicates it's a spill or leak from a deeper accumulation needs justifying - why? In fact there was no mention at all whether water or oil was recovered during the testing, and acidising suggests the formation was tight.
Investors were sold a pig in a poke - and certain posters were happy to promote it - often the same ones who appear when a P&D was in tthe offing making wild claims and rubbishing posters giving realistic opinions.
and finally what of the claim by AME that UKOG was carrying their costs?
Triumph of misinformation about the Kimmeridge and as so often seen no explanation of risk from the company - and of course clever buying then selling by SCDM and a helping hand by UKOG installing what they called a 'production' completion - suggesting the indications were so good the testing was a formality - they had to remove the production completion soon after as it failed to produce.
Of course despite the failure BB was declared a success as it apparently rediscovered the Kimmeridge was extant across the Weald, only previously realised from tens if not hundreds of previous wells and savvy geologists.
Unfortunately it appears that until UKOG has tried every avenue in a testing sequence they can stay silent - only successful intermediate tests need to be RNS'd immediately.
No doubt Pinarova will not be declared a failure, even zero flow will be an encouragement to continue the search for 'Eldorado' which of course didn't exist.