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You posted:-
'Lets see what the judges say! Not what is said on here.'
I haven't seen anyone posting anything other than they expect SCC to win and Finch to lose......so not sure what is said here about the case other than it's without merit. But if everyone expects UKOG to win and thinks HH is rubbish then if there is a pump may be minimal, not a doubling, and sold into mercilessly by the CLN holders until the traders give up and the SP drops.
Certainly risky buying before a meeting where a serial issuer of billions of shares will be given authority to issue nearly 50% more shares - probably not because the shareholders want it but because the UKOG board instructed the EBT to buy 3 billion shares from UKOG with money UKOG leant them so they could buy them from UKOG (at a premium to the market price) so they could vote in favour of the GM resolutions.
Then there's the 75,000,000 share sales. 200,000,000 today, not huge in cash terms, but regular and sometimes below the bid, that may mean the CLN holders are in the market driving the SP down once more - though UKOG supposedly has no authority to hand out shares (maybe the EBT is lending them?) - if not them someone is.
Will UKOG's first action after the GM be announcing that a load of shares have been issued because of a conversion?
Oh - and happy birthday - maybe UKOG will give you a positive present for a change for a change.
Ocelot,
Not sure what UKOG classes as losses. My calculation would be everything raised, value of shares given instead of cash for equity (pi stump up instead of placees or CLN holders), any income vs what UKOG have now in tangible assets or cash.
Not su
But even having spent £90mm for £30mm of intangible assets and about £4mm of oil & Gas properties and plant etc is not a good return.
Why £90mm - because the intangible assets value (ca £30mm) is based on cash spent on projects that still, in the opinion of the BoD, are ongoing and either a project is successful and the value becomes tangible, or it's dead and ends up in in losses - and I've added that to Ocelot's losses of £60mm.
So for £90mm they've drilled two cheap wells (Basur -3 and Pinarova) and 3 expensive wells (HH-1, HH-2/ 2z and BB-1/1z), and 2 phases of seismic in Turkey.
Ocelot,
Oil companies live and die by their booked reserves of which UKOG have 100,000bbls from Horndean and 3,000bbls from Avington (March 2023 - 2022 annual report), which they don't operate, but that operator regularly CPR's all their assets, because they are prepared to have them audited by external technical experts, and the results are published.
UKOG has a CPR for their assets including HH dating from mid 2018 with no operated reserves, they also have a CPR for Loxley which also has no reserves.
The net assets you describe are mostly 'intangible' - essentially what they've spent not converting the remaining 'assets' contingent undrilled resources into reserves.
Oil and gas properties total £1.762mm (of which HH comprises a technically unaudited and unpublished £0.8mm) – I make that 0.0054p per share. In addition to that they will have some cash which they have taken already got but not issued shares for (£0.66mm to £1.66mm) and there is property plant and equipment of £1.563mm.
As for accumulated losses judging by previous write offs the only thing preventing £32mm of the cash raised being counted as losses is the time waiting for it to be moved from intangible assets (cash spent) to losses. I also suspect that shares given in exchange for equity in licences for millions in cash that may not be registered as cash spent.
Adrian,
First of all DL approaching land owners in the HHDL operated licence might not be advisable, it’s usually done by the field crew and until they have been contracted they won’t finalise details of where geophones need to be laid and where the vibroseis lines need to be placed which will depend on equipment available and parameters decided on which landowners need to approached and what roads they will use won’t be fully understood.
I've always said Finch will lose sot are you going on about. But the SP doubling when there's going to be billions of CLN shares waiting to be sold into any rise is unlikely - and it won't be next week according to the Supreme Court web site, and what price will the loan notes be converted at – it wouldn’t surprise me if new shares are miraculously converted at the equivalent of the vwap last week - if the SP doesn’t crater next week.
And do stop making up things about what I’m supposed to be / think, you don’t even remember the BS you post.
You posted:- ‘UKOG eventually got planning permission from Surrey County Council after the swampies put up trumped up allegations that Horsehill had caused earth quakes in Surrey in the past loool’
Then you posted:- And swampies objecting to planning by scaremongering at the SCC planning meeting in SEPTEMBER 2019 about EarthQuakes. FACT Penguins. Unlike your fiction.'
So now it was at the planning meeting when it got passed – that sort of eventually – later that day?
PS why don't you stick to X where you're left alone to lie into the void.
I did,
and the answer is unlike you she believes (or like you says she believed) the BS UKOG used to RNS about the amount of oil they were going to produce from HH
What was it, over 3,500 bopd from 6 horizontal well - and some posters here thought they were being conservative and they would immediately submit a revised upward planning application.
We know how well the horizontal bit went in the Portland, and as far as the Kimmeridge is concerned they didn't dual complete HH-1, deepen HH-2 to get more information or sidetrack HH-1 despite planning to do so before they got a report by RPS in June 2019 they've only ever mentioned as a note to the contingent resources table - ànd then 21 months later - maybe that had something to do with the inaction.
....and farming out 49% of all future wells doesn't show much faith in the outcome of more drilling, preferring to spend any cash raised on obviously rubbish wells in Turkey and the Portland Port money pit.
Just looking at the production from HH-1 illustrates that in all likelihood the economics of drilling another well don't stack up. Halving production from a pretty low level of a claimed over 3O0 bopd in a few months and declining from there rapidly probably means a risked NPV for a new well is negative, let alone making a decent return on the money spent - a far more likely real reason for not drilling and handing the risk to someone else of a supposed appraisal / production well.
Finch as you yourself have suggested in tweets is a useful idiot, allowing SS to draw an unwarranted salary whilst doing nothing at hH and chasing rainbows and unicorns in Turkey that should not have been embarked on with proper due diligence - the risks of failure in Turkey were far greater than any risk of Finch winning and the same appears to be true for HH, BB and Loxley.
But 'deramping'. Perhaps you should consider why the SP is so low. Explain exactly what in the past has been as successful as UKOG has claimed it would be. Suggesting, and explaining why, the plans and claims are pie in the sky isn't deramping when they fail - it's being realistic.
If you really believed the claims by UKOG perhaps you can explain your boasts about selling on P&Ds and not holding for results?
Hi Adrian,
Still peddling the revenue of £100,000 a month, forgetting they are having to dispose of lots of water which doesn't come cheap plus all other OPEX at HH. Maybe 25% left - maybe SS salary.
So how much spent on the Turkey fiasco, how much spent on all those consultants for Portland - all the other salaries, Raised £2mm last June, maybe 2 x £500,000 in November and February, and the £750,000 in January which seems to be destined to the Portland project in the hope of getting some sort of government help, maybe awarded next year.
and of course if they did take the 2 x £500,000 then they still owe £1.66 in loan notes which at the current SP means there's still not enough authorisation for share issue
Cash generation.....Turkey?
The only positive about Turkey is it is meant to be cheap to drill dry wells. As for HH - having paid £12mm for 35%, plus about £3mm for 10% equity through HHDL (at £300,000 per percent), they want to farm nearly 43% equity out in the proposed farm in for a £2.3mm uplift to PPP. HHDL may remain operator but PPP, if the farm in is fully executed, will have the greatest equity - doesn't show a great deal of faith in further drilling.
But 'short term' in Turkey they probably need to shoot more seismic to find the mythical deeper accumulation and at HH there's 3D to acquire first.
Ocelot,
'The GM resolutions will enable UKOG to raise more funds from the market'
First of all UKOG has either £0,66mm, £1.16mm or £1.66mm of outstanding loan notes that could be converted - and yes it's ridiculous that UKOG has declined to mention whether the two additional 'committed' tranches of £500,000 have been raken, and even though they were described as committed in the world of UKOG they may or may not have taken them.
But at the current level of SP £0.66mm is about 60% of the new authority to issue shares, £1.16mm is about 106% of the new authority, and £1.66mm is about 150% of the new authority.
So whether the GM authority to issue about 45% more shares will enable more cash to be raised, or just service the debt taken on and therefore cash already taken and quite possibly spent, isn't known.
Not exactly transparent - but that's not unusual unfortunately for UKOG.
But does ocelot really believe the Supreme Court judgement will do anything other than (hopefully) facilitate a P&D. It certainly won't solve the problems with the reservoirs at HH or magically help PPP who have gone radio silent about their workovers in the US with a SP half what it was when the farm in to HH was announced
As regards December production it was slightly up at 45bopd and water cut down at 43%.
When has UKOG positive news actually been positive news?
Every piece of positive news, even the Gatwick gusher tests, has proved to not turn out as positive as hoped, or positive at all. Yes there have been pump & dumps based on that, and other short term results, but most often just based on a plan to do something with decidedly dodgy partial and overly positive information about what was expected.
The hope now is something being announced before the GM - but whatever it is it won't alter the inherent technical risks of drilling another well at HH, nor the well at Loxley, or another well in Turkey, and the timetable for doing any of these will be late 2024 at best (if ever) with more seismic expected at both HH and Turkey and Loxley still needing planning conditions passed. However the Supreme Court decision isn't scheduled for next Wednesday, for HH PPP have gone radio silent about their workovers, Loxley High Court decision was in UKOG's favour in early January, and given it's been available for 18 months no takers so far - of course alternatively it could be more tweets about providing Southern UKs storage needs in.....in....in..... 2050.
But with a rise based on a small value of shares inbalance (with Mr 75 million not joining in the selling at the end of the day, and I nearly put volume but with a per share value in thousandths of a penny there's plenty of volume) - the opposite could be true when the traders lose their nerve and start selling - because it won't be 'investors' buying for even the medium term - with a short term expected to be filled with massive amounts of CLN shares being shifted.
Posed this question:-
'How will the share respond IF tomorrow at 11am the Supreme court judgement is scheduled for next Wednesday?'
I suppose it depends whether like some you believe that the reason UKOG has done nothing except for workovers of HH-1 for 4 years is because of the legal challenge or that the extensive testing, result of HH-2/z and the decline in production of HH-1 has indicated that the risk of drilling a Portland dud is high - and not getting a CPR done, something that enables 'booking' reserves but has to be published, continues with the secrecy about what is happening in terms of the Portland reservoir at Horse Hill. Also companies usually farm out their riskier projects, not appraisal or development wells
Certainly after they commissioned a Kimmeridge report in June 2019 they failed to deepen HH-2 through the Kimmeridge for more data, they didn't dual complete or sidetrack HH-1 for the Kimmeridge.
Even if you do think the delay was due to the legal challenges there will be a long wait until anything happens except more workovers to supposedly help production - none of the previous ones have helped except to the extent the reservoir was shut in for a few weeks and initially production improved.
Wizard,
You believe what you want to believe but if UKOG thought that another well at HH was worth drilling they would have done it. As for a CPR I suspect the reason for not getting one done is to hide the problems - normally a company gets a CPR done to provide reserves to boost the company valuation. Instead UKOG have settled for an internal valuation for HH-1 of £0.8mm based on an unrevealed decline curve and quote the resources determined n the mid 2018 CPR produced before the 2018 onwards extended well test, and before the revised mapping resulting from the HH-2z well depths, which also repositioned the bounding fault so Collendean Farm -1 was no longer in a separate fault block. The same applies to the Kimmeridge where they had a report done in June 2019 - but not a CPR which has to be made fully public - it didn't have billions of barrels of resources.
Since 2018/2019 they've tried Turkey, tried HH-2z and seen HH-1 decline massively - their growth 'strategy' has failed, they have little positive cash flow from HH-1 and huge outgoings. They have failed so far to farm out Loxley and are losing 49% of equity in future HH wells (if PPP actually farm in) when they could have drilled at least one with the cash they wasted in Turkey and they could be profiting from them if they were as successfully as some expect (not me).
You've swallowed the BS for years and appear to still believe the Kimmeridge is a viable reservoir - maybe there will be pump and dumps but a long term recovery of the mcap looks very unlikely.
Ocelot,
the EBT overpaid by at least £60,000 in the first place because UKOG couldn't issue shares for less than 0.01p.
I wonder if they could swap them for 300,000 shares they can issue at 0.0000001p (think that's the right number of noughts) which will reduce the cost to £30 from £300,000 - certainly illustrates how far down they can take the SP following the GM.
One problem UKOG now have is that when the consolidation and lowering of the nominal value was announced the authority for additional shares was about sufficient to service the loan notes that were still outstanding.
Whilst UKOG haven't mentioned whether they have taken the two extra tranches of £500,000 each assuming they have loan notes totaling about £1.66mm awaiting conversion - though it is suspicious that shares are being supplied at the end of the day to cover buys by someone .
Assuming the consolidation, nominal value change and the authority to issue £1,476.75 of extra shares (at the new nominal value) are approved by the trustees (for it's those votes that will decide) then they have authority to issue 1,476,750,000 'new' shares. But the number required to cover the CLN at even a 0.07p vwap (post consolidation SP) is about 2,371,000,000 or about 70% more shares (of nearly 3.3billion) and of course the 1.47675 billion is now only about 45% extra shares - a silver lining in the gloom!.
Indeed ocelot,
That they seem to have found a way to issue more shares than they had authorisation for is testament to how far the BoD is prepared to go to thwart the instruction they received from their shareholders.
and the cash they received issuing the shares they gave the EBT so no extra cash in the whacky world of UKOG, just more shares - not even sure how the EBT can repay the debt, it depends on the arrangement for awarding the shares to employees I guess.
Instead they could have set out a way forward that didn't involve spending most of the cash raised by an O&G E&P company being channelled into the gas storage subsidiary. Perhaps prove that's commercial by getting someone else to pay up - and perhaps try and farm out equity in the Turkey venture as well as Loxley and HH for the same reason. The HH farmout currently in limbo due to 3 things it seems, HHDL partner/s don't agree, PPP seems to have no cash and the most popular excuse for not doing anything at HH - the Supreme Court decision that's supposedly prevented UKOG drilling fantastically profitable wells for 4 years - when the wells they did drill either failed or declined rapidly in production.
Down but not out.
In normal circumstances consolidation shouldn't have a dulutive effect, but the only reason UKOG is doing this is to enable it to issue more shares that, according to the rules, they currently cannot.
Even worse the shares they need to issue are for cash they have at least partially, if not completely spent/wasted so they ought to be dilutive. Even worse, it is in the interests of those they are issuing shares to to drive the SP down because they appear to be able to 'elect' a vwap that's favourable to them after the event.
Can anybody (apart from the biggest fanboy) trust a company that appears to have resorted to selling shares above market value to an EBT to ensure the voting at the follow up GM goes their way rather than changing their resolutions that those voted against.
According to some those that voted against to bring the company down don't own any shares.
Adrian,
I'll leave you with this.
like you I buy low and sell on spikes - and like you I don't always get it right but starting with 2017 I've done OK. I say I do this and unlike you don't resort to mindless ramping, in fact not only is my opinion of every project so far that the outcome will be poor or failure but I also post it here explaining why - but apparently you've hacked into my trading accounts so you know otherwise.
Oh no, I forgot only I have access to it, and you haven't hacked it (because you're wrong) it's Just more of your made up BS because every time you post your made up BS it gets found out.
As indeed is this:- 'Youve never owned shares here . Just a small time sad deramper :)'
Of course it isn't deramping if it's true - but all you ramping ends up being proved wrong. Only when you think you're deramping to get the price down for one of your princely buys are you close to the truth - though you probably don't understand why.
Adrian,
you're not a real investor, you're a small time trader/chancer.
Perhaps you should be 'severely pxssed' off with SS and UKOG who keep pulling the wool over your eyes.
Oh you have been:-
'But i am very excited He's back. Left to SS nothing would happen :)'
'My prediction SS will lose Broadford Bridge because of his arrogance lazyness and greed.'
and that was Feb 8 - and you post earlier 'UKOG should get PP extention granted imo'
ahhh - of course imo!!! Proves everything.
and someone who just makes stuff up says someone else makes themselves look silly.
'You only make yourself look silly suggesting SS should drill expensive oil wells while legal challenges were on going in the High Court,'
Well based on what little UKOG has published - my opinion would be the same as SS and not drill because a risked NPV would probably be negative. The point I'm making is if the wells were as good as you seem to think with low technical risk they should drill them as the risk of Finch winning is so low.
But you can't even remember what you thought about the BB planning outcome earlier this month.
Adrian,
you posted:-
'Cyan i am correct . Ive done my research over the years unlike you.
If you read my posts you will know no drilling can be carried out while legal proceedings against planing are in progress for now over 4 years.'
As usual complete made up BS - 'imo' at the end of a tweet or post is not a proof.
UKOG has RNS'd on several occasions that the planning permission is in full force. It's UKOG that has chosen to not drill.
15/8/2022:- 'Planning consent currently remains in full force and lawful oil production at Horse Hill will continue until further notice.'
......and that was following Finch's leave to appeal.
The fact they are continuing with production proves that the 2019 planning permission remains in full force:-
Description of the proposal:- 'enabling the production of hydrocarbons from six wells, for a period of 25 years.'
The previous planning permission only allowed the test production and was only for 3 years:-
'for a temporary period of three years,'
Horse Hill is not like any other well - it's like a well in a fractured reservoir with rapid pressure drop, with the added problem of water producing fractures.
UKOG claimed HH-1 production started in late March at over 300 bopd, by July the fourth month of production the average was 122bopd and 27% water. Now they're struggling to balance water and oil production, with November 2023 production of 44 bopd with 39bwpd, a water cut of 47%.
Whether there would be an economic case, with a good RRR on investment, to drilla well producing like HH-1, taking into account the risks, is questionable - but I doubt that would be a consideration for a cowboy outfit just wanting to prop up the SP.
Just because wells in Texas (where costs are considerably lower, plenty of rigs and other kit and less HSE and environmental regulation) are worse does not suggest HH has a normal decline, 60% in the first four months is terrible, ot what you would expect from a clastic reservoir.
BTW how are those PPP workovers going, radio silence about them since early December doesn't look good following promiises of various updates.
Adrian,
If you believe that any future testing or drilling at either Loxley or Horse Hill has any information to offer over the full core, extensive logging suite and months of 'testing' of the Kimmeridge at Broadford Bridge which is about 17 kms from Loxley and considerably further, and the other side of the Weald Basin from HH, you've fallen for yet another of UKOG's deceptions. I wonder if WSCC planning committee will?
Wouldn't say it's nailed on to get another 2 years extension having asked for 2 or 3 extensions supposedly to do something already, but if they do it's just delaying the inevitable abandonment of the well and restoration of the site. The locals, rather than some bloke who lives nearish to HH supporting the extension and I'm sure it's just coincidence occasionally has shares in UKOG (and becomes the biggest cheerleader for a while), are concerned that UKOG won't have the cash to restore the site - and they're right to be concerned following the recent shenanigans.
and no I have nothing to do with TW, though knowing your twitter history you flip flop between strongly criticising UKOG, and being nasty about SS, and then when you've bought some shares posting and tweeting how great everything is going to be.
Anyway good luck with the £5,000 - let's hope there's not just a week of desperate tweets about Portland port / anything hydrogen to try and stop the slide.
Maybe if they announce they're doing some work on HH to try and stop the decline / water cut increasing and ther's a mini spike you'll be boasting you've sold and not held for the supposed golden future.
Adrian,
Bullying - 5 posts in a row? Of course you'd know all about bullying having even managed to get your beloved freeasabird twitter account suspended as well as being banned here.
BTW it was thousands of bopd, I'll explain, that's barrels of oil per day, not barrels of oil over 6 years including testing.
As for a slant well, it will make very little difference producing from the restricted 'lions share' layer but will increase the chance of hitting a water conduits, as for a horizontal only a fool would try that again.
You can repeat your ramping nonsense until you've filled up a page but it doesn't make it right. UKOG used to serially fool you. But then you won't be hanging around this time with your £5,000 of shares for results just a rise on news and you'll be out, all the BS about how great HH or anything else will be will be for the mugs to wait and watch fail, which will be a long wait as there won't be any drilling at HH or Loxley until much later this year at the earliest, if at all. So you're just relying on what UKOG does best, news about a plan to do something, rather than results.
No need for DL to attempt a takeover of the whole company - who would want the clean up of BB or the money pits of Turkey or Portland port, just buy UKOG's shares in HHDL and or the subsidiary that has the ex Tellurian 35% - UKOG (137/246) Ltd. Maybe even get them to pay the NPV of HH-1 £0.8mm, though that wouldn't leave room for profit.
Adrian,
And UKOG is giving up 49% of HH because it's so great?
If it was really good they wouldn't have panicked into spending $5mm on Turkey when HH-1 water production was going to be seen in the OGA figures - and then, when Turkey started to fail, everything else on the Portland gas storage project.
It seems even you (as you've bought in) think there's no chance of the Supreme Court agreeing with Finch but in the meantime UKOG has deliberately, in your opinion, not drilled slam dunk wells that could have helped stopping the SP going from around 0.2p in July 2020 to 0.0075p today, a 96% drop.
Anyone that believed your nonsense over the years would wonder what happened to the thousands of bopd that was going to be produced by HH, or even the 108bopd you claimed over the winter of 21/22.
'The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
Jan 15, 2022
#UKOG OK Let's see who is full of sh*te.
I'm calling Ibug out on @LondonSouthEast. Let's see who's nearest. 🤠
December /January. #Horsehill production is 108 bopd.
Ibug and 🐧 says HH is down to 49 bopd and declining. Bullsh*t!'
And I certainly didn't post UKOG was down to 49bopd (though I almost certainly posted it was declining)- though 49 bopd was much closer to the actual than 108bopd.
Next You'll be quoting the revenue from the current production as if the OPEX isn't huge, nor that UKOG's outgoings mean the company loses millions a year.