Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Jojohummer,
perhaps you'd like to identify which buy yesterday was yours?
To make money you do actually have to buy some shares, not imagine it.
Seem to remember someone boasting of a buy at 0.0329p - was that you? as this account was started today and it's after 5 o'clock when admin go home?
Ocelot,
Strange that you would expect anything other than some enthusiasm from AME and UKOG for a well going to be drilled by them.
However this from the AME 2022 annual report doesn't sound that excited:-
'The only exception will be testing the Resan shallow accumulation. Not only will these wells be quick and cheap the costs are carried by our JV partners and if successful would be a first in the region.'
and the target concept has already proved a dud:-
'Additionally, after identifying near surface amplitude anomalies associated with positive indicators from post-stack seismic attributes on one of the legacy 2D seismic lines running across both the shot hole and the geothermal well, shallow amplitude play concept has been developed.'
........and anomalies on post stack data are not hydrocarbon indicators - as Pinarova has proved
Even before drilling there was no guidance as to what 'success' might mean, and despite having drilled through the Germik a positive test (whatever in UKOG / AME's opinion that might be) will:-
'With this in mind, should further testing be positive, consideration is being given to the acquisition of a small 3D seismic programme to identify a possible deeper oil pool'
But it's interesting that they seem to have forgotten that they also sent a sample of E Sadak oil to be tested. Would thatbeing similar discredit the whole concept of association with the shothole oil?
'A sample of the oil recovered from Pinarova (as detailed above) along with samples of the 41.7˚ API oil recovered from the active seismic shot-hole seep (see RNS of 11th January 2023 and 30th June 2022) and 43˚ API oil from the nearby East Sadak field, have now also been dispatched to the UK for detailed geochemical study'
Ocelot,
'Great news!'
Be careful what you wish for - Turkey and Christmas - who'd a'thought it in May.
This from 2019, when ocelot was counting those Turkeys - but UKOG was about to smash the eggs on 23 December with 'news' of the HH-2z flows - and the routine intervention planned to shut-off the water source, unfortunately perhap predictably there was more than one. Still it kept the rampers happy for a while - routine they kept quoting.
'ocelot
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 22,882
Price: 0.925 No Opinion
RE: Sell at 40p+ 18 Dec 2019 20:47
Think it's more a question of cash flow than of P/E ratios, certainly for the present.
Healthy cash flow from the Portland horizontal should free UKOG from exclusive reliance upon placings and open up the path to alternative sources of finance, at which point the market can seriously begin to integrate the development of some of UKOG's other projects and re-rate the share price.'
Well the SP has de-rated though (if there is such a thing - it's currently about a 40th of the SP on 18 December 2019 - 4 years ago. The closing SP has never been above that price since then.........despite the ongoing wait for the initial test results from HH-2z, or perhaps because of?)
Of course I accept your apology - though if you had been right I didn't need to apologise this morning.
One last thing:-
'Retention and extension of an existing well site'- erm - that means enlarging the well site, you know the extra bit they were going to build that loading area needed for all those tankers coming to fill up in 2020/2021, nothing to do with:- 'extention penguins.tut tut. intresting though. so maybe ukog will sidetrack hh1 in the future.'
You're making claims based on what you want to happen, not what, from what has happened so far in Turkey,is likely to happen.
So far, after signing up to a supposedly 'potentially' transformational deal with AME who 'consider divestitures and joint ventures where the underlying values are not reflected in our financials', they drilled Basur-3 on a map that massively overestimated the size of the prospect. Then they shot 2 phases of seismic to find a location for Basur-4. Having found some oil in some shotholes they came up with a working hypothesis to essentially link this oil to an amplitude anomaly, that wasn't a DHI (Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator), in the Hoya (ie not Basur-4). This became the Pinarova well located near Kezer-1, a geothermal test that had flowed water with an oil cut in the Hoya, presumably AME and UKOG hoping the least they would get would be the same.
There were oil shows in the Hoya in Pinarova but a swabbed test did not return any oil but that wasn't in the anomaly section anyway. Belatedly UKOG RNS'd after TD was reached that there was an oil odour during drilling the Germik (above the Hoya) and, after drilling it when casing was set, emulsion returned to surface. Already cased the perforating guns used were too small and UKOG interpreted that the guns had not penetreted the casing - so 6 months later those guns are in the country awaiting shipment to the site.
Already UKOG are preparing the ground for failure with talk of a deeper accumulation at Pinarova being where the shothole oil might have come from.
No direct oil shows, just a smell, and a slick of oil from somewhere when the casing was set are not encouraging signs that the Germik will flow - not sure, apart from saving face or lack of understanding how long or how expensive it might be, why they've persevered with securing the bigger guns when could they have drilled slim hole to that depth again then been able to test it either open hole or with smaller casing in weeks and probably cheaper. Couldn't have been just to delay the bad news?
In the meantime YA / Riverfort have been busy making sure they don't lose. Still no RNS about the conversion price of the 1,424,487,652 second tranche equity shares they've been given. Today's vwap is about 0.0216p so just to show how profitable it can be to drag the SP down-
On November 14 there was a 60,000,000 sell at 0.02708p - value about £16,248.
OK small beer, but if they were to convert the shares they've been given at today's vwap the it would reduce the debt by £12,960 - meaning they would profit by £3,288 or about 25% - plus 4.5% added to the loan, and some warrants, price based on a different fomula.
Of course today's sale at 0.205 would have lost about £665, reducing the profit to about 20% +4.5% - and it'll be even easier for them to profit if the SP rises in the next 15 days with a guaranteed 'buy' price of 0.0216.
Didn't check before posting this post last night. Whilst the planning permission for HH-1 sidetrack and HH-2z isn't being challenged that permission only permitted the testing of the wells for 3 years. The ability to produce from the site is covered by the planning permission being challenged in the Supreme Court so I was wrong to post 'so your claims about not being able to continue using HH-2z and closing the site down if SCC /UKOG lose that case is BS.' - So apologies.
However the risk of the challenge succeeding is infinitesimally small so closing the site isn't going to happen and I still think the lack of activity because of the challenge to the planning permission is apologists BS.
I know Adrian never apologises for posting wrong and often nasty posts or tweets but accuracy and truth is important. It will remind me to check facts whatever time of night it is.
I hope you're right, didn't Angus get into trouble with the planners over what they were using a well for.
Pointless posting stuff about other permissions, I specified whether planning permission was valid to use the well as an injector - but if what you say is true UKOG therefore have undisputed planning permission to convert the well. The Finch case is about the planning permission for the extra wells and to do with the planning guidelines extant when it was being considered, so your claims about not being able to continue using HH-2z and closing the site down if SCC /UKOG lose that case is BS.
Thanks for posting that the well has all permissions and it's a permission not being challenged.
Just realised you do have an idea what a reasonable timescale of decline is:-
'The flow rates didnt drop off that quick. They dropped off over a few years. Thats natrual decline'
Natural decline - over years. Not down 66% in about 6 months.
Let's see where CT #1 production is in 6 months time, November average 161bopd.
'Ive had enough talking to shorts and swampies for one night.'
Maybe I've got it wrong and it's an Adrian parody account........best joke yet.
But surely you mean you've had enough of your posts being shown to be ridiculous - still you can go on twitter and lie about bashing other posters.........
You have no idea what a reasonable rate of decline is - and HH-1's decline was dire, and should be a warning to anyone believing initial rates will be reflected in production. Here's the first 7 months of production daily averages up to the workover in October:-
March - UKOG claimed more than300bopd
April 243.2
May 176.7
June 157.9
July 121.7
August 128.4
September 93.3
So down over 66% in about 6 months - yet you posted:- 'The flow rates didnt drop off that quick. They dropped off over a few years. Thats natrual decline' - you said it, years not months.
As for a win in the Supreme Court does anybody think UKOG (well SCC) will lose? I've not seen a single post even saying they might.
But I doubt Pinarova will be a commercial success - though UKOG might claim recovering a bit of oil is a 'success' (it wouldn't be).
MacDonalds didn't already have a restaurant selling burgers there did they, whereas UKOG has a well site and valid, not disputed, planning permission for a sidetrack off HH-1, and HH-2z. No need to do anything but request a change of use of HH-2z to an injector - which maybe they need to do anyway, and if not why haven't they done it?
Just you, just you.
looooooool imo
Have you considered that you are wrong? Have you not noticed how often what UKOG claim doesn't happen and what those you tell stories about get it right?
You now seem to have taken on the role that wizard had of being an apologist for UKOG - nothing happening because of the legal challenges - but it makes no sense delaying water injection which would be a pretty quick 'win' - and no takers soon after the Loxley farm out after the high court decision in UKOG's favour.
That those oil experts you make claims about are in fact experts in their field not greens or nimbys. That the analysis that's posted here that's different to what UKOG tweet and RNS is accurate - and what UKOG RNS that you repeat is biased - because it's their choice of which interpretation they're going to tell pi.
Nevertheless there's enough other information out there, and understanding that and analysing the factual information that UKOG do RNS leads to the conclusions posted here.
Yep horizontal wells in a lot of situations work well but HH-2z is a good example of what can happen when you drill horizontally in a fractured field where those fractures carry water. So will they risk a horizontal well in the Portland near to the bounding fault, and as for the Kimmeridge perhaps you'd like to consider that RPS calculated only 1.6mmbbls 2C resources in the Kimmeridge and why UKOG chose to keep quiet about it for 21 months and have never commented on it or given any details.
The Kimmeridge may be huge but very little oil wants to come out of a source rock quickly, geologic time, not production time. It's what's in the fractures that might come out - Niel Ritson said it years ago at the 2018 Investor show (before the Kimmeridge ewt):-
'Now these are fractured reservoirs and they will have been offloading the oil from the fractures. What we are going back in this year to establish is if you leave them open for a period of time what is the sustainable rate, which you would expect to be down in the 100 to 200 barrels per day range if it's going to be commercial'.
Funny thing is you say 'HHDL wanting to drill and produce' when that's precisely, even (according to you) after the challenge is defeated in the Supreme Court, what they are not going to do - seems you need a suspension of belief to think that HHDL decided that it wasn't worth drilling a Kimmeridge sidetrack, dual completing HH-1 and didn't bother to drill and log the Kimmeridge, because it was going to 'gush'.
Perhaps the report from RPS in June 2019 had something to do with not doing anything more with the Kimmeridge UKOG have only ever referenced this report in the table of Contingent Resources (as a footnote) since 2021, 21 months later - and those 2C resources (not even reserves) are not billions, not hundreds of millions, not tens of millions but 1.6mmbbls - and that might be from multiple wells.
Kimmeridge huge - not really - as for no raise here - there's another £500,000 of CLN coming in February - and there's agreement for another £2mm if UKOG want it. By then they'll have to have consolidated as the nominal value of shares looms - 0.01p.
Adrian,
you do realise that UKOG can shuffle cash to HHDL without an RNS? If you look at the accounts for HHDL there have been payments made 2019 to 2022 of several million but it's a zero sum between them, only reported in the parent and subsidiary company accounts, not the group accounts.
I doubt there was £800,000 just sitting in HHDL's account from profit without UKOG subsidising it - but we will never know as it will be a zero sum as far as UKOG and HHDL are concerned.
Accounts for the year to September 2022 showed:-
Turnover £1503086
Cost of Sales £1260439 (oil 'profit) = £242,647
Administrative Expenses £588762
So as far as cash flow that's minus £346,115
Can't imagine that with inflation that costs will have gone down, oil production to September 2023 slightly down on 2022 and administrative expenses , who knows - but not zero - so where's the £800,000 appeared from - even the £100,000+ looks a stretch from 'profits' it's almost certainly not oil production funding it but UKOG shuffling cash around.-
Let's wait until July when HHDL's accounts for the year to September 2023 are published to see what UKOG mean by 'the continued profitability of the Horse Hill oil field' means - is it just an accounting sleight of hand. The year to September 2021 gross profit on oil sales less cost of sales was £54,386 and admin expenses of £340,688 and the previous year a loss of £1,153,636. Just doesn't look like 'continued profitability' due to oil sales but UKOG subsidies.
The only source of revenue for HHDL is oil and that wasn't enough to show any profit after administrative expenses in any year up to September 2022.
Sun moon,
Really?
Last Friday - shuffling money around the group and paying out Alba and Doriemus £100,000 cash - for what.
Yesterday - they've extended the period of the PPP farm in because PPP need time to save up some dash or mug their 'investors' with a raise
Today - the NSTA yet again extends the obligation work programme to retain the whole of PEDL 137..
If those three things are positive - paying out cash, and extending deadlines I'd hate to see what you consider negative.
Adrian,
Not sure your opinions are too reliable when it comes to court decisions:-
'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
Jun 4
#UKOG Thursday Dunsfold / Loxley appeal in court
If UKOG win the SP will fly !'
Firstly that was a hearing, nobody would win or lose, but when the decision was announced 20 July the SP didn't fly, unless you mean like the Red Bull competition where they 'fly' off a pier, and what happened to the Igas (now called Star Energy) farm in?
'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
Feb 7
#UKOG Am expecting news of a farm out soon at #Loxley. #Igas is the word on the street'
....and no mention it was delayed because of the longing legal challenge.
BP
Of course this and most RNS issued by UKOG are't written to inform - more written to deceive the mug punters and worse enable the rampers :-
'The flow test results are outstanding, demonstrating North Sea-like oil rates from an onshore well,” said UKOG executive chairman Steve Sanderson.'
What's curious is someone posting it now when it has been so thoroughly discredited. UKOG has such faith in the results of the next HH well that instead of raising cash to drill it (or avoid spending money elsewhere) they want to farm out 49% - if they really expected North Sea flow rates they wouldn't be farming it out.
So that brings us to PPP flow rates. A well shut in for 16 months has an improved flow rate from when it was shut in. Anyone who followed UKOG through the HH well test will have seen this on a much smaller scale - with shortish shut ins, usually while another layer was tested, followed by resumption of testing - then an initial rate RNS'd, sometimes half hour, sometimes instantaneous, maybe even a whole day then maybe a volume or an average over a period of time - but rarely (once iirc) a final rate - before the next shut in. Analysis of the numbers almost always suggesting a decline - sometimes rapid.
So now there's been a reasonable month's production PPP need another, then another, etc, and the next well to do the same.
PPP had an opportunity to say something about the current CT #1H flow rates in today's RNS, they didn't - and they've not mention water cut either since the October RNS. It may be nothing, but too often what companies omit in RNS is more important than what's put in.
Only just now got around to reading the Alba RNS, they don't sound too happy:-
'The UKOG announcement, of which the Company was not given prior notice, states that: "?further to its announcement of ................'
Looks like MR S is stepping on Alba's toes - what was the cash to Alba for last week if it wasn't to ease the way to today's RNS.
Did UKOGot mention the quid pro quo was they were about to grant PPP a 6+ month extension having already ignored the end of the previous 6 months allowed to complete the deal from 28 March. Is Alba not happy that everyone will have to drop 49% and expect UKOG to contribute a bigger share.
Now it looks like wait and see if PPP can save up enough cash to pay for the deal. Notice that despite the RNS about the rig arriving on site in the US for the next workover there was no mention of how flow rates of previous workover of CT #1H were going so far in December, and they've still not mentioned the water cut since the very first flows of about 50%.
I was so worried about an oil and gas exploration company not having enough funds for the Portland gas storage project. So it's a relief to know they're still trying to farm out their 'flagship' production whilst still needing cash for Loxley (site prep H2 2023 regardless of the farm out but not done) as there's still no takers for the farm out despite the High Court judgement going their way (see to remember posters claiming the farm in would happen once that was cleared) but do carry on funding, perhaps at 100%, the dead horse flogging in Turkey.
Happy days!
Trish,
'Is all of this a distraction away from the Basur well that once looked so promising?'
Surely not, 2 deceptive non-RNS in a few days, you may say that - I couldn't possibly comment.
Maybe you're learning to spot the UKOG RNS BS methodology,
'It looks as if HHDL's non-controlling interests (principally Alba) have now agreed to the proposed farm-in by PPP'
Did anyone think that the term of the conditional binding term sheet wasn't being extended anyway. The first 6 months was up at the end of September.
But where does it say the minority partners have agreed anything apart from extending validity of the binding terms sheet if this RNS is to be believed 'The farmin remains subject to the completion of the formal farmin agreement and necessary regulatory consents'.
If the minority shareholders in HHDL had signed up to the deal surely UKOG would have mentioned it - though maybe the payments to Alba and Doriemus got them to agree to allow this to happen.
By halving their interest in future production presumably UKOG will have to halve their current 'intangible' assets (that ocelot likes to trot out as if they exist) for HH - so over £5mm down.
With PPP and ocelot repeating the Kimmeridge BS from 2015, and the 2018 HH Portland CPR volumetrics which was before the ewt started and then 45 months of Portland and a radically different map produced after HH-2z was drilled, it shows a level of desperation only matched by ocelots inevitable optimism about the Pinarova test.
Still no:-
'R (on the application of Finch on behalf of the Weald Action Group) (Appellant) v Surrey County Council and others (RespondentsR (on the application of Finch on behalf of the Weald Action Group) (Appellant) v Surrey County Council and others (Respondents)
Monday 11 December 2023
There are no court sittings
Tuesday 12 December 2023
10:30am
Courtroom 1
Secretary of State for Business and Trade (Respondent) v Mercer (Appellant)
Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Hamblen, Lord Burrows, Lord Richards, Lady Simler
Wednesday 13 December 2023
10:30am
Courtroom 1
Secretary of State for Business and Trade (Respondent) v Mercer (Appellant)
Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Hamblen, Lord Burrows, Lord Richards, Lady Simler
Thursday 14 December 2023
There are no court sittings
Friday 15 December 2023
There are no court sittings