Member Info for Penguins

RNS 19 March 2024

'UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) announces that its application to extend the planning consent at its Broadford Bridge (UKOG 100%) site, primarily to assess the viability of converting the site to harness geothermal heat and power was today refused by West Sussex County Council'

Not sure providing low grade warming for agriculture (including tea) is likely to turn UKOG's fortunes - but if you read the testing report (available on the BGS, see link below) you might realise that the RNS that UKOG issued during the testing in 2017 / 2018 were somewhat economical with the truth.

https://webapps.bgs.ac.uk/services/ngdc/accessions/index.html?simpleText=BROADFORD%20BRIDGE%201#

It's in the Broadford Bridge 1z section.

I think hey have 6 months to appeal.

Has anybody read the Government paper, this is an interesting requirement:-

Applicants should provide any of the following documents. A document from both part A and part B must be provided.

Part A (pre-FID):

• Confirmation of the ability to reach FID from existing liquidity sources (equity)

• Letters of support from the board of equity shareholders

Part B (post- FID):

Confirmation of the ability to fund post FID from existing liquidity sources

• Letters of support from debt providers

• Proof of engagement with financiers for support post FID

But there are lots of documentation evidencing the viability of the project and experience of the team required,,and as someone else has pointed out a need for alignment with the transportation round - and whilst UKOG seems to think Portland is near the Solent a quick look at a map shows otherwise.

Although UKOG is throwing all their cash resouces at it the full application guidance for the first HSBM allocation round was meant to be issued in Q2 2024, so the full criteria isn't known - only a day left to do that

Further to its announcement of 28th March 2023, the Company's relevant subsidiaries and 'Pennpetro Energy Plc ("PPP") have agreed to extend the conditional binding Horse Hill farm-in term sheet until 30 June 2024,.......'

Will they, with the usual brass neck, announce yet another extension to the deal, as if it's li,ely to ever happen?

Also end June the interim results are due, plus the accounts for most, if not all the subsidiaries, though they might not appear on Companies House for a while - they should reveal where the intangible non assets come from.

As for the CLN don't forget the 4.5% added to the loan when shares are converted - That's another £90,000 added to the debt. The interims will confirm whether the 2 £500,000 'committed' tranches were taken or most likely, not - though I didn't expect the Supreme Court judgement.

The authority to issue just under 3.9 billion shares after the 'fixed' AGM vote will be much depleted if the SP drops further, a near certainty unless some 'good' news is conjured up to enable the CLN holders to dump into a pump.

So far for £155,000 since the AGM 730,000,000 shares have been issued, with £300,000 to go (principal plus the 4.5%) even at 0.02p - that's 1.5billion more shares, leaving authority to issue less than 1.7 billion shares - or about another £340,000 at 0.02p (funnily about SS's annual salary). The interims will reveal the state of UKOG's finances as of end March 2024 - interesting reading, wonder if they'll leave it until after the weekend, on July 1st, or 4:30 Friday?

any company with decent professionals could tear apart the cpr with a major mistake in interpretation off the poroperm crossplots for alfold-1 and godley bridge-1.

one reason the well is so expensive is probably because the economics depend on the first well being used as the single producer if successful, rather than a cheaper 'finder' well just to the portland. even that is suspect as the original plan was based on 5 producers, the justification for the single well producing 15 to 18mmscf/d was not from rps who had this to say in the cpr:-

'rps is inclined to suggest that the data is too sp**** to make any definitive interpretation and therefore is of limited use in defining likely future well performance. well productivity therefore remains one of the major contingencies.'

a polite way of saying they don't believe the predicted flow rate.

Ibug,

looks like it's also a 'win' for SS handing him an excuse to continue doing nothing at Horse Hill.

It's unlikely the new seismic, if PPP farm in and pay for it, will prove the current mapping correct - just like the Basur-4 mapping the target is a strange 'pimple' where there is no seismic control - the Basur-4 2 phases of seismic ended up with Pinarova being drilled, and B-4 no longer mentioned.

Whilst HH-1 is producing about 44bopd and with 44% water (33bwpd), HH-2z (which incidentally proved the map it was drilled on was wronng) is still waiting to be converted to an injector because oil production was overwhelmed by water production. The question is would the risked NPV of a new well exceed the cost of drilling - the economic test it should need to pass.

Maybe not a duster, but not worth drilliing, but if PPP do somehow conjure up enough cash to drill their outlay for 49% is restricted to £4.6mm for the seismic and well - so probably not at no cost to UKOG.

Horsehill is not a valuable asset - HH-1 is valued by the company at £1.4mm as at end September 2023 - revenue minus cost of sales only in the annual accounts from end September 2018 to end September 2023 totalled £1.7mm, and that includes Horndean production.

Don't know what HH-1 cost to drill but it would have cost more than the £3.1mm 'profit' on oil sales plus the BoD's latest valuation of HH-1. Note that SS was paid more than the £1.7mm profit from all oil production from 2018 to 2023 - £2,000,000 (includes small pension contributions, a £310,000 bonus and £142,000 share based payment)

No one expects the challege to be upheld, UKOG have stated the challenge has no merit though have also claimed they (and PPP) are waiting on the decision before doing anything.

But the only thing that matters is whether UKOG do anything at HH following the decision, not plan to. What that might be when they seem to want to spend their cash on the Portland gas storage project and may have cash problems even for that, and PPP look dead in the water, is questionable

Maybe the 'enthusiasts' can generate a pump - but unless there's some action it will, like all previous ones fizzle out in the wait for action / success.

Don't worry those declaring how important / great the Supreme Court decision is and how it will mean that UKOG will be drilling wells and producing lots of oil at HH will be long gone by the time the SP drops - it was UKOG's decision to go to Turkey when HH-2z and HH-1 were producing water, and when Turkey started looking dodgy found the Portland Port project - the chances that any new wells will be any better may be about the same as PPP finding the cash to acquire 3D let alone drill a well having been silent for 2 months about their US properties - and a SP 25% of what it was when the deal was announced.

I'm not, and nor are most of the electorate.

Not sure yours is a balanced diatribe.

More recently during the last Labour government (13 years) the pound dropped from an average in 1997 of about $1.64 to $1.54 in 2010 (6% drop) - now after 14 years of Conservative government today it's $1.27 (17% drop). Obviously foreign governments don't trust........hold on....

In 1990 I do remember the, albiet brief, interest rates of 15% (Conservatives had been in power since 1979), and I heard about someone called Truss who singlehandedly raised mortgage rates fairly recently - and someone called Sunak who profited from the 2008 banking crisis.

As for shoving 'up the cost of holidays abroad as well as in the shops' - welcome to 2023

Looking at the list of things that according to you Labour will supposedly do wrong - it seems to be exactly what the Conservatives have done during their time in charge not to mention liar Johnson's VIP Lane / wasted billions during covid plus the bodged Brexit, Truss' Budget, and Sunak who has done anything but 'fix the economy, lead with integrity and fulfil the promises of the Conservative Party's 2019 manifesto' that he promised in his first speech as PM - yet you say you will still vote for them.

Guess the CLN holders have made a loss on their sales, probably kicking themselves with the likelihood of a P&D based on the upcoming Supreme Court verdict, though of course they can't be the latest conversion ' Admission is expected to take place at 8.00 a.m. on or around 18 June 2024'.

238,095,238 bought @ 0.021, £50,000

Sold for 0.02,£47,619

Luckily they will be given an extra 4.5% = £2250 so the loss is only £131.

Whilst UKOG say there's only £161,000 left to pay off there's the 4.5% extra that's been added to the pricipal at each conversion which will add £90,000 to the debt - so assuming the 2 x £500,000 additional loans weren't taken (or given)there's still £250,000 of conversions to go., makinthe d

Will UKOG need to raise more cash before this debt is paid off and making the spiral worse?

Hi Adrian......

Insidious,

Where would you be without other posters to moan about - posting rubbish like this I suppose:-

Insidious Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 3,528 Price: 0.012

Hold

RE: New Google Max Share Price History……. 2 Feb 2024 19:20

Nee jerk reaction from the weak, this will be back up next week'

The SP of 0.012p was prior to the consolidation - equivalent to 0.12p now............'

...........or this corker:-

'Insidious Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 3,528 Price: 0.023

Hold

RE: Turkey 14 Dec 2023 15:21

Bubblepoint - Invest now and you can double your money'

The SP, again before consolidation, was 10, yes ten, times the current SP.

Yep, can see the issue with posters that copy and paste - it supports their opinion of other posters when it's not exposing UKOG's deceptions / the reality of the projects.

Assuming they didn't do a 'clerical adjustment they have 'authority up to an

aggregate nominal amount of £3,876.84 (being 100% of the Company’s issued share capital' Ie 3,876,840,000 shares.

If the SP doesn't rise then about 2 billion of that total will be used up by the remainder of the loan including today's loan reduction plus 4.5% (about £400,000) of the £2mm loan taken last June.

This all for cash probably spent already, the end June interim report should reveal what UKOG's financial position was at the end of March.

As for the CLN holder's profit they do occasionally make a killing otherwise they sold the 64,444,444 for 0.0239p and the 140,000,000 for 0.0201p, the conversion was at 0.0225p but they get 4.5% extra added to the loan so an extra £2,475 added.

On the basis of the reported share prices they got £51,582 for the sales so they theoretically made a loss of about £1,000 this time if you include the 4.5% added to the loan.

Whether there's any value in the 80+ million warrants only time will tell.

Apparently 'Admission is expected to take place at 8.00 a.m. on or around 7 June 2024'

So it took a few days but:-

Penguins

Posted in: UKOG Posts: 5,453

Price: 0.0245 No Opinion

When's the CLN RNS? 31 May 2024 18:55

Will it be for 244,444,444 shares, though? 64.444,444 sale on Wednesday plus the 180,000,000 yesterday according to the share trades listing.

30-May-24 15:34:02 0.0201 180,000,000 Unknown* 0.022 0.027 36.18k

So kept silent for over 24 hours - nice profit for the MMs though.

Whilst the last CLN left £370,000 of the principal to clear there's 4.5% of the value of each conversion added to the loan so with £90,000 to add once the £2,000,000 is cleared.'

Now:- 'the principal balance of which now stands today at £0.31 million of the £2 million gross first cash sum received.'

Still need to add 4.5% and the repetition of 'the £2 million gross first cash sum received.' is ambiguous about the 2 supposedly 'committed' tranches of £500,000 - and ignores the 4.5% that needs to be added,to the loan.

Not forgetting, if the SP does rise, the 33% extra warrants with a price tag, in this case, of £0.000315.

Just as in early May they've sold shares before the preceding month ended. Is it to disguise / confuse what the tally is each month as the CLN holders are not permitted to sell more than 20% of the preceding month's total share trades.

'What is negative is that it is payable by a UKOG subsidiary, HHDL'.

Yes - because that if the loan is part paid back to UKOG (or not) it will already be in thegroup balance sheet and if HHDL pay UKOG they have to also pay off the loans to Alba and Doriemus in the same proportion which does affect the group balance sheet.

With a (dodgy?)intangible valuation of HH made by the BoD of £19.3mm with a current plan to take a carry of up to £4.6mm to acquie 3D and drill HH-3 for 49% of HH (except HH-1) means that if the PPP farm out happens the likelihood is that HHDL won't ever pay the loan back let alone any interest with a combined tangible (£1.4mm for HH-1) plus 51% of the intangible valuation of about £11mm.

Which brings me back to 'schrodiger's decline trend/depletion curve which means it exists for the BoD valuation, but there's insufficient information for a CPR to be produced which would provide pi with an honest assessment of the Portland at HH rather than the BoD's opinion - though doubtful they would allow a CPR to assess the Kimmeridge, having already had a RPS report in 2019 they have kept to themselves.

Ibug,

39 bopd average in March is bad enough - but it's coupled with an increase in water cut to 47%.

42bopd in February with a 44% water cut.

44 bopd in January with a 43% water cut

This is a terrible direction of travel, production down, water cut up. UKOG will be producing as much oil as possible relative to the water but they're having to cut oil production back, 10% ifrom January to March.

UKOG tweeted (not in an RNS) in February 'HORSE HILL LATEST: UKOG planning a downhole pump changeout and scale removal programme to enhance oil production from HH-1. Further updates to follow.'

'Enhance' no previous workover has done anything other than stall decline for a while.

Whilst trying to find a reference to this in the Annual Review I noticed this:-

'HH-1 production remains in contingent resource category, as the company requires more data to establish the long-term decline trend of the well' - this being their eternal excuse for not getting a CPR, yet also:-'The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was independently reviewed.' because they desperately want to assign a 'tangible' asset value to HH-1 whilst avoiding having a CPR which has to be published, warts and all, not just what the BoD think HH-1 is worth, which isn't much anyway..

If anybody thinks HH is great consider UKOG's actions not words.

Will it be for 244,444,444 shares, though? 64.444,444 sale on Wednesday plus the 180,000,000 yesterday according to the share trades listing.

30-May-24 15:34:02 0.0201 180,000,000 Unknown* 0.022 0.027 36.18k

So kept silent for over 24 hours - nice profit for the MMs though.

Whilst the last CLN left £370,000 of the principal to clear there's 4.5% of the value of each conversion added to the loan so with £90,000 to add once the £2,000,000 is cleared.

Ocelot,

You've been trailing the Supreme Court judgement for months - perhaps you'd like to explain how it will benefit pi.

PPP's silence speaks volumes as to the likelihood of that deal,ecver happening and the transfer of any cash to consultants working on Portland Port (and presumably the E Yorkshire site) suggests that the conversion of HH-2z is financially beyond reach - and the lack of doing it for nearly 4 years since it was mooted as an option perhaps indicating it isn't a slam dunk certainty to work.

Even if PPP can pay for seismic that may just prove that the target for HH-3 isn't - just like Basur-4 was dropped.

A pyrrhic victory in the Supreme Court may give the chancers who won or lost yesterday another outing, and room for more conversion - that's about it.

UKOG RNS'd yesterday a letter that they first received on 20 May, put on their Web site on 23 May, deleted that version, got Summit to reissue exactly the same letter but dated 24 May and then RNS'd it the day of the AGM which likely enabled, with the help of posters like yourself, the CLN holders to dump 64,444,444 shares and a few unscrupulous day traders to maybe make, or lose, a few hundred quid.

Summit aren't 'at the table' they are watching from afar, both metaphorically and in reality with the Portland Port gas storage site hundreds of miles distant from Bacton, even the government could work out there's no synergy between Bacton and Portland Port with a map of the UK, kind words to sum up discussions but no committment to anything.

Ocelot,

I made it 120 before your post (and 122 before this one) - so not as dramatic a cull as you make out.

'Sometimes ukog plans work ?' - Vernonya, only those plans that stitch up traders, and maybe you missed this bit 'If only their actual plans were successful'

29-May-24 15:59:00 0.0239 64,444,444 Unknown* 0.024 0.027 15.40k

Not worth a lot, but then the conversions aren't that large. Took a while, but to save you 'positive' posters further shame having your posts repeated I'll repost this, from me, earlier today:-

'Does this give the CLN holders a chance to dump shares later today that they must vote in favour of the BoD at the AGM.

Sometimes a UKOG plan works - if only to stitch up traders?

If only their actual plans were successful'

Talking of wierd, it's wierd how certain posters who are consistently wrong about what is likely to happen to the company's projects, and thus eventually the SP, spend so much time here embarassing themselves with wrong predictions, no wonder they don't like previous posts being posted.