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Ocelot,

for years you've repeated or linked every seemingly positive RNS, Tweet or any article, regardless of how impartial the source might be, on here whilst the outcome has been failure after failure - even things that should help UKOG, oil price and, less likely, gas price has not eventually saved the share price.

Whilst UKOG has been magnificently poor at oil and gas exploration, and achieved very little in production despite claims that the Horse Hill wells would produce thousands of barrels a day, the current focus on a remote gas storage facility with, as yet, no complete plan (in fact when has any plan been more than hoping for success) so more funding rquired this year to prepare for the alloction application is strangely in keeping with previous high risk ventures where when the last transformational project has failed they desperately cast around for the next distraction to maintain their salaries.

Unless a large swathe of shareholders can be motivated to vote against the resolution requiring a 75% pass mark the BoD don't need to heed shareholders concerns and plough on spending all the cash raised not spent on their salaries on Portland Port hoping someone will join the project that they've probably been touting around the industry since they started.

The EBT shares conveniently appear to be in addition to what UKOG have authority to issue- another win- win for the BoD. The 3 billion plus were issued before the GM where the resolution was passed (and the consolidation), and the 3 billion were over the previous AGM authorisation.

Correction, 4.5% on £2million is £90,000 - oops

In normal circumstances the mcap rising as cash is brought into the company should happen, but the cash that these shares were issued for is long gone being handed over last June, nearly a year ago.

We don't know what price these shares will be converted at but they can reach back 15 days from whatever date they decide is the conversion date - it seems to have nothing to ðo with the date of this RNS based on previous conversions.

Don't forget that there's 4.5% to add to the loan balance (£45,000 on the £2million) and if the SP rises there are 33% extra warrants at a 40% premium to the conversion price issued each conversion, so far there will be a billion of those.

Then there's uncertainty as to whether they took the extra 'committed' 2 tranches of £500,000 - probably not if YA etc had a get out clause.

UKOG also added 10% to the mcap by getting the EBT to hold shares - the EBT is a win every which way........... for the BoD.

'30m at 0.031p at 16:38:14'

Looks like an opportunist sale by the loan note holders. Are these shares from the last conversion RNS, converted at 0.0305p, or the start of a new one we'll hear about some time in the future - suspect it's a new one.

Suspect SS would like as many shares converted out of the GM authority as once (if? when?) the AGM resolution is passed any conversion will come out of the AGM authority for 100% more shares - sounds a lot but the remaining loan notes after the last conversion are worth £420,000 - would ,need about a third of the shares in issue at the current SP.

UKOG acknowledge that the new authority is needed in part to service the CLN:- 'These resolutions also seek to satisfy certain obligations owed by the Company under the funding facility agreement as announced on 28 June 2023'

TH2,

the farm out has been offered for nearly 2 years. Despite claims of interested parties they've gone to farmout merchant of last resort - Envoie. Have all the likely candidates said no thanks.

The CPR isn't worth the paper it's printed on with a massive mistake in correlating GB-1 and

Alfold-1 poroperm crossplots and a rather dubious claim about the GWC - which occurs at a facies change, not from porous to tight sand but from tight into porous sand.

Even with the errors RPS is wary of the mapping and cites the need for the well to confirm the supposed gas column.

................a reminder of the sort of post expected from you, a few days before the final Pinarova RNS -

'TrollHunter2 Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 1,954 Price: 0.018 No Opinion

RE: The oil accumulation sits in the Pinarova crust 26 Jan 2024 09:28

How to wind up trolls and swampies.....post a positive comment on UKOG on the LSE chat board.

UKOG share price very oversold....re-rating coming. The swampies cannot stop capitalism!!!'

Oil accumulation in the Pinarova crust - no it wasn't, and the only rerate was the 10 to 1 consolidation making that 0.018p 0.18p vs the current SP of 0.325p ie an 80% drop.

anybody thinking this is the only example of ridiculous, and often proved wrong very quickly, ramping should click on Trollhunter2 and have a read.

Looks like the intern turned up for work today to do social media.

SS instruction - Looks like the Supreme Court judgement isn't going to be next week so just tweet the same old BS about 2050, ocelot will link it on that ramping site......he always does.

HH1AN2

Oh joy

He's bought back in after the run of criticism of UKOG, hope it isn't a P&D and he bought in on the spike, and you're doing his dirty work?

of course the heater - maybe it was a cold night and the oil's a bit sluggish with all that water in it?

But what about....

Isn't the gas flare in rocket mode?

Multiple 'tankers'

Seen a car full of oil executives / Schlumberger / BP

a drilling firm truck

SS asking for patients [sic]

Supreme Court judges coming to have a look at what a pathetic oil site looks like before announcing Finch has lost - next Wednesday? the week after?, the week after that? etc?

Ocelot,

The day of the Pinarova news the SP dropped dropped about 30% from 0.0185p to 0.012p, you say you expected 25% so slightly more, since then it has dropped from a 10 to 1 consolidated 0.12p to today's rise to 0.0365 - about 70%.

Since then there have been several items of news that have contributed to further falls, and no news that any sensible person knowing UKOG's record for hiding bad news would find 'good' - even though you have tried.

Announcing a GM where authority to issue 50% more shares was requested

At the same GM consolidating 10 to 1, and dropping the nominal value from 0.01p t0 0.0001p

Having to abandon the GM - although no reason was given the next move strongly suggests the resolution with 75% pass mark was going to be defeated

Instead of addressing pi concerns instructing the EBT to raise their shareholding to 10% before the reconvened GM, enabling the 75% resolution to pass.

2 further loan note conversions dragging the SP down.

BB planning for site retention being refused

AGM announcement seeking permission to issue 100% more shares and only mentioning cash for Portland Port and Loxley - but without a farm out UKOG can't afford to drill Loxley

Weeks of positive news expected soon not arriving

No sign PPP could afford to farm in to HH

No firm news of Loxley being farmed out

No news about what's planned in Turkey.

Every Thursday hoping that the Supreme Court judgement will be scheduled for next Wednesday - probably the reason for the current P&D

But it was Pinarova.......

Ocelot,

Given how often the share price does not follow your expectations it's hardly worth mentioning, but how often have you claimed all the bad news is in the SP only to see it drop on the expected (by some) bad news - dropping further than your expectation should be no surprise.

Since Pinarova the BoD has embarked on a anti-shareholder crusade - determined to ram through GM and AGM resolutions to give authority to issue 50% more shares at the GM and 100% more shares at the AGM by getting the EBT to hold 10% of the share capital - and vote in favour of the resolutions. This enables the BoD to continue to ignore the disparity between their pay and performance and pour any cash raised into the vanity Portland Port project in the hope of being awarded an allocation of guaranteed future price subsidy by government to be applied for later this year.

The loan notes have continued to be exchanged since the Pinarova RNS for shares with £420,000 remaining - or about 40% more shares.

No mention of future cash raised going to Horse Hill or Turkey, and no progress on the PPP farmin of HH (long silences from PPP about their ventures not boding well) or firm news of Loxley being farmed out - all things that have been long expected 'soon'.

With the only plans getting more fund raises away, farm ins happen at Loxley and Horse Hill, nothing about Turkey and the Portland Port money pit depending on an application later this year it's probably more surprising the SP has only dropped a bit over 50%.

Ocelot,

Reminder that UKOG's intangible assets for Loxley and Horse Hill are just a well away from being impaired - in fact anything left in Turkey should have been already written off but it looks like money spent on Basur has so far been retained as there was no impairment mentioned in the accounts for 2022 despite the failure of Basur-3, not drilling Basur-4 following the 2 phases of seismic to identify a location, and ruling out drilling in the Rean part of the structural feature.

With intangible assets recorded as £33.2 million net assets would be negative if intangibles weren't taken into account.

Perhaps UKOG are hoping that no one notices that Portland Port is 50 miles to the west of the Solent, joining the Solent Cluster certainly expanded the geography of the Solent.

The AGM notice only mentions funding for Portland Port and Loxley. But Loxley can only proceed with a farminee and UKOG could only agree a deal that had a full carry so in reality a fundraise would be for Portland Port - the company, and thus SS, is concentrating all cash resources on the Portland Port project to the exclusion of anything else.

Interesting that SS has two companies (mentioned on twitter) that were founded in tandem with UKOG’s interest, the first UKGeothermal in 2021, and then UKEn Holdings in 2023.

The requested authority to issue shares at the AGM is currently 3,876,840,000 – the same as is currently in issue, which would double the number of shares, but if there is another CLN conversion no doubt they will get the EBT to buy another 10% of the shares converted (at £0 000001 each – which means £1,000 per billion) and perform another clerical amendment to raise the future authority to equal the number of shares in issue the day of the meeting to maximise the amount of shares they can issue. Unfortunately the current CLN conversion is 'paying' in shares for cash almost certainly already mostly spent, not new cash.

Otherwise it seems the EBT shares are maintained at 10% because UKOG’s board is worried that pi are fed up with funding this life style company chasing what appear to be vanity projects. The EBT shares being voted in favour of the AGM resolutions practically guaranteeing they will be passed, even those requiring 75% in favour, with a shareholder base of itinerant traders, judging by the trading activity during P&Ds.

It will be end June before UKOG have to reveal how much cash was left at the end of March, and what has been spent in the 6 months before that, giving an indication of the burn rate and thus how long the cash will last. It will also reveal if the two extra £500,000 tranches of loan notes were taken, if they did the new authority would be required just to service that debt unless th SP rises. UKOG also have to submit accounts for UKEn by end of June, also indicating what has been spent so far on Portland Port up to September 2023, though whether they will meet the deadline or when they will be available on Companies House is another matter.

The Turkey announcement was 23 July 2020.

It wasn't a co-incidence that they were still suggesting HH-2z could be salvaged as a producer in June and the first OGA (as it was then) monthly production figures with significant water cuts were soon to be published - 9% water cut in May, released early September and 24% water cut in June released early October.

From the 30 June 2020 Interim Report (ie when UKOG already knew HH-1 was producing 24% water) about HH-2z:-

'A number of options are being reviewed for the future use of HH-2z, including stimulation to return it into long-term production, sidetracking the well to a different subsurface location and possibly converting it into a future water re-injection well to implement pressure support and further reduce future operating costs (as foreseen in the Horse Hill FDP)'

as for HH-1 in June (when UKOG knew the water cut was averaging 24%) things were all hunky dory apparently, this also from the interim report:-

'Post period a higher capacity and energy efficient linear rod pump was installed on HH-1, leading to increased production from the Portland interval. As of 29 June 2020, 113,143 bbl in total has been produced from Horse Hill'

Except the average daily production was dropping fast - April (first month 'post period') 243bopd, May 177bopd plus 18bwpd, June 158bopd plus 49bwpd.

The only other 'news' about HH-1 was this:-

Post-period, the Company also plans a significant intervention in HH-1 specifically designed to further improve flow into the wellbore. Together with a full reperforation of the entire Portland section using a different type of perforating gun than prior operations, a new , simpler production tubing completion will be installed. The new completion will permit the downhole pump to be installed below the Portland interval to significantly improve pump efficiency.'

Which lead to speculation that the reperforation of the whole section would improve production massively, and the deeper pump might be in the Kimmeridge - both BS.

On 16 July UKOG announced the completion of buying the PW production kit - I posted (remember still not knowing about the water ingress at HH-1):-

'The main issue though is that by buying this kit UKOG are admitting that this is the production set up at HH for quite a long time.'

Only nearly s.four year

Remember this classic tweet:-

'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM

Jul 5, 2022

JUMPING FOR JOY IN JUNE: The govt backs our Portland Port energy project … The govt backs our gas appraisal project at Loxley … PLUS encouraging oil seep in Turkey and new seismic plan at Horse Hill. And now for July!'

Government backing?

Encouraging oil seep in Turkey - oops

and seismic plan for HH - erm wait for PPP

or this classic as the testing was bombing

'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM

Oct 16, 2017

Broadford Bridge Oil Pouring Part One'

and not forgetting there was a part 2

This was in the RNS:-

'Broadford Bridge-1z ("BB-1z") continues to flow light sweet oil and gas from the Kimmeridge Limestones'

This is in the testing report for the 16 day test from 6/10/17 tp 22/10/17:-

The well was pumped over a 16-day period and in the middle of this period after recovery of 70 bbl from the well, hydrocarbons started to be produced back along with the spent acid and brine. The initial spot samples showed an oil-cut of between 2% and 20% at instantaneous rates up to 370 bfpd. Following shut down of the pump, the well continued to produce gas at sufficient rate to light the flare and continued for a period in excess of 30 minutes before depleting. As pumping continued, ultimately recovering a further 46 bbl fluid from the well, both the oil cut and the strength of the gas flare declined. At the end of pumping, with 116 bbl recovered, the oil cut was around 1% with no gas flare and increasing periods required for pressure build-up'

'The final returned fluids were analysed with pH 5.4, 123,000 ppm chlorides with 1% oil cut'

So the 'sweet light oil' being poured was from the approx one barrel of oil produced in the 16 day test that was underway when the oil pouring was tweeted.

This was also in the RNS:-

'Flow continues to clean up, demonstrating an increasing oil cut, together with sustained periods of associated gas flaring. The shrouded flare stack has been in daily operation, exhibiting a clean burn.'

What a surprise that they didn't give any details or update on the test when it ended. Then a month later, probably realising the game was up:-

RNS 15/11/17 - '£10 Million Financing and Commencement of BB-1z Optimised Flow Testing'

So the 152,796,721 shares were admitted to trading yesterday - which is what UKOG said in the RNS on 2 May.

Yet I posted on 2 May:-

'Finally a tranche of today's announced conversion appear to have been sold on Monday - 32,796,721 shares (the last 7 digits the same) at a price of 0.026p.

Perhaps UKOG could explain how shares supposedly admitted to trading next week look as though they were sold on Monday?'

'Monday' was 29 April. The conversion of 152,796,721 was at 0.0305p, these sold for 0.026p,

If one of UKOG's past expectations had come true even that wouldn't justify blindly believing that something they are claiming with no detailed backup - like every previous claim - was likely to come true this time.

Even the Loxley CPR which is based on minimal data has errors that significantly increase the risk of failure or at best a find that is not commercial - otherwise UKOG has avoided any examination of their projects or detailed forecasts of the financial benefit of the results of their activities - if successful.

Perhaps that's why a company with an income stream dependent on issuing ever cheaper shares just to help pay the salaries, let alone do anything, and appears to have no way of doing anything now without farming out half the family silver has such a low cap.

Unless valuations are backed up by full details UKOG are prepared to publish then it's very likely that there is a flaw in the valuation.

UKOG claim the £19.3 million intangible valuation (money spent on HH) is supported by a valuation based on 4 further wells being drilled - what are the assumptions, all successful? what costs to drill? what flow rates? water injection works? - wouldn't it be nice if UKOG CPR'd HH to justify that, and the valuation they carry for HH-1 which has risen this year (from £0.8mm to £1.4mm) despite using a lower OP ($78 then flat $75 after 2031 vs last year's $81 then flat $81 after 2031), but possibly resulting from using a more favourable discount rate (about 25% lower). With over a year of testing and 4 years of production surely there's enough data for a CPR - they had a Kimmeridge report done in 2019 (only mentioned as a footnote to justify contingent resources in the Kimmeridge) based on the testing - after that any Kimmeridge work at HH appeared to be stopped.

To claim that any estimate by UKOG, with a record of exaggeration and failure of potentially transformational. or national significance projects that clearly weren't, is reliable is absurd. The fact the 'successful' well out of 2 (HH-1) was 'worth' £0.8mm last year and this £1.4mm, but 4 new wells are worth £19.3mm after the cost of drilling new wells has been accounted for suggests there's no risking, a favourable view of possible production - and probably the super low discount rate - at least a CPR would have some indication of the sensitivity of the valuation to different inputs and pi could make their own judgement of what's likely.

If UKOG want to be believed put the calculations to the test of a CPR, otherwise it's just ramper fodder.

'and for BB failing to shoot seismic before drilling in the wrong place is unforgiveable'

Should be Basur-3....

UKOG has never learnt to live within their means - lead by an overpaid unsuccessful CEO who has a record, for whatever reason, of persevering with lost causes - out of the three wells SS has drilled the testing of both BB and Pinarova should have been abandoned long before it was, even with HH-2z pi were strung along until it was impossible to hide the failure (HH-1 was drilled by the Angus team I believe).

Now, and for years, instead of sorting out HH, getting HH-2z converted to an injector (although this may not be the certain win UKOG suggest) and drilling HH-3 they've wasted millions in Turkey and now more millions on the Portland port gas storage vanity project.

It hasn't even been bad luck - the Kimmeridge was a long shot out of structural closure, and AME were clearly farming out their dross it Turkey - and for BB failing to shoot seismic before drilling in the wrong place is unforgiveable - and then admitting the wells in the Resan section of the structure had issues with water - that was either known about but not mentioned or they're due diligence was lacking. Pinarova was a ridiculous but at least cheap well.

Unless there's a dramatic improvement in the SP nearly 4 billion shares won't even fund salaries for much more than 6 months, and they obviously won't, by 29 May, have cleared the loan notes so maybe a billion of the 3.8 billion will have to be set aside for that.

The current plan seems to be let's hope some mug comes along and funds Loxley 100% (and perhaps making the same mistake of not shooting seismic first) while hopefully some international investment company joins the Portland Port project in some unspecified way.

Maybe either happening will improve the SP but then there's the threat of issuing billions more shares the moment the SP improves - and with a guaranteed 10% of the shares voting in favour UKOG could call a GM at any time to get the confetti factory up and running when the 3.8 billion run out.

I had hoped that the AGM notice would have a plan that wasn't just more of the same but perhaps a plan that accepted cash was constrained so maybe somethng along the lines, for instance, that unless participation is assured in the near future the Portland Port gas storage project would be put on hold for a later round, as they already accept they may not get an allocation in the 2024 round and would then apply in the next.

Someone previously pointed out that last year Stephen Paul Sanderson incorporated UKEN Holdings Limited with himself as the only shareholder.

Is this a cunning plan to sell this company to UKOG as a holding company for the multiple gas storage subsidiaries as it couldn't possibly be a vehicle to take parts of UKOG private - although on reflection if nothing else Mr Sanderson has been well funded over the past 9 years by thousands of investors buying shares from various lenders given the shares at a price that's briefly (or in the future) below the market price.

Whilst most projects remain early stages, even though they've been on the books for years, HH with very little expenditure could be a nice little earner for a private company that doesn't have huge overheads and expensive and risky ambition. 40 bopd may not fund a company with staff costs over £2mm, let alone all the other costs, but with just a couple of site operatives and a manager the profit could fund a very pleasant retirement - and there's always DL waiting in the wings to help with going public - billions of barrels I tell ya........