Member Info for Penguins

They don't care they aren't even trying to pretend they're running the company in the interest of anyone but themselves.

The sequence after Wednesday’s BS about Loxley was predictable, Thursday a CLN conversion, today the EBT allocation followed by the AGM announcement – but not the resolutions or supporting statements – or should I say BS for posters like ocelot to repeat as if they’re facts rather than hopes – just like every ‘positive RNS since 2015.

Apologies for this but.......

Prior to today’s RNS the EBT had a total of 325,500,000 shares – the recent 3,005,000,000 plus 250,000,000 as of September 2023 (in the Annual Report) in the EBT, divided by 10.

But it seems they can’t be bothered to calculate 10% properly – and it isn’t a difficult calculation - the new award of 62,087,925 increases the total holding to 387,587,925 – 3,671 shares too many based on the total as it will be of 10 May.

It should have been 62,083,845 shares, bringing the UKOG total shares to 3,875,838,459 shares and the total shares in the EBT to 387,583,845 without rounding up. Because they got it wrong it means the EBT has 4,079 more shares than it should.

The previous EBT holding of 3,255,000,000 shares was also more than 10% the then total shares.

Who’s doing the maths at UKOG.

The same one doing the accounts? The predictions of production?

ZYX,

Maybe I wasn't clear - having pointed out how cheap shares were - '40 shares to a penny' - I thought this was self explanatory - 'Anyone who wanted to turn up could, the main cost would be trading fees', maybe I should have put the main cost apart from buying a few shares would be trding fees.

so not as far as I know

Ocelot forgets that at 40 shares to a penny a multipack of decent toilet tissue has about 20x less sheets than you could buy shares in UKOG, but does ocelot actually know what the SP is?

Even after consolidation everyone in the UK could have 4 shares each (worth about a tenth of a penny) just from the EBT holding and there would still be millions left over for the employees.

Anyone who wanted to turn up could, the main cost would be trading fees - does ocelot really believe in holding shares in UKOG forever is smart?

Ian,

....and what would be the point - they don't take published minutes it isn't broadcast and judging by their actions they are well aware they are unpopular - this EBT business illustrates they are defiant in the face of dissatisfaction with the way the company is run.

There's been nearly 560,000,000 shares issued since the GM so 10% is another 60 million shares to add to the 300 million odd already in the EBT - and they aren't considered part of the authorisation for issuing shares

The sequence of announcing unsubstantiated claims about interest in Loxley, perhaps hoping to help out the next days announcement of another conversion, followed by an announcement about gerrymandering the votes at the AGM shows they no longer care - if they ever did. Though maybe a little worried about the 75% passmark votes.

Can't wait for the AGM announcement which must be soon after this RNS, though if they wait a while longer the opportunity to stuff the EBT with more shares with the next conversion is surely on its way.

What are all these 'reward' shares for anyway apart from votes - extra share of the pot if they sell UKOG?

After consolidation there were 3,253,992,610 shares, and there was authority to issue 1,626,700,000 shares. Since then there have been 3 conversions, 13 March 206,965,282 @ 0.054p, 19 April 200,000,000 @ 0.405, and today's 152,796,721shares at a price, based on the £46,603, of 0.0305.

Those 3 conversions amount to 559,762,003 leaving authority to issue 1,066,937,997 more shares.

UKOG give a figure of £420,000 remaining of the £2,000,000 loan. Pretty obvious that unless the SP rises the remaining authority is insufficient to pay off the loan, and there's 4.5% of each conversion added to the debt so eventually that adds £90,000 to the £420,000 - so ultimately over half a million to pay in shares - at the current mid price that's about 1.9 billion shares.

Finally a tranche of today's announced conversion appear to have been sold on Monday - 32,796,721 shares (the last 7 digits the same) at a price of 0.026p.

Perhaps UKOG could explain how shares supposedly admitted to trading next week look as though they were sold on Monday?

Ocelot,

'this sounds very much like business as usual.'

Spot on, a BS RNS - and likely eventually to come to nought, even if Loxley is farmed out.

Ilovesushi,

you're right that the resolution to authorise more share would have been passed without the 3 billion EBT shares, the problem was disapplying preemption rights that previously the company insisted was required had to pass with 75% of the votes - without the EBT shares voting in favour that resolution wouldn't have passed.

By the way I expect the NPV valuation to be fairly arrived at, what stinks is by not having a published CPR UKOG can hide what the testing and production meant, and what the future production from HH-1 is expected to be, and possibly more telling whether what has happened was predictable and should have been conveyed to investors, rather than what was RNS'd.

.........of which by far the largest part was 'intangible' assets - intangible being 'not having physical presence', in this case money spent on projects that have not yet been totally proved to be valueless. Until the subsidiaries publish their accounts in June what the £30mm plus of intangible assets fully comprises won't be known - and even then there will probably lybe some gaps.

Of the 'tangible' assets (ie ithey exist) only those not operated by UKOG have valuations fully carried out by an external competent person, the UKOG board choosing to arrive at a valuation for HH-1 but avoid the embarrassment of the full 'workings' being published. Oil and Gas properties (HH-1 and Horndean) comprise just under £2mm, of which £1.4mm is the self determined value of HH-1.

Suspect the dump of the next conversion is already underway with the 31 million plus sell after hours on Monday. Now we're in May the CLN holders can ask for a new allocation of shares that they can choose a vwap for as their purchase price that won't be known until UKOG decide to report it, so far that's been when the following allocation is announced, policing it is impossible as they don't specify what date the vwap is from and share sales appear to precede any announcement. Like a casino allowing a roulette player to place a bet after the wheel has stopped.

Surprised the SP has only shifted a little, maybe the market has finally rumbled UKOG's MO - rampy (but on inspection meaningless) RNS followed by CLN RNS.

Envoi is a well known marketer of last resort. They're currently marketing Terrain's onshore UK portfolio including 10% of Brockham and Lidsey - sale rather than farmout though. Looking forward to seeing the flyers for Loxley.

A miracle?

They seem have put themselves in the position of not being masters of the company's destiny - with not even the spare cash to convert HH-2z, assuming it has ever been anything but a plan to keep the punters strung along.

So they have to wait and hope that something 'comes up' that creates a rise in the SP even if it's only temporary when the punters realise that news/plans and subsequent activity are months apart.

Plenty possible, though these have been expected soon for a while, the Loxley farm out expected 'soon' since 2022.

Supreme Court judgement which will expose whether the PPP HH farm in will happen, starting with 3D, some arrangement for Portland Port, Loxley farm in, something in Turkey.

'Any company can apply to NSTA when UKOG's PEDLs lapse due to insolvency.'

If the liceenses lapse that's it - there would need to be an Onshore Licensing Round for anyone to re-licence the areas- and there hasn't been one for a while - I suspect that the NSTA would be happy for all the onshore licenses to lapse.

But UKOG (or the receiver) can sell the licenses, or the companies, or UKOG's shares in those companies that hold them to a company that has, or can get, approval from NSTA.

PEDL 234 (BB & Loxley) is licensed by UKOG (234) Ltd, PEDL 137/246 (HH) UKOG Has shareholding in HHDL the licensee andUKOG isn't the operator of Avington or Horndean.

Will UKOG go to the expense of challenging the BB retention refusal - the alternative may be a more expensive restoration of the site.

But I'm sure when there's a sniff of supposed good news the ambulance chasers will arrive hoping to sell the idea the patient is alive , well and has years to live and ignore any diagnosis that the prognosis is not good.

DVT,

'At the last GM the special resolution, even with the 10% EBT votes, only passed by 78%'

Special resolutions do require 75% - but re-appointment of board members and the authority to issue shares is 50% - but for shares they are stuck with disapplying pre-emption rights that does require 75%.

Last time the pi were revolting the bribe was an open offer to get approval - which meant paying over the market price so there was only a modest (but surprising) participation, not sure it would work again. Will there be a stern warning tht the company, without the ability to issue billions more shares, will fold, however that's probably beeen true every year, and a promise to change - forgotten the moment the vote is won.

UKOG has spent a ridiculous amount of cash on supposedly potentially transformational, nationally important projects that even before they are drilled show little chance of delivering - at the AGM they need to lay out a focused costed work programme with an honest assessment of risk to justify any further authority to issue shres.

They also need to cut costs - dump the dead wood off the board that seemingly do nothing except agree, shares instead of at least half of pay, substantial purchases of shares in the market by directors to show they have 'belief' in what they're doing - something lacking since 2015 except the forced measly £12,000 by SS.

Sort out the farmouts at (almost) any equity cost for 100% carry or drop Loxley and be honest about HH. Get those international companies interested in the Portland Gas storage to pay up and participate or abandon the project that has no near term cashflow - and farmout their interest in Turkey or get out.

If any of these projects have worth in another companies opinion they should be snapped up - if not they're probably too risky anyway.

Could result in the company just being HH - but it would either show there could be some value in the supposed 'assets' or that the company hasn't communicated realistically about their value.

DVT,

UKOG hasn't held an AGM before end March since 2017, there must be a 'get out' - or it's considered such a minor infraction of the rules it isn't enforced.

But now UKOG has rumbled that the EBT can hold 10% of the shares - and it's almost certain that less than 10% of pi will vote - they can propose anything and guarantee it being approved. The BoD was forced to act before because of the support for 'Sanderson Out' and that garnered a committment for the BoD to buy shares that only SS followed through on - of course ocelot was joyful that even the 'Sanderson Out' movement failed to get 10% of shares - and judging by what happens elsewhere (Angus) the deception just continues so it was unlikely to change anything.

Not sure if there's anything pi can realistically do, most are traders uninterested in whether the company exists beyond the next P&D. Any legal approach would cost (and is there one?), and the non-execs who should better represent pi appear happy to take their £50k and go along with the execs.

With 6 month delays for accounts (9 months for the subsidiaries) the current state of UKOG's finances is complete guesswork but more cash will be needed some time this year. The current CLN seems structured completely against pi interests with no transparency, and UKOG doing anything is dependent on others farming in (Loxley), a Supreme Court decision then a farm in (HH - except, perhaps, the long delayed HH-2z conversion) , agreeing the next activity (Turkey) or being selected in a government beauty pageant.

But none will see instant activity, just news and plans, with the next drill 2025 - if ever - given UKOG's apparent priorities perhaps a salt cavern drill in a few years time.

Ocelot,

Pinarova was a way of stringing out the gamblers until the next news. Just like the PPP farm in, Loxley farm out and HH-2z conversion.

Once the Supreme Court judgement is handed down - not next week? - then it will be the application for a government hand out later this year, though when will the successful applicants be announced- so fitting for a company that has been loss making every year since the Gatwick Gusher / Kimmeridge fairytale.

This in the Annual Report:-

'Our loyal shareholders will hopefully be rewarded as soon as the Portland Port development consent application has been submitted in due course.'

So much for the O&G business, but it would be helpful if UKOG was going to become a gas storage company, a venture all the money raised appears to be spent on, if UKOG could present a business plan to investors with timelines lass vague than 'meeting Southern UK's predicted storage needs in 2050 and beyond'. Apart from a P&D to help out with hyped up news whoever thay've taken cash from (though perhaps that is, and has always been the business plan) what and when will be the long term investment justification?

BP,

Fees for the CLN were £502,000 ((Annual Report & Accounts)

So UKOG only got £1.5mm of the £2mm, chunky indeed, and every conversion adds 4.5% of the value of the conversion to the loan, plus 33% warrants at a 40% premium to the conversion price, though I don't suppose the warrants will be used.

We don't know if the 2 supposedly committed tranches of £500,000 were taken as there may have been conditions that allowed either side to back out of the deal.

But the whole process of conversion stinks with weeks to months passing between handing over the shares and UKOG RNSing the price of the conversion.

Looks like they've been busy already this week - and if previous conversions are any indication they'll drive the SP down further to put those sells into profit, and still havemthe option to flood the market and suppress any P&D for their margin, with the luxury of being able to ask for more whilst naming a vwap up to 15 days earlier, or later - but seemingly not restricted by when UKOG hand over the shares.

Totally against pi interests - but don't worry SS still gets paid so the ca £11,500 loss he's made on the shares he was forced to buy to stop the pi rebellion is only 11 or so days salary (before tax etc admittedly). I thought all the directors were offered the opportunity to participate but SS was most at risk of being voted off, and had most to lose - probably getting near to a million in pay since the plan was RNS'd - won't be long before that figure passes the mcap at the current rate of decline.

I wonder what price these 200,000,000 will be converted at, if it was today and at the mid price of 0.0375p it would only be another £75,000 off the value of shares still owed to the CLN holders. The 13 March shares were converted at a vwap that might have existed on 5 or 8 April - though I'm only going by closing prices that can be deceptive.

There were 2 trades that were almost certainly made by the CLN holders - 28,870,773 on 5 April at 0.05p and 61,094,509 on 12 April at 0.045p - they add up to 89,965,282.

Why made by the CLN holders - the conversion announced on 13 March was for 206,965,282 - I'm pretty sure the last 6 digits being the same is not a coincidence though unlike the previous CLN they're trying to disguise their selling a bit. Probably the 12 April sale was the remaining shares - sold at a loss of about £5,500.

They've already used up over 400,000,000 of the new authorisation to issue about 1.5billion shares. Whilst it's unlikely (and probably impossible with the restrictions) that the CLN holders will convert the remaining cash owed into shares before the AGM the remaining authority of about 1.1billion plus the just announced 200,000,000 would only be enough, at the current mid price, to clear £487,000 of the £545,000 remaining of the probably spent £2mm 'loaned' last June.

What's Adrian (permanently banned poster for being abusive, today's alias 'terrapin eater') going to ramp this weekend?

Supreme Court maybe May?

PPP farm in, maybe never?

HH-2z conversion, maybe risky or not worth doing?

Oil tanker, maybe one a week 'soon' (as in Adrian speak)?

So same as last week, last month, last year, (oil tanker last 5 years).

Or maybe just claim those that keep getting the outcome of the activities right are 'greenies' or 'activists' - all 'imo' the ultimate proof.

Yawn.

Ocelot,

The only benefit UKOG would have from UKEn getting pertnered by one of the 'significant international investors' we keep getting told about is that UKOG would not be funding the project through UKEn 100%. Payment to UKOG would surely only be for buying equity in UKEn?

At the moment UKOG are raising cash on the back of 'investors' buying shares sold by the CLN holders, who are actively destroying the SP, on hopes of exploration success to fund the Portland Port vanity project (or possible escape route for SS). But the UK exploration projects have been starved of funding so need farminees to move forward that will reduce UKOG's equity and thus the boasted success case valuations for HH, excluding HH-1, and Loxley exaggerate their already optimistic valuations.

The problem, as I posted earlier, is that reporting of testing by AIM oilers (and almost everything else) leaves a lot to be desired.

The issue here is that Angus has avoided mentioning how long the two flow periods were and what volumes of oil were produced.

I found this in the planning application in late 2019, WSCC/071/19:-

'2.1.4 During the flow periods, where oil was being produced to surface , the well eventually died and returns went back to 100% water.'

That's consistent with the downhole pressure being insufficient if the test tubing is filled with water not oil.

Despite initially suggesting that the well had intersected a water bearing fracture the current opinion is that 'drilling fluid remains in the well' (from the planning statement) - and the first action on returning to the well will be removing this.

In the planning statement they state the maximum rate of flow was 1599.6 with an average of 6.63% water, the oft used mix of a maximum and an average, though elsewhere they state (RNS 2/10/18) 1587bopd, suggesting a water cut during tthe maximum of less than 1% . Given at a maximum rate the water cut was less than 1% and when the well died it was 100% it would be interesting, if not tedious, to attempt to devise a scenario where there was an average of nearly 7% water during, presumably, the period of the test - but my bet would be an extremely rapid drop in rate and rapid increase in water cut. If there had been a significant volume of oil surely Angus would have mentioned it.

BP,

Let's see what happens when they test the well properly, which is the plan. The testing as reported seems a shambles - though AIM oiler reporting of testing leads much to be desired.

I don't remember seeing what volume of oil was produced during the tests rather than flow rates which can be deceptive. Did Angus ever publish the volumes of oil produced?

Ignoring the specific water issue that appears to be answered by statements from Angus about salinity there is nevertheless the lack of any other Kimmeridge well being put into production - all supposedly technical successes and much vaunted when drilled - Brockham, Lidsey, Broadford Bridge, even Horse Hill.