Member Info for Penguins

Troll,

Can you elaborate on how the Loxley appraisal of the Godley Bridge gas discovery will 'deliver in months' if it's a success? Planning being a stumbling block to start with. You can't even tanker away test production. Monetising gas won't be easy and if GB-1 is anything to go by that single well did not lead to development when the appraisal wells failed.

But I suspect that it will be a long time before Loxley is drilled so whether the planning is passed or rejected (and then passed on appeal) won't make any difference to when it happens.

As for a CPR for HH the failure of HH-2z has probably been kicked that into the long grass, not covid.

But UKOG will have produced in effect a CPR as without that level of information (flows, reserves) the OGA wouldn't have approved production from HH-1 Portland. What is it preventing a CPR being commissioned and enabling RBL rather than sharecoin?

Could you also explain 'we know the fundamentals are strong'?

For the Weald we know the Portland has a water problem at HH, the Kimmeridge seems practically unmentionable, IOW is appraising a failed second well deviating to nearly the same location and Turkey we know very little about - and at HH the company is meant to be recompleting HH-1 (since early June) and we are waiting to hear about plans for HH-2z which must have been known to have failed long before the announcement in late June given the (apparently always oil filled) waste tankers seen way before that.

Argus,

not panicking at all.

Sorry didn't your 5 months fall within the 8 months so far this year? I did mention the receipts for the 6 months prior to 31 March, and actually pointed out they were net of OPEX as a comparison.

The comments about no movable were to do with the Kimmeridge - and based on HHDL documentation that they might have to swab to get a sample. How much Kimmeridge oil has been produced this year?

Maybe there is an issue with maturity.....

I've noticed ( a matter of balance) you don't mention large share sales (well you do but claim they are buys), don't mention when the SP goes down, nor when the oil price goes down, any reason apart from, as you've claimed previously, to annoy other posters?

Argus,

whatever you do don't forget the approx 15 bopd from high cost Horndean (6 months to 31/03/20 revenue £88,000, cost of sales £40,000). But as UKOG/HHDL is quite capable of spending £1mm a month during testing operations the $2,000,000 revenue explains the need for cash raisings. In the 6 months to 31/03/20 total receipts (OK net of OPEX) from test oil sales was £995,000 (and, see below, they claim they were producing over 300bopd almost continuously!) - seems like you're expecting a lot more oil production in the 8 months to today as the average price is going to be much lower than the 6 months to end March 20202 ($55 - $60?) - why not explain your figures?

Have you also allowed for UKOG only having 86% of HH, but is 295bopd 'over 300bopd'?

From the interim results (30/06) covering 6 months up to 31 March:-

'The Horse Hill-1 well (HH-1) continued producing at high rates of over 300 bopd almost continuously during the period.'

May production should be available September, should be interesting.

Troll

What gas do they sell? Would that be the gas they flare at HH or that coming out of SS's mouth selling the dream.

Also depends on your definition of 'making money' as against 'loss leader' when the costs of running the UKOG empire are taken into account. Best of all is the idea that SS iis going to get a CPR done on HH any time soon so we can compare reality with the promises and expectations.

Troll,

Are you deramping:'look at the fundamentals and check the potential of each of UKOG's many assets yet to monetise'

and how long have most of those 'assets' been available to UKOG to get on and find out if they are, or aren't, assets that have any value? In 2018 promises of 2 wells in PEDL 234, Arreton 3 and Godshill 1 , Holmwood (now A24) most to be drilled in 2020 (November 2018 Corporate Presentation), several with planning applications meant to be submitted in 2018 that weren't

Please don't claim that the planning process is delaying them, UKOG never keep to their schedule for submission even though they know it can be a slow and difficult process.

But HH has permission for multiple wells which were going to be drilled in 2019/2020 to develop the Kimmeridge and Portland but UKOG would prefer to pay 100% of a well in Turkey (plus paying for seismic) to earn 50% interest in the license than get their flagship UK asset sailing.

Is the desperate gambler putting $5mm on red (or black) or is it he putting it all on 00 on investors behalf - though of course UKOG doesn't actually have the money anyway......yet.

Oilriches

'The 5 days trading at the end of June was about £4m a day traded. Hence why the sp went from 0.17 to 0.54.'

Interesting though that if you take the last 5 trading days of June - 24/06 08:00 the SP (mid) was 0.47p. 30/06 16:30 the SP mid was 0.235p - the SP halved. The 0.54p high occurred in early trading on 24/06, dropping that day to close at

All about 'events' which can seriously mess with expectations.

Kammi,

just telling it how it is - not egging nor ****ging off UKOG (or other posters). Happy to debate, acknowledge mistakes and question / examine other posters assertions, you should try it some time rather than just talking about the SP of companies or ****ging off other posters you disagree with (profile) but little else to say.

starting to prove my point I see.......

If you mean by negativity being wiped away wild guesses of future production, reserves, SP etc drowning any other narrative then of course you are probably right. Anyone making sensible guesses of these will be accused of deramping etc. - whilst past performance is no indicator... etc. ...so far the wild guesses have been wrong.

But of course UKOG quote a flow rate with no other information except wells have flowed at that rate in the analogous field, is it likely that rate is representative of long term flow rates- if it were I'm pretty sure UKOG might have suggested that in the presentation - and I would have thought with 6 wells AME would have no need to dilute their interest in an adjacent prospect for a few million quid..

It's not wild cat drilling, I never said it was, just appraising a modest structure at a level with previously seen oil shows. I wonder why the original target was (presumably)dry? On trend with fields 100kms away (Ocelot, indeed geology doesn't respect national boundaries just a suggestion that the large fields weren't nearby), but there's no suggestion that Resan will be of a similar size, it's getting monotonous but there's a field 27km away that AME operate and will have more stats than 'wells have flowed at 1300bopd'. Reading UKOG past RNS you can say HH-1 flowed at 1688 bopd from 3 levels.

and whilst lots of countries have state oil companies that participate in licences, some even paying their way, do any have their own seismic vessel and offshore drilling rig to pursue their own objectives?

Oilriches,

OK the field is in the SE Anatolian Basin, but the geology will vary across the basin. The size of the fields near to the licence may be significant to UKOG but the large fields in the Zagros Fold Belt are not on its periphery, and not even in Turkey. As for unconventional I suspect it wasn't mentioned as it doesn't appear to be a play in the immediate area.

Until more information about the prospect and the adjacent analogous field is released it's impossible to assess how good a deal this might be. Seems the advice is ramp the drill, sell before the results (which has always been good advice where UKOG is involved) which doesn't quite match the positivity.

Whilst the discovery of gas in the Black Sea is no doubt, if successfully appraised and developed, good news for Turkey it has absolutely no bearing on UKOGs licence. If anything the fact the seismic and drilling seems to have been performed solely by the state oil company could be an indication that Turkey may become less open to foreign companies participating in E&P.

I don't think that the license is in the Anatolian Basin.

Have a look at slide 7 of the Turkish presentation.......It's on the fringes of the Zagros Fold Belt and a long way from the giant fields.

Off out so can't discuss more.

Tymers,

You've been essentially telling the £1 to £5 story for a while with your wholly inaccurate SP predictions. Unfortunately if anyone thought your SP predictions were anything other than BS they will have found their £1 investment somewhat diminished.

Of course a stopped clock is right twice a day - but yours must be running a few minutes a day slow.

Either your in depth analytics elsewhere have been wrong for the last couple of years, or you just come on here to lie.

You don't need to answer.

Sinbad,

Strangely Aladdin are American, Corporate Headquarters, Wichita, Kansas - USA .......but seem to employ 'locals' and have been working in Turkey fpr a long time.

Proven oil shows within the target in previous wells is a good start but finding out whether it will flow in sufficient quantities for long enough is what UKOG will be paying 100% of. Why UKOG didn't expand on the information about the nearby analogue field (ie same reservoir in the next on trend structure to the SE) doscovered in 2014 and with 6 production wells, is a mystery.

Unfortunately the large fields are a long way away and the OIP being bandied about, even with upside, isn't in the same league. What that OIP is based on is not known - is the seismic planned the first to be shot there as a lot of 'older' drilling was based on surface features. Anyway OIP,as has been ably demonstrated with regard to the Kimmeridge, is no guarantee of riches however the figure has been arrived at.

There has been too little information given out by UKOG about this new venture, but then UKOG doesn't even keep investors informed as to what is currently happening at Horse Hill and when the proposed work on HH-1 will be performed and what they propose to do with HH-2z, nearly 8 weeks on from admitting the intervention failed.

Oilriches

Maybe following the reperforation the flow rate will be 500bopd, but what's the evidence?

The claim was the initial sustainable flow rate could be around 362 bopd. This was modelled on the pre-HH-2 model that the whole of the Portland contributed.

Following HH-2 UKOG determined that the 'lions share' came from a 35 ft interval which can be seen on the Nutech CPI in the April 2015 RNS.

In recent RNS the rate has been described as over 300bopd (28/4), they stated (3/6) 0that the bigger pump improved flow but typically failed to mention what that new rate was so the suspicion is it wasn't UKOGs favourite 'significant'.

The proposed reconfiguration and reperforation was expected to improve the rate materially (4/6). But by 30/6 this had become 'specifically designed to further improve flow into the wellbore'.

So does that sound like a ca 200bopd improvement?

Tollesbury,

your earlier post was interesting - self awareness lacking though?

'Perfect example of how someone who begins with reasonable objective posts and then probably without any ill intent gets sucked into the bulletin board side show and is then transformed into your run of the mill internet troll'

You seem to appear as a prop for Trollhunter who has consistently 'trolled' posts that suggested that HH wouldn't be a fantastic success - how has that turned out? and Tymers..........

anyway to get back to interesting technical matters - Ohmetoe, quite wrong.

But it brings up an interesting point about oil generation/maturity and timing for the Weald Basin.

UKOG (and Angus) made much of the fact that the Kimmeridge is mature at HH and Brockham, but as Angus probably found out what probably matters is whether it is still oil generative. In the Weald most oil generation occurred during Cretaceous with Tertiery uplift having 'lifted the source rocks out of the temperatures and pressures required for hydrocarbon generation, such that it was effectively halted by Miocene times, although it may have continued into the Tertiary in the less disturbed western areas.' (extract from 'THE HYDROCARBON PROSPECTIVITY OF BRITAIN’S ONSHORE BASINS' - Promote 2014 publication by DECC).

So mature at HH, but probably not still oil generative which is probably why UKOG put 'Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial' in the Loxley application.

From the same publication:- 'The uplift gave rise to an important second phase of oil migration and remigration of both oil and gas as the result of tilting of pathways and destruction of many earlier traps.'

So later forming traps could be oil filled if in a remigration pathway, but requires identifying paleo traps and understanding paleo subsurface topography to recreate the migration routes.

Trollhunter,

So has it really been a successful strategy so far believing those RNS that are so 'positive' (but please don't read the caveats). Is Turkey next for the over-hyped, under delivery treatment, or Loxley, or IOW - enabling those ramping posts?

HH-2z:-
'building confidence that the previously reported 720-1,080 bopd horizontal well production targets are increasingly attainable'
'Storage tank upgrade now installed and hooked-up with 2,000+ barrels total capacity for imminent HH-2z flow testing'
'routine intervention'
'this is an excellent result for the Company as it has enabled HH-2z to flow dry oil to surface at encouraging initial rates'

BB-1/1z
'provides further "proof of concept" that the Kimmeridge of the central Weald may contain an extensive, thick, continuous oil deposit'
'...completion of the well as a potential oil-producer...designed to provide significant future cost and potential test performance benefits'
'Broadford Bridge-1z ("BB-1z") sidetrack completed as a potential oil producer'
'Broadford Bridge Oil Pouring Part One'
'This £10 MM funding, the largest in the Company's short history, ensures that our stated drilling and testing programme, spanning four wells over the next 12 months, is fully funded'

HH-1 Kimmeridge:-
'Impact of Kimmeridge Limestone Oil on UK Economy'
'Future peak oil production could provide approximately 4% to 27% of 2014 UK daily oil demand over the life of the project
The Gross Value Added to the UK economy could range from £7.1 billion to £52.6 billion
Generation of between approximately 1,000 to 5,600 jobs in the UK, averaged over the project's lifetime
Lifetime tax revenues of between £2.1 billion to £18.1 billion'
'this "Weald hybrid play" has the potential for significant daily oil production.'
'we should not lose sight of the significance of the potential prize that lies in the underlying primary Kimmeridge objective'

HH-1 Portland 2016:-
'Final Portland Flow Test........A larger 26-ft stroke pump was installed resulting in a maximum rate in excess of 360 bopd and an average stable rate of 323 bopd over 8.5 hours. This flow rate was still limited by pump capacity'
'The Portland also has greater flow potential as rates were limited by the test pump's maximum capacity'

2020:- 'The Horse Hill-1 well (HH-1) continued producing at high rates of over 300 bopd almost continuously during the period. Post period a higher capacity and energy efficient linear rod pump was installed on HH-1, leading to increased production from the Portland interval.'

Only if someone has traded and sold on spikes will you have made money since 2017 - nothing wrong with that unless they throw all morality out of the window and claim to be buying, averaging down, and holding for whatever crazy price they are currently posting is going to happen 'within weeks' whilst selling and denigrating anyone who disagrees - and then come on here gloating and goading.

Perhaps, perhaps not........didn't seem to be a problem in 2013.

AME raises US$ 20 Million in New Equity from 4D Global Energy Advisors SAS

22/02/2013

Wichita, Kansas – 22 February 2013 – Aladdin Middle East Ltd. (“AME”), an independent oil and gas company with primary operations in Turkey, announced today that it has raised US$20 million in new equity from 4D Global Energy Advisors SAS (“4DGEA), a Paris-based private equity investor that specializes in the energy sector.

But you're right it is all about risk - offloading it on to UKOG.

I certainly understand decline rates in naturally fractured carbonate reservoirs, and I suspect that UKOG investors who have been around since 2016 understand the difference between the rates seen from the KL4 and KL3 initially in HH-1in 2016 (901 & 464 respectively, these with with the flow rate from the Portland lead to incessant claims of 1688bopd being expected from HH-1) - and that the Kimmeridge is no longer mentioned at the same time as HH-1 and the well currently producing - well it was 'over 300bopd' at the end of June when no mention was made as to what the production was using the higher capacity pump.

Maybe these fields started out at great rates and this is from slide 11 of the presentation:-'Wells on East Sadak have flowed at 1,300 bopd from naturally fractured and dolomitized Cretaceous Mardin limestones'

But why no mention of the flow rates now from this field which is producing from the Resan target reservoir less than 20 miles away along strike.

I'll repeat (slightly modified) if the Resan wells will produce 1000bopd for a significant period - not just a 'UKOG special' initial short term rate - then why would AME farm the licence out to anyone when just one well would be probably more than all these 'old' fields produce?

Trollhunter,

could you tell us where you got this figure of 1000bopd, from each well?

AME seem to have very modest production from a number of fields.

Eruh Licence – no information although this field is in production from the proposed reservoir target for Resan, and is a nearby field. Odd that UKOG didn't quote any figures for flow rates etc for that field.

Zeynel-Nemrut Lease The total monthly oil production is around 3.000 bbls/month. AME holds %25 WI in the concession. AME net 25bopd.

Arpatepe Production Lease Daily net oil production is approximately 335 bbls/day from 6 production wells (AME 20%) It's possible that net oil means oil net of water so possible AME share is only about 70bopd

Karakilise Licence Current daily net oil production is ~20 bbls/day from only Karakilise-1 Well (AME 50%)

Petek-1 well was put on production in 11 February 2014 and is producing from Cretaceous reservoir in the Mardin Group carbonates with 35.9° API gravity at 100 bbl/day. AME holds %50

ALTINAKAR-BASAKLI PRODUCTION LEASE – according to GYP production was about 21,000bbls in 2014

From GYP website:
Altinakar Field Although initial production rate was increased to 60 bbls/d for a week, a quick decline occurred, and an original rate of 15 bbls/d was resumed afterwards. Currently, daily oil production rate is 12 bbls and the total production from the well is 14,080 bbls.
Basakli Field Having installed a pump on July 11, 2014, the well produced daily 115 bbls crude oil with 25% water cut. Since June 2015, daily oil production of the well is 60 bbls and the total production is 27,500 bbls.

With most of their fields with wells producing in the tens of bopd rather than hundreds do you seriously think if there was a chance each well could produce 1000bopd that AME would have farmed out the first well to UKOG saving £3mm - after all they own the drill rig so could drill it for a bargain price.

and this is their business strategy:-

'We reduce initial investments invested in high-risk exploration.....'

eg getting UKOG to pay 100%..........

'AME asset base includes large positions in several long-running pieces that generate little to no cash flow. We will continue to high-grade our portfolio and consider divestitures and joint ventures where the underlying values are not reflected in our financials.'

eg farming out 50% to UKOG............

HH1AN2,

anything else - a comment, an argument against?

It's something I agree with and have said so before when posters claim the government 'supports UKOG' without any factual basis.

Here's my similar take from 8 July 2020, a response to this post from wasred 'do inform us from where this inside information, re the government would be happy in onshore energy development was abandoned, came. The pub at the weekend??????. SS, UU.:-

'actions speak louder than words. Offshore rounds are held regularly, onshore rounds the last one closed 2015, the one before that 2008. Onshore has small sites producing little oil but requires relatively a lot of oversight. Mostly small, underfunded companies operating on a shoestring whose purpose is primarily to pay the BOD wages yet inferring that a licence from the 'government' and meetings with the OGA shows some sort of support for their endeavors, whereas with so little competition applying for a licence with virtually no money and a work programme that consists of desk studies can get you a licence.

For example this is an extract from the consultation document recently issued on the revised OGA Strategy:

'secure that the maximum value of economically recoverable petroleum is recovered from the strata beneath relevant UK waters; and in doing so'

They often (always?) seem to forget there's an onshore industry.'

wasred didn't respond either.......

Tymers,

I've always understood - what I can't stand are two faced posters who claim they are holding for some ridiculous price ('Not slicing until at least 1p way undervalued ukog united') because of some made up rubbish that might fool a 3 year old (and some posters here) then claim anyone who disagrees is a swampy etc, posts they only post to irritate and annoy and then boast about selling out at a much lower price - because thats

I think that makes you an irrelevant troll on this board.

I rarely comment on the SP as it is, as so many posters here depend on, at the fickle whim of sentiment sometimes driven by a concerted effort at pumping the price, sometimes by the company.

But it will ultimately be openly reported results that will determine the value of this company rather than fluctuations bought about by steps on the way to those results. Mr I has it right that speculative traders will dive in, but they will also sell out before the outcome of, in the case of Loxley, the planning decision. The SP reached a recent high 3 trading days before the Loxley planning meeting, not on the day.

But is around 0.2p 'cheap' just because it was pumped to around 0.5p briefly before news of HH-2z was released?

The 3 separate oil and gas sites being 'progressed' (mentioned by Trollhunter) are presumably Loxley, IOW and Turkey. All three are appraisals of previous tests - none of which have been progressed until now. Godley Bridge was unsuccessfully appraised soon after discovery and the IOW (Arreton-2) well failed to flow. In Turkey whilst initial flows and non-analogous fields have been cited - no information about current production, flow rates etc has been quoted from the E Sadak Field the truly analogous nearby field operated by AME.

There is also the issue that whist the reperforation of HH-1 and site prep for Loxley and planning progress for IOW (and Loxley?) is said to be funded by the remainder of the recent placings the funds within UKOG will be eroded just by the normal course of business, although none of the more expensive activities have started yet so could be funded again through the next placing which will be required for drilling Resan. Any other upcoming drilling or major works will also need funding as any cash profits from HH-1 production are needed there; unlikely Resan even if successful will be exporting cash to the UK any time soon; and Loxley even if successful being gas won't be monetised quickly, so any UKOG UK progress will need funding for a while yet and until these wells are demonstrably successful, not just encouraging oil shows or short burst flows, it's difficult to justify any value to UKOG from these excursions away from HH except those based on hope/sentiment/belief. We don't even know (after years since discovery) how sustainable the 'more than' 300bopd is at HH, or what the hoped for improvement from the reperforation might be, nor what might become of HH-2z six weeks on from the admission the water problem wasn't solved.