Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
PPP have gone rather quiet about both CT wells after almost weekly updates in November, wonder what the CT-1H current production is, and what's happening with CT-4H?
and what happened to 'The company will report a more accurate assessment on water cut once full production to the facilities has been stabilized over the course of the next few weeks.' in the 30 October RNS, or this from 7 November:- 'The well's production is still being optimised over this extended testing period and the Company will advise of flow rates and decline curves in due course.'
They've got authority to issue about 100million shares (£1,002,991 worth of shares with a nominal value of £0.01) but they have borrowed about 60 million shares they need to give back - so assuming 40 million can be used for a placing/s at the current SP (sell 2p) that's only £800,000. Of course I expect PPP is hoping to pump the SP up but if the Texas wells don't perform or decline rapidly they might need to raise just to shoot the seismic.
Even if they don't replace the borrowed shares at the current SP that's only a little over £2,000,000.
But this is complete BS 'Most potential and those who are already share holders willl be asking why do the usual suspects on here enjoy insulting and mass reporting and banning posters who post positively on here'
The only banned poster is you - and you seem to be going for a world record for banned accounts, one already today.
Otherwise sonmoon is another reincarnation of Ells / JR90 / G-Martin and a few other accounts (at least one before Elsvalexpert or whatever it was called). Apart from one slip up the accounts are sequential and closed rather than banned when the wrong claims have mounted up. Surprised after posting that UKOG were fully funded on 11Jan, followed by a placing on 12 Jan 'ells' didn't close the sonmoon account.
But I can see why you don't like certain accounts that expose your lies ('trust me' what a laugh) - but you mistake ignoring them for not being able to counter them - like earlier when you (as Tonyginaro) claimed that no one knew when the oil smell happened - when you're caught out lying you resort to insults, or change the subject or hope you're account is removed - or all three.
Tony,
presumably you view UKOG not mentioning the oil smell for a couple of weeks as not a good sign - well this might blow your mind as they didn't mention the oil sample came from when they set the casing until then either - they did show the sample in a tweet on 21 April but they were tweeting and RNSing about the swab test of the Hoya they had just drilled through after setting the casing. It even fooled DL into thinking it was from the section they were about to swab test.
Not mentioned in the 18 April RNS - following the casing being set, not mentioned in the 21 April RNS though they were tweeting it as if it was 'urgently being shown rather tha days after it happened, and not mentioned in the 25 April RNS after the failed swab test.
Did they hold the news back of this oil in the mud pit in case they wanted to 'beef up' the news on another interval but couldn't RNS it as they would have had to have been honest about where it came from?
I guess if they recover 9 times the volume of oil in that bottle this time will they consider it a success - but quoting wells elsewhere in a different play / formation is pointless.
As AME put in their annual report if it worked it would be first in the region
Tony,
perhaps read AME's Business Strategy - this is number 4 in the list:-
4- Unlock net asset value of the portfolio..
AME asset base includes large positions in several long-running pieces that generate little to no cash flow. We will continue to high-grade our portfolio and consider divestitures and joint ventures where the underlying values are not reflected in our financials'
and reflect on the fact UKOG went into the Resan licence joint venture and paid 100% of the first well, Basur-3 and the seismic they should have shot first - as the well was drilled in the wrong place because the prospect was nowhere near as big as hoped.
Then in the 2022 AME Annual Report this about the Pinarova well:-
'The only exception will be testing the Resan shallow accumulation. Not only will these wells be quick and cheap the costs are carried by our JV partners and if successful would be a first in the region'
So the question is how much has this AME paid - of is UKOG paying most of the costs.
Tony,
Perhaps you should read (and understand) the RNS:-
we do know when they smelt the oil:-
3 May RNS:-
'The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface'
and we know that zone was cased off already by 18 April. 18 April RNS:-
'UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that Pinarova-1's 9⅝ inch casing is now set and cemented down to 287 metres below surface.'
Although none of these say while drilling 21/11 RNS:-
'The new guns will be deployed over the Germik/Hoya section where strong oil odours at surface were recorded over a 12-hour period during drilling'
So who is telling stories and who is quoting facts?
Ocelot,
You posted:-
'Whatever it is they are trying to prove, they have gone to a lot of trouble to get here.'
UKOG went to a lot of trouble and expense testing Broadford Bridge so UKOG persevering spending cash obtained by selling shares on the cheap may only prove that the original perforating did reach the formation or it didn't matter whether it did or didn't.
Whether they were aware, as a poster here was, that it could take months to find and get a hopefully suitable perforating equipment and then a couple of months once in Turkey to get it on site isn't known, though it was convenient to keep the story going during a year of virtually no activity - just paperwork on Loxley and the Portland gas storage project - probably mostly done by consultants.
It's noticeable that they no longer mention the oil recovered from the mud pit was when they set casing so they have no idea where it originally came from in the hole they had already drilled, and as Ibug illustrates UKOG also failed to mention the oil smell in any RNS, including the one immediately after it happened, until they had finished drilling, after unsuccessfully swab tested a zone in the Hoya with oil shows, and failing to test the primary target.
Assuming they perforate the casing this time results could be soon.
'Masquerading on here as oil experts LOL!'. Well I've never claimed to be an oil expert - so
For someone masquerading as 'not Adrian', a banned poster, that's a bit rich.
I'll keep it fairly short for those of a limited attention span.
No amount of ramping has affected the outcome of Broadford Bridge or Basur-3, nor has it managed to stop the decline at HH nor made HH-2z successful, nor made the previous swab test of Pinarova successful. All had pump and dumps at various times but ultimately the SP has dropped.
Those pointing out the shortcomings and likely failure were ridiculed and accused of much the same BS as you are spouting now by those predicting tremendous success.
It isn't predicting failure that has lead to UKOG being 'harmed' - it's the failure of the projects - there's also a credibility gap with posters saying how great everything will be - we're on the third episode of predictions of oil flowing in Turkey when the first two (Basur-3 and the swab test of Pinarova) were failures.
I better not mention the disastrous for the SP cash raises, and profligate spending on equity in HH. Bought 35% for £12mm - farming out (maybe) 49% for £4.6mm - or just £2.3mm uplift.
Adrian,
Predicting something will fail is not the same as hoping it will fail.
As you're (usually) 'hoping' that there will be success, that doesn't happen, I can understand your confusion between a logical expectation and belief.
I'd certainly be happy if the test is successful, it's just that what is probably a tight carbonate, that didn't have oil shows and the company ignored until all the other possibilities failed, and then interpret that the first perforating failed - though it might not have - and of course UKOG's next move if the well results are positive (oil sample?), then they will go looking for a deeper accumulation rather may not exist - and they hope it's spilling not leaking - though the shot hole oil and the previous sample may be direct from a source rock - their first interpretation.
You posted:
'Penguins has insuated for many years UKOG are frauds. Claiming they have been drilling no hope wells deliberately to raise money just to pay directors wages'
I'm pretty sure UKOG deliberately drill every well because they hope they will beat the odds, but as I've explained previously they can't secure good acreage and end up either drilling (or wanting to drill) discarded acreage with an undeveloped poor discovery (Basur, Loxley and others in acreage now relinquished) or a risky new play - BB, Pinarova.
I have posted it was fortuitous that it has taken so long to secure the perforating equipment during a year when UKOG did nothing much except manage (expensive) consultants dealing with Loxley planning conditions and the Portland gas storage project.
Whilst UKOG has used the legal challenges in their planning application for BB as an excuse for no progress there - by claiming that despite having cored the Kimmeridge in BB-1, logged it extensively in BB-1z and tested 5 KLs for long periods they need to wait for Loxley and HH drills for more information on the Kimmeridge in distant wells - however at HH they ducked deepening and logging HH-2 extensively in 2019 (ie after BB was drilled).
As for any posters claiming oilfield knowledge the sad truth is it's either a poor reflection on the professionals employed by UKOG or the veracity of UKOG RNS that they are better able to predict and explain the likely outcome of UKOG's activities than UKOG's positive outcomes with little or no explanation as to how risky their expectations are in RNS.
But as for insinuation:-
'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
SS is a a disgrace . Incompetent. Lazy and greedy. #ukog But UKOG have huge Weald assets that in the right hands can be fracked. Sanderson just sits on ha ds. Horsehill and Broadford Bridge huge.
He can't even get planning paper work right.But he can place and pay himself .
5:40 PM · Sep 5, 2022
Not soberedup since last night?
what are you goingon about, most posters who have managed to at least retain some graspof reality would realise that 'BP,' is addressing the poster named Bubblepoint.
Like most posters will addressthe most recent to register poster as Adrian.
Too busy today to play your silly games.
Your posts don't upset they go to prove this point in my post:-
'How easily were investors fooled by that and subsequent claims about projects where desperate posters were happy to repeat any positive claim by UKOG (and many probably not fooled judging by the dumps before results) whilst regularly there was conflicting, factual, evidence that UKOG's expectations were highly unlikely to be the outcome.'
As true about Dunsfold / Loxley as Turkey, Broadford Bridge and HH.
But the sky does keep falling in.
and I made an error in my last post the third paragraph should read:
'But if there are any 'greens' they are a subset - a few posters on a fairly insignificant bulletin board that has few posters anyway except on days when it's swarming with pump and dumpers like Adrian.'
BTW it's pretty obvious who on this board knows what they are talking about vs a person who claims no knowledge of O&G E&P (ocelot) and a person who was fed BS by SS for a short time at HH and takes photos of tankers and the site from a footpath - usually coming to the wrong conclusion from either observation.
BP,
'Framing' posters as activists is trying to suggest that their opinions are biased rather than realistic.
Perhaps there are nimby or green activists, or posters who are upset with the company for continually making unrealistic claims - but they tend to out themselves with very little commentary on the projects but plenty about the company or SS.
But if there are any 'greens' they are a subset - a few posters on a fairly insignificant bulletin board that has few posters anyway except on days when it's swarming with pump and dumpers.
Ocelot, and others, have tried in the past to suggest that those that are negative, in their opinion, are responsible for the lowly share price, it just shows how unrealistically positive they are about projects, and by their slavish repetition of UKOG PR, how unrealistic UKOG RNS about the projects are, given the outcome of every venture so far vs UKOG expectations.
I became interested (possibly for reasons that may be obvious to some) in UKOG during the claims made about the Kimmeridge in 2015 and having read the BGS Weald Shale report was amazed at the negative spin being put on it by DL when it was possible that the report was responsible for UKOG's attempts at producing the micrites (the KLs). The report suggested the micrites could be a possible target for production but the report was about the shales and the small volume of producible (and large volume of locked in) oil etc quoted was that in the shales.
How easily were investors fooled by that and subsequent claims about projects where desperate posters were happy to repeat any positive claim by UKOG (and many probably not fooled judging by the dumps before results) whilst regularly there was conflicting, factual, evidence that UKOG's expectations were highly unlikely to be the outcome.
The raise was 3.75billion shares last Friday.
There's theoretically £1,300,000 of the current level of loan remaining of the CLN, though it's very possible the loan note holders have been given more that haven't been RNS'd yet. I doubt they will convert all of that at today's vwap (approx 0.0172p) but if they did that's over 7.5 billion more shares - and there's meant to be £500,000 more loan handed over before 16 February.
Let's hope they deploy the somewhat forgetful wellsite geologist with the sensitive nose to calibrate the oil smell gauge just in case, like the swab test, they recover zero oil - though maybe they could resurrect for the third time the bottle of oi / water / de-emulsifier that so far has helped ramp the swab test in the Hoya, and then encouraged the first perforating of the Germik.
Sometimes the deception is in plain sight, other times it's just that they only RNS the most positive interpretation / opinion.
With Pinarova the most positive outcome stated by UKOG seems to be it will encourage them to look elsewhere for the oil, let's hope it's not that encouraging and they can perhaps realise that AME did unto them as they have done to shareholders -though if they had done any due diligence they surely knew it was a long shot, not transformational - and concentrate at least on getting their UK 'assets' advanced. Although my opinion on both HH and Loxley isn't positive at least then the last veils will have dropped and the reality of what UKOG has in terms of O&G 'assets' will be exposed and investors can decide if they want to go on the long journey to gas storage or get out.
'ignor the idiots who claim they can fortell the outcome of the drill. they are full of ****e.'
Strange how the ****e that 'the idiots' claim has been proved right so often - and how wrong you've proved to be. But then I don't suppose you'll be holding on to your newly minted shares until UKOG RNS the results of the Pinarova test.
Nobody can be certain of course, but expecting anything but something positive that leads to looking for where the oil comes from seems to be what UKOG were expecting in the September RNS:_
'With this in mind, should further testing be positive, consideration is being given to the acquisition of a small 3D seismic programme to identify a possible deeper oil pool, seepage/spill from which being the most likely primary source of both the seep and Pinarova oils.'
But even that is disingenuous as where the oil came from might be an active source migrating straight into the shallow section at the shothole and the not much deeper probably very 'tight' Germik, rather than a leaking deeper accumulation somewhere around the area. Even if there was a deeper accumulation it would probably be in the Mardin a fractured carbonate reservoir with rapid decline in E Sadak.
As for what they're quite possibly re-testing - the earlier perforating might have reached the formation and it was tight - the Germik (oil odour formation) was only considered for testing after the Pinarova target/s were found to be dry and they scrambled around to find a reason to keep the fantasy going so elected to test a non-reservoir layer where an oil smell was observed, by the UKOG geologist on site, but wasn't reported at the time, probably because they had decided it wasn't worth testing as they cased the well and drilled ahead.
Almost immediately in the Hoya they got oil shows (not just a smell) - and stopped to test - which failed.
As you mention PPP they've gone quiet after almost weekly updates in November about CT-1H production and no news about the progress of the workover of CT-4H which started in mid December.
As for this - 'and pin point portland and kimmeridge oil pools at hh with the more accurate seismic information accumulated.'
More likely remove the culmination contoured between seismic lines at HH, the target for HH-3 - just like the Basur-4 target that the Basur phase 2 seismic appears to have removed or at least reduced considerably.
Ocelot,
last night you posted:-
'There is a potential reversal of situation here: with so many shares in issue, any rise in the share price will quickly increase market cap to level where it becomes easier to finance the company's needs.'
Looking at the way they're able to issue a billion plus shares to the CLN holders without informing the market for months they might already have increased the mcap without anyone knowing (apart from UKOG, the CLN holders and any one they tell privately).
Cunning plan though, issue billions upon billions of shares so a rise of 0.001p is worth about £287,000 pity it trashed the share price to do it - and if the CLN holders have converted another billion or so shares we might hear about eventually (today's vwap under 0.018p) that's increased the value of the company by £177,500 at this evening's mid price - no flies on ocelot or SS.
Jeez ocelot,
The share price is less than 0.02p. There's shares worth over £100 each, or half a million UKOG shares - yes you can get more than a million UKOG shares for less than £200 - not all that long ago they would have cost £10,000 - @1p a share - though there were a lot fewer shares in issue.
Tor example 150 AZN shares cost a lot more than 75 million UKOG shares - not sure that UKOG regularly being the largest traded share means anything anymore - especially when there's holders of billions of shares eager to get rid of them, and in the case of the CLN holders ever more shares for their loan notes as the SP (and vwap) declines.
Ocelot,
Surely It's a very different question for true investors especially ones that presumably haven't sold a single share because the outlook is always so positive, such as yourself. Traders and unbelievers in the BS maybe can buy and hope that there's a P&D before the results of the Pinarova test, just like the swabbing test in April and that the holders of billions of shares don't hog the selling - or that the Supreme Court decision or one of the farm outs happens and it can be pumped before anyone enticed into buying realises nothing much will happen before H2 2024, or quite possibly 2025.
IG,
The downside risk is that not only are there nearly 4 billion placing shares from last Friday but also, depending on how truthful the June CLN RNS was, there's definitely £800,000 or probably £1,300,000 (rising to £1,800,000 in February) of loan to clear. At 0.02p (though Friday's vwap could be 10% lower) that could be a conversion of 4, 6.5, or 9 billion more shares - up to 50% more shares for cash they seem hell bent on spending in the hope of getting an allocation of government cash, probably from a new government and maybe the allocation won't be until 2025.
Near term PPP seem to have gone quiet about their wells after almost weekly updates in November - so how quickly they will be able to farm in to HH is an unknown, and they start by shooting 3D, so no well until H2 2024 at best ppresumably the PPP AGM voted in favour of being able to issue over 100 million shares - although they first need to replace about 60 million borrowed shares. Loxley seems to have no takers and Pinarova they're testing what's probably a tight zone that had an oil smell, the pre drill targets being dry. The most likely fairytale for the best outcome - some recovered oil - Is they'll keep flogging that dead horse.