Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
SRBS,
unfortunately finding 'some' oil is about all UKOG expect as well. Surely they would be a bit less subdued in their expections than we'll go looking for where the sample we get (positive testing) came from (more seismic).
'With this in mind, should further testing be positive, consideration is being given to the acquisition of a small 3D seismic programme to identify a possible deeper oil pool, seepage/spill from which being the most likely primary source of both the seep and Pinarova oils'
But even that is disingenuous as where it came from might be an active source migrating straight into the shallow section at the shothole and the not much deeper probably very 'tight' Germik, rather than a leaking deeper accumulationsomewhere around the area, probably in the Mardin that appears to be a rather poor fractured carbonate reservoir with rapid decline in E Sadak.
Fun and games about to commence - looking forward to the uber-ramping of the traders who appear on news, and disappear before results if they time it right.
Despite what they post their actions speak far louder than their claims of things like 'the sky's the limit' - when they bail out on take off.....
Ocelot,
when UKOG's 10% share from Horndean goes from 11 to 13bopd every little helps but it's not going to make any difference to UKOG - and September's figure was a drop from previous months.
As for the Portland storage project it appears to be similar in certain aspects to all UKOG's projects.
Find a project that wasn't commercially viable - in this case without government support.
Put a spin on it - in this case hydrogen
Then claim that this time it willl be successful - as in all previous UKOG ventures - in this case because the government 'supported' it (polite words about the project)
Then take years tofind out whether it really will work. meanwhile drawing a good salary regardless of success - in this case will there be government support to the business model and specifically the Portland gas storage project.
With Q4 2025 when the government hands out contracts - if an incoming administration (assuming a change) agrees with the business model - bearing in mind the various scandals over the current government awarding contracts.
Shls,
oh dear - swab test equipment - sounds like they're not hoping for anything much more than a sample, - the previous Pinarova swab test based on there being oil shows, not a smell, didn't recover any oil - and still the perforating guns aren't on site.
Pity they don't update on Horse Hill, things like decline curve, the June 2019 Kimmeridge report, HH-2z conversion rather than a daily state of a track in Turkey.
Trish,
they're not drilling. The well is drilled and cased. The idea is that the perforating gun will be lowered into the well and then 'perforate' the casing. What happens then is they find out if the original test in May was as good as valid, whether those perforations penetrated the casing or not, or they manage to get some sort of flow.
Not sure why sonmoon is posting about naturally occurrring helium being discovered whilst drilling - has nothing to do with salt caverns being leached which are then filled with gas But Sunmoon seems to be a serial account holder, this account being registered at the end of November....yet.....there's similarities in approach, interests, language, posters with a previous serial account holder - and it isn't Adrian.
'Sunmoon', consider that those who have been permanently positive about UKOG being serially proved wrong are far more likely to, as you put it, 'go mad' than those that have merely reported what they have researched which isn't 'positive'. They're certainly more likely to be posting desperately in an attempt to recover their losses if they believed what they posted.
It's certainly easier to post honest opinions than the sort of ramping rubbish that is clearly not believed by many of those posting it as they don't hang around for the glorious outcomes they claim will happen.
Shls,
The Supreme Court is on holiday until 11 January - and that's about Horse Hill - so some time after that, they publish a case list on their Web site the weekend before each week.
Loxley was decided in July and a leave to appeal to the High Court was refused and that was RNS'd by UKOG at 08:01 on 3 August after which you posted:-
'Shls3834 Premium Member
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 440
Price: 0.0545
No Opinion
RE: No change after that 3 Aug 2023 08:20
Yeah I’m really Surprised'
Which was presumably about the lack of a P&D on the Loxley decision 'news'?
UKOG have submitted in Dece ber another application for the extension to the planning permission for retention of the Broadford Bridge site which runs out in March 2024. They have extended it three times since the failed and expensive BB well but it might be rejected this time and UKOG will then have to shell out for site restoration - probably the only reason they keep asking to extend the permission, though they continue to claim work at HH will impact the decision to do further work at Broadford Bridge.
For the first time in this planning application UKOG cite the legal challenges at Loxley and Horse Hill as the excuse for not advancing any work at either site - though not mentioning that any further work at either site depends on getting someone else to pay for it.
BTW there have been plenty of trades - just a site glitch, a Y2K bug finally emerged?
ZYX,
It might be more accurate to say that the NSTA has insisted that the obligation 3D seismic needs to be shot as UKOG, and probably PPP, wouldn't be that interested in risking destroying a target with no seismic control by shooting more seismic rather than the opportunity to raise funds nd keeping the dream machine limping on during a rise on the hope a well would be successful. Basur-3 an example of drilling without good enough seismic control - yet prior to when Basur-3 was drilled AME suspended drilling at E Sadak to shoot more seismic because of the level of failed drills.
In Turkey it certainly looks like the Basur-4 closure disappeared when more seismic was shot hence the Pinarova fiasco hoping oil that found its way into a shothole over a kilometre away also found its way into a amplitude anomaly, but not the same as the nearer Kezer well where there was oil in the Hoya but only a 'cut' in water. When the Pinarova target/s were found to be dry they scrambled around to find a reason to test a non-reservoir layer where an oil smell was observed but wasn't reported at the time, probably because they knew it wasn't worth testing as they then cased the well and drilled ahead..
But, given the dodgy closure that's been contrived for Loxley, what's surprising is that the NSTA hasn't insisted that the Loxley seismic isn't acquired before the proposed well, not after as UKOG has planned. Maybe if UKOG do manage to get Loxley (apparently the largest undeveloped gas field in the UK according to everything's transformational SS) farmed out an incoming farminee will insist on shooting more seismic.
I do like the idea though that Q4 2025 'isn't that far away', firstly who would buy now for the Portland gas storage project which despite being worked on for 19 months has not been fleshed out in terms of timings and costs - and it isn't just a long time but also probably a change of government who will perhaps be a bit more careful with handing out cash to one and all.
shls,
'we believe we can recover between 5% and 15% of the oil in the ground, which by 2030 could mean that we produce 10%-to-30% of the uk’s oil demand from within the weald area.'
yet since then, which was the claim in 2016, we're more than half way to 2030 and current production from the kimmeridge in the weald is zero barrels of oil.
what mr sanderson surely knew, rather than 'believed', from the bgs weald report on the kimmeridge was that most of the oil that nutech calculated to be in the kimmeridge wasn't going anywhere and that the flow from a couple of the micrites at horse hill was likely to be anomalous and short lived.
certainly following broadford bridge-1 ukog would have been aware that those 'beliefs' were wrong, but has never set the record straight so that dl can continue to quote those bs oip figures.
since then there have been months of kimmeridge testing, with ukog releasing selected flow rates, and with that data had a kimmeridge report done in june 2019 that had 1.4mmbbls net oil to ukog (first mentioned as a footnote in the 16/04/21 2020 annual report, 21 months later) and no doubt loads of other analyses. did this report and internal analysis lead to the hh-2 well not being deepened to log the kimmeridge, hh-1 sidetrack not happening and hh-1 not being dual completed - and occasionally mentioned plans, but no action, to drill the kimmeridge.
ninetails, ss could hide behind he was quoting the bs analysis from nutech and that there was sp**** flow data in 2016. but surely more information other than contingent resources should have been released from the 2019 rps report that presumably contradicts the nutech analysis.
Wizard,
You keep to your half full philosophy- it has obviously worked so well over the past 6 years since 2017, when according to ocelot I got it so wrong prior to the Broadford Bridge drill that the Kimmeridge was not going to be as wonderful as many, including UKOG, claimed.
You posted 'It is the testing following the perforations that will show the potential of the site and any current flow rates and income.'
What in anything that UKOG has tweeted or RNS'd leads you to say that following the perforating 'will' show any 'current flow rates' and more importantly 'income'.
'Might' I could accept but testing a non-reservoir formation that had an oil smell whilst drilling that UKOG didn't mention until the well TD'd and the actual targets were dry is, on the balance of probabilities not going to 'flow' and UKOG are surely indicating that with this in the 22/09 RNS:-
'With this in mind, should further testing be positive, consideration is being given to the acquisition of a small 3D seismic programme to identify a possible deeper oil pool, seepage/spill from which being the most likely primary source of both the seep and Pinarova oils'
As for DL retweeting UKOG PR - he also reweeted the first tweet showing the oil recovered prior to drilling the Hoya section, because he was also 'duped' by UKOG by timing the tweet as if the oil was from the Hoya section they were going to swab test (that then failed to recover any oil) that did have 'oil shows', not just an oil,smell:-
David Lenigas@DavidLenigas Apr 21
Brilliant. This is amazing oil from @UKOGlistedonAIM #UKOG quick look see from their ~50m of oil shows in their new #Turkey #oil well. This looks like very light sweet #crude to me. Any oil company would be happy seeing this. Main target still to come deeper.@'
Wizard,
Even UKOG haven't claimed oil will flow at Pinarova even a 'positive' outcome appears to just lead to the hope there's an accumulation feeding whatever they find that they can locate - which, as the oil in the shotholes was described as an active seep, might mean it, and the shows, smell and oil returned to surface when the casing was inserted migrated from the source rock, not an accumulation.
As for the Horse Hill planning challenge. What will change in the near future assuming, as most do, that the challenge will fail? UKOG doesn't want / can't afford to drill either Loxley or any more wells at HH - and given the likelihood of water ingress from fractures at HH and both HH and Loxley having dodgy maps - although only at HH is it planned to acquire seismic before drilling - commercial success isn't guaranteed for both of these supposed appraiasal wells.
I suspect that the focus on the long term infrastructure project rather than their core business of O&G E&P is a reflection of how poor the O&G opportunities are - no surprise for a company scraping around to redrill prospects that have already failed. My expectation is that UKEn will be sold on at some point, perhaps with a pink trousered CEO to continue getting benefits he's become accustomed to.
Believing UKOG claims of oil flows, transformational potential or even UKOG's opinion of successful outcomes has so far not been a sensible investment strategy. Presumably traders who promote P&Ds agree despite their glowing endorsement of the projects - hence their short term (unless they get spiked, or misjudge when 'news' will arrive) attendance on this board.
eg 'It will fly to the sky ' or other such unjustified nonsense.
PPP are also quoting OIP and 2C resources for the Portland that was calculated for the June 2018 CPR ,prior to the ewr in 2018 and 2019, and prior to a new map produced after HH-2z proved the old map was wrong as the Portland in HH-2z was deeper, not shallower, than HH-1 - and the bounding fault's position changed so the Collendean Farm well was in the same block as HH-1 and 2z.
Given what has happened during HH-1 production and HH-2z testing how UKOG or PPP can continue to quote figures from the 2018 CPR.
As for the Kimmeridge, PPP continue to quote the ridiculous OIP figure of 8 billion bbls of oil within the whole vertical section across the 2 HH licences - which is clearly complete nonsense regarding any oil that even might be produced. Even UKOG has stopped mentioning figures produced by Nutech in 2015 and Xodus would not include any figures for the Kimmeridge in the CPR. However unbeknown to investors UKOG had a Kimmeridge HH report produced by RPS in June 2019 (during the ewt) that had 2C contingent resources for HH of 1.5mmbbls, . Despite this until the March 2021 Annual Report UKOG continued to quote in the final report in March 2020 the Nutech OIP figure. The RPS Report has never been mentioned by UKOG except as a footnote to the table of contingent resources. Were the contents of that report the reason HH-2 wasn't deepened through the Kimmeridge to obtain more data, that the proposed HH-1 horizontal sidetrack into the Kimmeridge didn't happen nor HH-1 dual completed in the Portland and Kimmeridge?
But what PPP fail to update is, for investors in PPP (and UKOG), more relevant. No update on the CT #1H well production in December, nor anything substantive about the #4H workover that's been underway for 20 days - yet it seems that well is flowing:-
'Our initial workovers at Chalk Talk 1H and Chalk Talk 4H have proved successful for Pennpetro and are now generating solid cashflow.'
For the farm-in to be funded by cashflow the question left hanging for both PPP and UKOG investors is 'how successful' - what are the flow rates now, and what the decline rate is likely to be in the future. PPP RNSd initial flow rates following the #1H workover and updated production during November almost weekly.
Trish,
can you point out where UKOG have been even slightly positive about the upcoming perforation and test of the Germik?
Not absolutely definite that the previous test was invalid, and what they consider 'success' seems to be encouragement togo looking for a deeper accumulation that may not be there, like the original primary target the Hoya amplitude anomaly.
Just looking at the last RNS the wording is strange - as if obtaining and shifting the guns around was UKOG's responsibility, otherwise why does scheduling involve UKOG liaising with AME, surely AME would just tell UKOG when it was going to happen:-
'The Company is now liaising with the operator AME to schedule a firm date for the resumption of testing operations.'
But maybe this does mean UKOG are paying for Pinarova, which is what was implied by this in Aladdin's Annual Report:-
'The only exception will be testing the Resan shallow accumulation. Not only will these wells be quick and cheap the costs are carried by our JV partners'
Mannnan.
'75,000,000 must be buy at 0,027'
Must? Why? More likely a 'favoured' seller with those pesky CLN shares.
SRBS, not sure your 'definitely' logic works - the trade immediately before was identified as a sell at 0.0266p, but the trade before that was at 0.028p (spread was 0.026 to 0.028p) - and now at 2:30 there's a 73,000,000 'sell'at 0.027 (spread 0.26p to 0.029p)
Ocelot,
it isn't difficult for the number of shares traded to be so high when UKOG has contrived to make, with the help of a CLN, the price of each share around a fourtieth of a penny, and there's a seller in the market.
More than half of the total was in 4 trades, a sure sign some or most of them are the seller, and total trades value about £125,000. If YA / Riverfort did shift a load oof shares shares today and go with the vwap from just over a week ago (0.0216p) they,ve made about 20% plus their 4.5% added to the loan.
Wiltshireman,
Not sure it isn't better to know what's likely rather than what is hoped for - especially when everything points towards failure in terms of what even UKOG expect commercially - success just encouragement to hunting down an oil pool that may not even be there.
Seing how much excitement there is about the upcoming perforating and testing I thought it worthwhile having a read through all the previous RNS to find out what UKOG expected the outcome to be of a test of a zone that had a strong oil odour whilst drilling that was so important they didn't mention it until weeks later after the main target, and a zone with oil shows were proved duds.
In the RNS a few mentions of the similarity of the oil to the shothole oil, though they seem to have forgotten they also sent off some E Sadak oil to test as well, but there was no mention of how good this test might be at all, the best I could find was this on 22 September:-
'With this in mind, should further testing be positive, consideration is being given to the acquisition of a small 3D seismic programme to identify a possible deeper oil pool, seepage/spill from which being the most likely primary source of both the seep and Pinarova oils.'
Sounds like 'success' will be to initiate looking for a deeper oil pool. But the Pinarova oil sample they got, which only came to surface when the casing was set after drilling through the Germik, has already been shown to be from the same source as the shothole oil - but that's different from where if might have leaked from, or even if it has leaked from another accumulation.
Unusual for there to be oil at surface for any length of time without suffering degradation which presumably is why it was referred to as an active seep with 41.7 API - though UKOG / AME have never mentionedan active surface seep - just oil in the shothole, and not as light as E Sadak 43 API oil.
But if as originally thought the shothole oil was 'evidence of an active light oil petroleum system in the central area' (from the 30 June 2022 RNS) then both pinarova and the shothole oil could be directly fed from the source rock, no need for a deeper accumulation happening to leak to both.
So what is this test about, do UKOG/AME really expect anything more than another sample, and why the emphasis on there being an accumulation feeding it?
Is it just keeping the dream going for a little longer? The delay in obtaining the guns a fortunate problem?
Ocelot,
Well George Lucan is no longer in charge and there's a vast gulf between being polite about another companies 'assets' and spending money on it. The loan they've got is about 75% to pay off previous (disastrous) loans / deals that saw the SP collapse when gas production should have benefitted pi. Unless they start another round of bad borrowing the remainder is needed to drill at Saltfleetby, not waste at Loxley. In fact the whole SFB saga is a lesson in how expensive it is and how not to fund a gas development - and they knew the gas was there.
If Loxley is so wonderful why hasn't any company farmed in since July 2022? Gas prices have been high and predicted to stay high, ocelot happy to claim valuations in the billions last year. Even if the High Court challenge put potential farminees off that was defeated in July this year - though no posters mentioned it might delay the farm out last year.
But it doesn't look like UKOG has the stomach to pay for drilling any more risky wells with HH-3 seemingly dependent on PPP farming in, and despite claiming they would go ahead with site preparation for Loxley this year, regardless of the farm in happening, dragging their heels on getting the planning conditions dealt with.
Probably cash from those who've got out with a profit from Angus hoping for another bit of luck. The 'MMs' having seen it all before, saw them coming with their pockets full of their gains and upped the ask.
Of course UKOG could put out another instalment in the perforating guns saga - but as for 'Big seller out (150m trade yesterday). MMs free to take the sp back up now.' - I think that most will realise who the 'big seller' is and that they aren't anywhere near 'out'.
They will probably want to drag the price down a bit further as I suspect the best recent vwap is from last week on Wednesday at about 0.0216p - that may be slightly out but at best there would be slim pickings from the sale price of 0.0215p,
There were also the 4 35,000,000 trades today - looking like 2 buys & 2 reversals by the share volume being negative for two of the trades - though on A***N they don't 'do' negatives - more shenanigans.
But it looks like the bid is being held down vs the ask - even with a £10,000 buy - so does someone have plenty of shares that still need shifting.
But you've pasted your bullying posts.
If anyone needs help it's someone who's obsessed with coming onto a board he's banned from day in day out to abuse, smear and lie about other posters.
'You bunch cowards couldnt fight yourselves out of a wet paper bag in the real world'
'nomlungu getting upset her weak little activist gob ****e online bully ninetails is getting some back lol!'
Is this reasonable language - it certainly demonstrates that what ninetails is posting is just run of the mill abuse by you.
As for bullying:-
'You all mouth. And your activist friends have dive in to help you as you are to week and stupid to do do so'
Bullying language and again assuming others do as you do - 'your activist friends'.
and whilst Ninetails rings true as an oil worker on an offshore installation you don't ring true pretending you're not Adrian - you just look more and more desperate.
Adrian,
just because you and your 'mates' got together to decide what would be posted about what was happening at Horse Hill not everyone acts in concert.
perhaps your anger at them when they broke ranks gave the game away.
'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
May 12, 2021
Replying to @davethedrill1
#ukog I can just see SS Rope a dopes Tony and Pete aka @WealdOilers
aka Mirasole/Pboo on LSE and Bigdaddy99pIan taking part in an open off. Thick as mince and love losing their hard earned by handing it over to Sando.'
but these different opinions certainly proves that these posters don't.
This board is for discussing UKOG and their activities / projects, and non-banned posters posts are still there to see how right / wrong they are. Whereas your BS is gone - and on twitter you can delete posts, but then:-
'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1
Jun 24
#UKOG Those perf guns can't be far off in Turkey. SP low. Time to load up.
Adrian'
can't be far off in Turkey, on June 24, nearly 6 moths ago.
Seem to remember ZYX saying it could be months when UKOG announced seeking 7" perforating guns.
You obviously have very low standards, or are that desperate you'll support anyone as long as they're 'positive' - a bit like ocelot who once upon a time seemeed a bit less desperate, but then he's been 'positive' regardless of the reality of UKOG's projects.
But you're 'mate' is a nasty piece of work. He knows he can post what he likes and can lie about and bully other posters who prefer not to have to set up new accounts daily or even more often to respond in kind.
This is my post from a recent reply to Adrian repeating parts of posts (of course now deleted) by Adrian:-
'Adrian 15 Dec 2023 23:09
Not surprised your 'X' campaign for re-instatement on LSE isn't going so well.
'I dont like youPingu. Seriously dont like you. Go fek yourself AH.
Clear enough bird brain? :)'
'Penguins.
I wouldnt give you the steam off my pxss let alone my trades.'
Nice, and a merry xmas to you.'
Adrian's comments came after he was claiming he'd made a buy of 0.021p last Thursday but was unable to say how many shares he'd bought when he boasted about buying at 0.021p last Thursday, 14/12 and then sold on Friday. He got very agitated, not surprising as during Thursday trading there were hardly any trades at 0.021p, and those that weren't at the bid (ie definite sells) were for just a few pounds.
I would be ashamed of being associated with, let alone defend, someone who posts and tweets this sort of bile just because he disagrees with my opinions of UKOG's projects.
Funnily enough, over the years, those opinions have been far closer to the outcomes than UKOG's predictions, and those that repeat their PR - though it's noticeable that for Pinarova they're coy about what the outcome might be - just a suggestion that a positive outcome might be encouragement to waste more money poking around in the Resan licence (RNS 22/9):-
'With this in mind, should further testing be positive, consideration is being given to the acquisition of a small 3D seismic programme to identify a possible deeper oil pool, seepage/spill from which being the most likely primary source of both the seep and Pinarova oils.'
To translate:- We haven't a clue where the oil in the shotholes came from, but we know it wasn't the Hoya amplitude anomaly even though we haven't mentioned that was dry, but we'll persevere anyway (not our money we're spending) and therefore keep pretending that the shothole oil must have come from somewhere around Pinarova, and hope no one asks whether the E Sadak oil is also similar.
Not surprised your 'X' campaign for re-instatement on LSE isn't going so well.
'I dont like youPingu. Seriously dont like you. Go fek yourself AH.
Clear enough bird brain? :)'
'Penguins.
I wouldnt give you the steam off my pxss let alone my trades.'
Nice, and a merry xmas to you.