Member Info for Pelle

Doesn’t make much sense for Opec start add supply if oil still in 40 and put a lid on further oil price increase.
Think they want 50-60 range within couple months

Lots of typo’s by these Goldmoan, should be 135 usd

Hello HMH,
I think it it’s highly likely some deal will come during the year.
I am bit against pure borrowing and do a cash deal and increase risks.
Don’t know if it’s even possible.
Guess there many variants of how a deal could be paid and AB is creative.
Magnus was great deal, only failure was that due to poor Kraken performance it costed another RI.

We will see

Hello E,
Yes 30 p should be easy with 60 oil.
Debt reduced during the way, and at 60 oil I get approx 300 mill extra FCF on a yearly level compared to pre corona.
The FCF margins roughly double compared to before.

I would say with 60+ for half year and January1921 can start make reservations for nice party place

Evening E,
Nice job report, they must have included all those people in demonstrations. Lol.

This looks very good now, few more bucks higher oil price and FCF should be around same as pre corona.

And it won’t stop here with the big 3 US/SA/Russia all desperate for higher price.

Have a nice weekend all!

Hello L7,
Nice fishing story:-)
Sad to hear about 5 miles range, crazy.
We had recommended range of 1-2h travel distance. Now they will remove it soon.

I agree it’s a lot about nature, this small river we go is like a fairytale and I specially like weather in May June.
One friend took me there 20 years ago and I got a 6-7kg salmon at end of that day.
Since then I been going there 1-2 times per year and it took 10 years to get second one:-). And now I got 2 in 2 weekends.
Going for a hat trick now.

Scotland must be a nature paradise.
Thinking about it could be nice go such place long weekend and fish.
Maybe after corona, now Swedish people banned in most countries. Lol

Hi L7, yeah let’s not waste a summer on enquest numbers:-)
Did you go fishing yet?
I was lucky last two weekends , 2 salmons in small river here.
Will try again this weekend:-)

Hello L7,
Maybe I made it to simple and now I fine tuned excel sheet.
You were asking about capex, up to April I think they spend 75 mill of the 120.
The capex must been high Q1 otherwise I don’t know where money went.
March FCF 18 mill
April FCF minus 15

Then I actually get 29,5 breakeven from May forward for additional FCF including the bonds.

Does it make any sense?
Not even sure AB and JS got it right:-)

Hello L7,

Let’s forget what happened in past:-) Jan-April . Debt is reduced to 1364.

Looking at future, this is my understanding.
25 oil will eat up the FCF we had in Q1.
And we end up 0 FCF full year + PIK bonds.

To make new debt reduction from 1364 mill , oil needs be above 33+3 PIK.

In the first post you made it sound like if oil at 40 in June, FCF will be 25 mill in June.

Hope I got it right and we have same understanding.
I am taking bit more relaxed view on this lately....

Hello L7
I think it’s misleading and prefer if you would use 33:-)
But I am Swedish minority group here:-)

Hello L7,
I thought 33 breakeven is to reduce debt further after April?

And 25 level rest of year FCF ends up 0 full year. With + in Q1 and small minus rest of year.

Hello Hitman,
What you mean with 45 cover all liabilities?
What’s the difference between 33 breakeven and 45?

The Swede needs 65 and dividend 2021:-)

They already have 280 mill usd in cash.
Up to AB if comfortable use some of it

https://mobile.twitter.com/MatsQviberg/status/1266259370808979461/photo/1

Not enquest, but might interest some.
Cairn is there

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_H_Lundin/status/1265626156642025472/photo/1

First evening I see more airplanes over my head.
4 airplanes London to China and Korea within an hour.

Lockdowns due to oil shortage next years!

L3, No, wish i was joking about AGM.
And all was over in 23 min including presentations.

Not traded more last week, Sweden was closed at AGM day.
My account full in + 39k shares compared to pre corona.
At the 25% spike AGM day I probably would have taken around 100-200k out.

But still also have another 300-400k more shares to buy back for family accounts, probably during next weeks , months

Magnus very roughly numbers and simplified.
Assuming BP kept Magnus and 60 opex they might got zero FCF out of it last couple of years.

Now they got up until today.
100 mill vendor loan 25% paid of.
Maybe 200 mill more up to autumn 2018.
100 mill cash for the 75%
100 mill FCF
So in the range of 500 mill.

Enq invested 100 mill.
Got those 100 mill back within 9 months something. Plus around 100 mill more.

Now counting assuming 40 oil and 18k.
FCF equal 160 mill per year.
It will be split approx 50/50 because Enq still pay back 20 mill/year second vendor loan.

Very nice deal for both.