Member Info for Pelle

Art Berman
@aeberman12
·
20h
US production can only decrease because rig count is 1/3 of what is required to maintain 11 mmb/d EIA forecast for 2020-2022.

Increase from 10 mmb/d just reactivating shut-ins. This may continue + completing a few DUCs but overall is a path to nowhere except down.

KO

Where you see its going up?
To me it look looks hard to do 11mmb/d H2 and even more difficult 2021
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

Art Berman
@aeberman12
·
9 sep.
EIA expects U.S. oil output to average 11 mmb/d in 2H 2020 and 11.1 mmb/d in 2021.
2021 forecast seems unrealistic based on rig count.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12

Hello,
I have opex + capex
Q1 100+65
Q2 75+35
Q3 81+10,5
Q4 81+10,5

So breakeven heading towards the 27 for next year.

Breakeven is excluding hedges

Some inputs for H2.
Q1 breakeven must have been around close to 45 so to make 33 full year my model breaks even at 29 for H2.
50% production H2 hedge at 36.
Will make it hard to get much more then 40 unless prices really spikes.

With 60k and 40 oil I get 92 mill FCF + Petronas + PIK bonds

Hello L7, yes now they cut under the gun.
I think 220-240m /year during last two years could have been reduced slightly

Hello L7
Thanks for keeping my dividend in mind and 20m.
But I think they screw up with the hedging last two years and should have keept capex bit lower also.
The safest way would have been hedge as much as possible at good oil price levels.
Specially at the events like during Iran sanctions run up and bombing of Saudi oil plants.
If they had choosen the safest way, debt would be below 500m end this year.
Better safe then sorry for long term holders here.
My hope is that AB is at his best during low oil prices and comes out stronger.
Can they get any better bid on EP? Highest I heard is 74,99 GBP from Therapist.
Can they sell/merge/deal with the 3b tax free position?

Share price target increase 10 times!!!

ENQUEST PLC ENQ.L : RBC RAISES TARGET PRICE TO 10P FROM 1P

Think AB personally should buy EP for 200m + to make up for the casino losses. Lol

Thanks Jan,
Yeah, it makes sense.
This line in the sand, what breakeven does it have to add back NAV? Anyone?

The negative Equity, is it a big problem?
Will it restore itself over next months given these oil prices?

Wake up AB, time to shine

If AB just show he is alive and not drawn bust at the Asian day to day casino we should see 15p.
Any good talks about EP or Bressay plans we might hit the jackpot!
Good luck all

Good morning Therapist

About hedging, " the good, the bad and the ugly"
Lets put it simple and use a scale 1-10 and 1 equal 1 month hedge 50% volume.
Hedges only have big effects when oil prices makes a big swing up or or down.
Normally Enq hedge 5-6 months and 50% volume. So thats around 5 on the scale "normal".
Early this year it was possible maintain hedging at 55-65 usd for a longer horizon.
When oil prices went down in March, Enq only had 1-2 months hedge horizon.
Some rough calculations compared if they maintained normal hedge.
Volume 2m/month and price difference 20 usd.
50% Volume = 1m/month x 4,5 month x 20 = 90m lost oppertunity compared to normal hedging.
If they did good or excelent the oppertunity potential is 90-180m on the scale 6-10.
The hedging early this year I give a rating 1 or 2.

Similar event winter 2018/19.

Now lets get back to our prayers for higher oil prices:-)

I get debt around 1350m end June and if they got 50m in June from Malaysia then this come additional.
I also see that breakeven after summer heading towards 27 usd.
So at 60k at this time we should make around 1m/day FCF.
I think report will be a relief to market.
Today I spiced up my holding here.

Lets hope AB talks about the pot of gold for 2022 on Thursday.

I think RI will be avoided as far as it goes.
That’s my take from the last two RI.

And now Enq is not stressed with amortisations.
Within 1-2 years with bit normalisation in oil prices they will be almost over capitalised

Hello L7 and Squif,
Agree debt/EBITDA should come in around 2 for the full year 2020.
Playing with some numbers for 2022/22 with 57/55k production and 120m capex.
Oil price 52,5 debt/EBITDA should trend towards 1 in 2021.
Oil average 60 next 2 years and its close to debt free.
I assume they want to balance the debt/EBITDA in the very low range on 1-2, let’s say 1,25.
I get EBITDA around 900m 2022.
Then there is about 1b free cash in 2022 to be allocated to Bressey and dividend in 2022 and still keeping ratio low at 1,25.

Future looks good to me

Strange

Yeah, This mystic guy must have deep pockets. Judging by the volume

Think the racegoers actually are at stock market since corona started.
People work from home and bored.
One small company after the other race 100-1000% over few months.
Before lunch today sold 17,5k Enq and bought a share that was up 40% for the day and sold it after lunch and got 2k extra Enq.
It helped me survive the boredom here today. Lol