Member Info for Pelle

Jan, old common sense will do better then trying to be intellectual

Hello Jan,
I would say
55 oil = 20-25p
65 oil = 30-50p

But at current oil prices as a company it goes slightly backwards even if reducing debt.

How much supply will world loose next 6-12 months if oil continue below 60?
Another 5-10%?
US and Canada already lost around 20%.
Enquest will loose 15% over the 2 years?

US inventory already going down a lot and will continue do it.

I would say sometime during next 6 months oil price will start climb and it might continue climb for several years.

If pandemi over next summer we might see travel booming and infrastructure projects in world that will take consumption well above 100M/day

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/COVID-Kills-Another-Oil-Rally.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Volvi Trucks report today

"At the end of Q3, the utilization rate of the truck fleets in the larger markets was back at roughly the same level as a year earlier. The increased transport activity is positive for customers' profitability and many customers have returned to previously planned replacement cycles," Volvo reports.

Post yday 17:04

https://www.avanza.se/placera/forum/forum/enquest.html#7478402

Lol Jan:-)
Full herd for me is 100%
Stockholm already reached around 15-20% that had it or have it in spring.
And now spreading again.
So they might reach closer to 50% in winter and then it will slow down

Hello Jan,
Think they talked more like around 50% for herd immunity in Sweden.
But I agree with you, vaccines might arrive to late to put breaks on spreading virus.
Vaccines will bring back people to airplanes and be a big physiological effect on stock markets and consumer behaviour.

I take Itsa post as a buy signal

Hello Jan,
I see your point but we can’t rule out the risk completely.
And there is also the negative equity.

Thanks L3 and thanks Chilting for posting second link.

L3, what do think oil price can go to highest in Q4? 50 a fair bet?
And average next year 55?

I currently only hold 35% here and the other % in two other oil companies.

The only fear I have is if AB makes a deal and asking shareholders for another 50-100m. I need some money on sideline.
What’s the likelihood of this event?

Thanks L3
What does it say?

Soon people need to sit at home because no inventory or production enough.
Just saying what I see

https://mobile.twitter.com/staunovo/status/1311318782099574796?s=19

https://mobile.twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1310955190883844098/photo/1

So US production estimated to be in free fall in spring

Hello L7,
Thanks for BP link, that’s a lot numbers.
It looks like it’s very small changes in Nordic countries even if they the last years push for environment friendly car with 5-10k subsidy from government.
I also had one thought, this country oil consumption statistic.
I would assume if you buy a plastic thing manufactured in China. That consumption ends up in China?

Yday I spend on the pub, and I learned something new from guy who work in power plant. We use district heating here and they want to be fossil free 2025.
Currently they use gas,garbage,oil and will switch more to wood pellets over next years.
And the long term experiment they working on now is drilling couple 8000m holes and make fracking between them.
And then circulate water down there for heating. He said this drilling just recently become technical possible.
And is now being tested in Finland and Sweden.

https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/07/12/norways-oil-consumption-rises-despite-42-electric-vehicle-share/amp/

Hello L7,
My point was that even such a EV penetration as Norway.
The effect on total oil consumption is small.
And rest of the world have no chance follow Norway

https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.forbes.com/v/s/www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/07/12/norways-oil-consumption-rises-despite-42-electric-vehicle-share/amp/%3famp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%253D#ampf=

https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/205807/diesel-sales-down-95-in-norway-as-evs-gain-momentum/

Hello L7,
Good to hear you get out of cabin sometimes:-)
I am going to pub now so I will try come back to you tomorrow.
You can google on Norway EV cars oil consumption. Something like that.
There was an article 1-2 years ago.
Wish you all nice weekend

L7, think you got cabin fever:-)
Even if they would achieve turn around the trend of fossil fuel demand increase 1% per year to a decrease for let’s say 1%.
Supply can easy loose more then this.
SEB estimated demand in 2022 will be about 1,3% higher then 2019.
So trend is not broken in my view.
I also read somewhere that during these 3 years, world population grown 250m.

Oil is spinning most things in world and not easy replace even if countries like ours have goal to replace it by 2050.
They don’t have a solution.
Not even Norway managed decrease oil demand with a Tesla in every house.
Here in south Sweden it’s electric shortage so this summer they had to re-start oil power plant.

I think all kind of energy and resources will be needed in future to keep up with demand and it will be tight.
Unless the plan is to sit home and grow your own vegetables:-)

Art Berman posted this link the other day.
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/06/20190624-uk.html

It was about SNG share so it doesn’t count.
But I guess someone will fine me if I start terrorise that forum too. Lol

I see it doesn’t pay dividend. Lol.
250m Mcap is not so much.
Have anyone made some calculations on sales and profits if they get approval?

Hello GKB,
So you believe strongly in this SNG share?
And that better treatments soon will lift oil prices even?
Let’s hope we can see light in tunnel next months with better treatments and closer to vaccines.