Member Info for Pelle

Just buy some Sputnik vaccine on darknet:-)

Russia- black box
I would suggest relocate GKB from Middle East to Russia during winter for some proper research.
No reports anyway from Middle East.
Time to pack your bags and don’t confuse them with your nickname.
Bon voyage

Hello HMH,
End next year I can imagine Opec + needs pump fully what they can basically.
Then their “flip switch” is gone.
Or?

What’s your view on russia abilities to come back to production pre- corona?
Did they slow down the biggest field and can easy increase again?
Or did they permanently close the oldest fields.
Before they always said they can’t decrease production because it will freeze and damaged in winter.

Hello Tarmak,
I agree with you everything pointing towards increasing oil prices next year.
But we can never be 100% sure about it.
Hedge give safety for future and enquest will do good at 50 for Q1.
I rather would put something in for Q1 and see oil price go to 70 in Q1.
Then the other way, no hedge and oil go to 30.

Opinions on these boards variate as some are long term holders and some Traders.
Guess size of holding also influence the opinion.

60-70 oil I very much doubt will trigger any drill,baby,drill in world.
Companies will prioritize debt and dividend firstly at those levels.
Looking at US production they manage increase 5,5 m barrels in 4 years from 2016.
Art Berman predict big declines in production next 6 months. We will see.
So first they need stop the declines and it wont be easy start increase 1m/year again.
What about Russia? Can they return production to pre-corona levels?

His father is Adolf Lundin so he grow up with oil business.
I think we all will be surprised how high oil can average next years.

Ian H Lundin
@Ian_H_Lundin
·
11 dec.
The price of Brent oil closed above 50 USD/bbl yesterday, which was the first time since the wave of lockdowns in March. Demand is now coming back and vaccine hopes are playing in. Many years of under-investments in the sector will lead to the price going higher in 2021 & beyond.

Agree with Consistency.
And hedge bit more when oil price consider high and less when consider low.
During last years Enq maintained hedges 1-6 months and approx 50% volume.
50% Q1 hedge looks like a good bet given situation

Thanks L7,
My files run on months so splitting out these posts correctly helps.
I now see a possible FCF 170m Nov-March at current oil price.

Magnus/BP I have deducted since start.
Even the 100m vendor loan that comes 20m/year. Split first month each quarter.

I am also happy looking forward.
But backwards there some serious issues for a company having a hedging strategy.
Q1 this year I estimate EBITDA 235m
Q2-3 I get around 50m per quarter.
That’s completely unacceptable for company with hedge strategies to mitigate business to be in such free fall after 1-2 month.
Q4 EBITDA increases to around 150m.

Let’s hope for couple a really good years now

Hello L7
Ok, does the larger one also come twice per year so April/Oct?

So L7 using AB numbers and get 63m FCF Nov-Dec. I agree, AB always careful with guidance and now even have a tailwind if oil price increase. The statement was done end Nov so not much guessing.
I get 75m in my numbers.
Debt/EBITDA ends at around 2,7.

Looking ahead I used
2021 55k oil 57,5
2022 50k oil 65

2021 end debt 900m.
Debt/EBITDA 1.1
2022 end debt 420m
Debt/EBITDA 0.5

SP really started increase last winter when debt/EBITDA went below 1.5.
We will back in this shape by mid summer
with oil 52,5 H1.
I think oil will do much better then this.

Enquest future looks very good even with modest oil price assumption.

Thanks:-)

Hello L7,
Is it correct that Bonds pik or payment take place in Aug and feb?

Sorry, I open eyes and see now:-)

Why they delete posts today?

Hello HMH,
Lurking?? You mean golfing right? Lol.
It’s difficult get grip around all crazy data at moment. South Korea export up 25%.

Container-Ship shortage from China.
I am facing the problem each day.
Whatever the increase or shortage is, pushing goods volume from sea to air will burn a lot more oil next 6-12 months.

Can only agree with you, this pandemi low oil prices was the nail in the coffin for future energy crisis

Hello HMH,
Nice see you again.
The shipping problem is huge already and growing and will only get worse because you want ship double last 2 months before Chinese New Year close down.
But the problem is more related to getting empty containers.
Trains full also.
Imagine massive increase of airfreight

They should hedge 50% prod Q1 now if not already done.
I would not blame them if oil goes to 60.
Then they can extend horizon 4-6 month hedge.

Its even more cheaper then ever today. Lol

South Korea's exports increased by 26.9 percent in the first 10 days of December, compared with the same period the year before. Imports increased by 7.9 percent.
News agency Direkt

Published: December 11, 2020, 5:50 AM
It reports international media.

South Korea is the world's sixth largest exporting country and the country in the world that publishes trade statistics only every month, which is why the statistics are seen as an early indication of world trade.