Member Info for Pelle

Sweden will bring it up tomorrow if oil holds 54.
There been some discussions on börssnack di forum also

Not sure you manage 13p without the vikings that have a day of tomorrow.
GL tomorrow

Hello Kamrat,
Unfortunately it’s all in my head:-)
The 100m we raised in cash was for the cash part to BP, but Enq got those back over the following 9 months.
The 300m I think must be from the 25% deal but those are paid back already.

What remains is the new 100m vendor loan from the 75% deal.
This should be paid over 5 years.
And now it’s gone 2 years.
So should be around 60m left.

And then they split cash flow on the 75%.

That’s how I remember it

GKB- the bridge is closed so no contact with Denmark

Watch out GKB, Vikings coming for the last resources. Specially if you don’t value them

Laidback, no, relax

Hello Kamrat nice:-)
Vendor loan is 20m per year + couple m interest.
Cashflow share is 37,5%.
All in all I got around 120m at these oil prices.

Let’s hope they can make another Magnus deal.

Another easier way to calculate what will be available for RCF.
prod 52k= 19m barrels
Oil price: 53
Breakeven:27

Cashflow total 2021: (53-27)x19=494m
(Magnus BP) = 120m less for Enq
Oz: will allocate approx 60m
Total available for RCF: 494-120-60= 314 full year 2021.
9 months = 314x0,75= 235m.

I estimate RCF to have closed at 350 m 1 jan 2021.
So with 53 oil we missing (350-235)= 115m.
In case needed it should be easy for Enquest close this gap with cash on hand or forward sell some oil.
Remember they forward sold Malaysia oil few years ago around 18 months equal 90m cash.
So with Kraken it will be non issue do the same for just short period if needed.

Repeating same calculations I get oil price need average 63 to close RCF without touching anything else during the 9 months.

Thanks HMH,
True and I share your view.
Probably it’s around 1 year away I will free up cash. And a lot will happen this year in world. I do like buy in sector crisis or if quality companies having a crisis.

Hello HMH,
Hope everything fine with you and that we finally get some good oil years.

What is your opinion on banks? 10% divi.

I will look into extend my portfolio over next years.

Dodger, How did you calculate in 8 min they can only pay half within 10 months?
Dec-sept

Primetime, I also hope for 60 in the next months. It will make L3 sweat at bit. Lol.
It’s easy take a positive view, corona will end etc.
But there a lot what if...

Primetime, 50% at 50 oil Q1 can be a safety mitigation to start with.
Unless your 100% sure oil will be above 50 in Q1

Lol Romaron,
I knew you would compare with TD:-)
Only heard what people write here and the situation PMO came to.
Think his shareholding was minimal also if I am not mistaken. And he was fired.
Don’t compare with an outlier.

Talking football...
First 2 penalty kicks went outside goal.
It looks like we now got a third and last.
Aim for middle of the goal and hope that it doesn’t come a storm wind:-)

Lol L3, think you need be more specific about location and I might get it in spring.
Predatory to prey “spot on”, I started thinking about consequences... and the Serie Trust on Netflix that I can recommend everyone.
About oil family Getty.

Romaron,
OZ hedge at 50 2020, was a OZ decision (better safe then sorry hedge)
AB critized it little early 2020 " comment they wanted it that way"
During rest of 2020 he kind of take the credit for it as he includes it in Enq hedge position.
Anyway its so small part and I dont have problem with "better safe then sorry"

The 30 hedge this year, I also dont have a problem with. It was necessary as they enter the pandemic without hedge.

If you really want to understand where the problem appeared, you need go back to 2018 and zoom in at end 2018/early 2019. Enq was sitting with hedge below market price H2 2018 when oil went above 80. Its fine because they could not know oil would go up that much.
Normally Enq roll 6 months hedge 50% volume.
The neutral decision end 2018 would be to continue hedge 50% for H1 2019 at 80.
Its only when you change the horizon or volume on the rolling hedge you really make a big diffrerence.
Enquest choosen to end hedge program, assuming betting on that oil will go 100.
But instead all price fell of a cliff.

Basically you have a copy of same event January 2020.
Oil price increase and Enq ends / reduce hedging.

( both these times forum/shareholders have been over moon screeming for hedge) But Enq didnt do anything

To summarize Enq would be better of last years just rolling 6 month hedge 50% continously.
Or dont hedge at all.
The actice decision twice to draw down hedge have come at worst ever timing.

These mistakes/active decisions have resulted in lost profits of hundreds of millions, probably around 300-400m.
If we add interest rate also its even worse.
So its not small potato decisions

Now the situation in oil market is probabaly completely different, so I would assume Enq will maintain 3 months only "if any" and gamble on rising oil prices.

Good morning Romaron,
Another cloudy and rainy morning in south Sweden, start to get desperate for some sun and dreaming back to Cervinia skiing:-) If we ever hits the jackpot here I could imagine buying some small hotel in the Alps and post less here.
About Spirit, I checked some but will not spend too much time on as we have no clue.
Seems like it could be a nice partner and maybe they discussing with " third partner" also like exxon fields to be included in the deal, no idea.. but could be the reason it takes time.
Hitmans post ties in very well with what we discussing, AB-hedging-shareholder value.
Hitman calculated what money will be left for shareholders after paying down debt and it makes a huge difference 50 or 60 oil. Thats why AB could never go wrong hedging 2 years ago at 75-80 oil and 1 year ago at 65-70.
Those hedging would add a lot shareholder value, and if oil would continue up to 90-100 we could have lost the maximum profit shorterm jackpot but still hitting longterm jackpot with additional hedging at 90-100 oil.
Your talking about restraints, I hope they dont have restraints for hedging at high oil prices.
I dont blame AB for hedging low last 6 months, it was completely necessary for survival, restrictions maybe and no-one had a clue for how long and low oil prices would be.
To summarize, AB been very good last years make Enquest survive, less good at creating shareholder value.
Ofcourse he done good things also, Magnus and cutting cost. But without it we would not even exist.
Sorry but I dont see him exceptional better then other CEO's, maybe slightly below average.
I am sticking around here just because the upside is always biggest in Enquest with increased oil prices specially from these levels of shareprice.

Have a nice weekend

It’s too small to make any big impact

So they say...

So the day US,Canada,Russia lost roughly 4m production equal the amount that was spare capacity before.

I assume loss is more counting all smaller countries.
And they won’t start drilling until oil prices stabilise above 70 or something.