Member Info for Pelle

Hello HMH,
Then there is no reason for Enq to rush and complete the deal. As now we don’t pay any interest on the purchase sum as is.

Agree?

Hello

I get your idea but sorry to break your heart, I dont see the gain.
Because with your example to maintain your % in the company you need to have 125k shares after RI but you only got 105k.
You can do it the other way around, keep the shares and sell the RI rights and buy new shares and you end up with same amount as you described theoretical.
Both ways your diluted.
Ofcourse this is better then just dont care at all and through away the RI rights and not sell them or use them. Then you still have your 100k shares only. And AB will mop up the RI rights that people didnt use I think.
Its a zero sum game.

Some comfort is that, you hold a less % but in a stronger company that others put in some extra money in.

Now this time is different, open offer instead of RI.
So you cant trade the open offer allocation you get.
If its discounted shares you ofcourse want to have the money for it.
Its about 1/6 of your curent holding value you have today you need prepare.

So without cash on sideline you can do following

1. You sell 1/6 of your shares now. ( could be good is oil price crash and SP is less in 6 months)
2. You wait and oil price and SP increase, Maybe you only need sell 1/10 of your shares to cover your deal.

Now I sold about 1/12 of my shares and put in other oil company meanwhile.
So I still need find more money or sell more shares later hopefully at higher price.
I get more investment money from forest in about 1 year.
So I am also thinking about buying a "mini Long" in Enq , then I can lets say maintain my position in Enq with less money and push in the difference Jan 2022.

We will see, I am optimistic about oil price and hopefully AB realise one day there shareholders also. Lol

Hi Jan

Yes, more shares then original holding but less % in the company then original.
Otherwise please explain again how you managed to keep your % of the company without putting in any new money.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/10/21/canada-s-suncor-considers-selling-north-sea-oil-and-gas-fields

Hello Jan

Did you end up with fewer shares in total?
Vs if you keept all your shares + taking up the RI as suggested.

Think there is no free lunch.
It can happen but then something is very misspriced.
And doing these things with a big holding is not that easy.
I have now sold about 10% and put it in other oil shares to still have them in the game.

Now I will wait and see what happens

Hello Romaron,

Last update Enq was confident pay it down and if anything small left they could extend it or pre-sell some oil.
Since then situation improved a lot.

The clean up I like.
Your probaly right about cancel the deal now would get the bonds shafted as they promissed the PIK.

Still think AB should take out these banker boys for a dinner in summer and discuss the 50m because oil price gone up 50%:-)

Probably eco friendly:-)
Its electric shortage here in south and freezing cold.
So oil power plant is fired up to support.
They run it last summer also due to shortage and price.

Right now I would be happy if Apple included the electric plug in the iphone 12 box.
Only a cable and buy plug separate??

Hi Romaron,

But you said: Hi Elitesky - so you want to jeopardise our finances and not increase reserves or production. Every day 30 September gets closer. What's your alternative?

So it was never an alternative to just pay it down or refinance part of it with existing resources?

And if we cancel this deal now we in big problem?

I am not saying I am against it but again its very bad presented and bad also ask for more money from shareholders

Romaron, a week ago you told us stop torture RCF payment probability.
Its was no problem at all

Its Retail investors only.

Squif, do you want them back out of the deal?

Mcap today around 300m and they need 50. So it’s 1/6 of current holding value.
If you have shares for 30k usd you need put in 5k usd. Regardless of SP go up or down it’s still 5k usd.
That’s my understanding

KO, Yeah maybe around 5 years for me to.
There reasons why we 1-2 years behind on time line.
We on same mental journey.
I always try keep hope but now beyond

https://www.pinterest.co.kr/pin/783696772632239041/

When I woke up this morning I was also thinking about strategy changes and I read your lasts posts L7 and Hitman.
Good points
Its about consequences
1. Lack of hedging when oil price been high.
2. Kind of strategy change... AB you need find a field around 6-12k with low opex.
3. Price gets bit higher as AB needs knock on the door. (but deal is already in profit as oil is 60)
4. Bank want 50m

Now last 2 months the game changed completely with 60 oil and hedge was good balance risk/reward.
Its approx 50% volume during Jan-April with ceiling at curent price .
Continue slowly build on this.

Outcome if oil prices continue at these levels or better.

1. Continue reduce debt fast, hedging a long the way in steps to add security.
They talk to bank and they agree waive the open offer and pay them the fee (10m) as Hitman suggest.

2. Another outcome is if AB cant get around number 1.
AB would like increase SP during spring, to minimize the open offer problem.
He will indicate given oil price 60 usd we will pay a quarterly divi of 25m from 2022 as start.
This is peanuts, debt / EBITDA will be around 1 and FCF 500m

What ever outcome is, as I see it shareholders will be very very rewarded with a horizon of 1-2 years . IF oil price stay 60+

Lol Romaron. See the old man was creative.
Guess we survice this too if we survived corona

Romaron, AB needs to be more creative. Put his house and car in.
Just anything better...lol
Not more then fair if you oversleep hedging twice.

Hello Hitman
You might be bit optimistic with 1095:-)
If they now take up a new RBL loan at 700 and replace, RCF,PIK,Magnus etc.
All restriction gone?
GKB wont be happy about it 2022

PRDaynes
Thats how I understand it also and Hitman confirmed it. Start date 1 jan 21.
So if transaction is 325 and completion date 1 July you can take of 50m price + 50 from open offer.
So debt increase 1 July 225m
I model it oil average 62 for this year.
Start debt 1280 end year debt 1100m
EBITDA will also increase due to deal to around 1b
So you end the year as a very strong company.

And next year 65 oil 60k production Capex 200m still give a FCF 500m+

Just sad they need to ask small money every time

Thanks Hitman,
So the 325m price tag will be reduced with approx 50m from FCF in past.

Seems it’s always same story here.
Now I just need figure out how to get 50m.
House price went up but not sure it’s 50m . Lol.

O well, just hope for couple good oil years