Member Info for Pelle

Lol Romaron,
Vikings are generous nowadays, how’s your free Spotify?

I made some calculations for next 2 years.
Based on that they need hedge 60/40% with hedge min 60 and max 70 oil price.
Production 55k minus 6k BP = 18m year.
Breakeven 30.

Oil average 50 = 900 m FCF
Oil average 60 = 1080 m FCF
Oil average 70 = 1440 m FCF
Oil average 80 = 1620 m FCF
Oil average 90 = 1800 m FCF

I have net debt around 1200 after GE complete.
So even with as low oil price as 50 we will reduce 75% of the debt if they like.
This will be a FCF machine!

Total numbers of cases in China 100k I assume is bit below the village I live in. Lol

Closed almost day high in Sweden

BananaJoe, conclusion here earlier was that it’s not the case

The tax benefits of closing GE asap is around 250k usd per day. Equal increased FCF also

Opec can fine tune decision.

SP looks very strong given the 7-8 usd oil lost.
Hope all hedging been done.
Think we can get GE deal complete RNS any day.
Seems strange need wait 2-3 months after OO and and new RBL is in place when they had half year to prepare.

Hello Romaron,
Fully agree this will become reliable and predictable in future.

And about new field development, think it will be rare as long as prices of buying an existing producing field is low.

Did you read my article from Swedish FT the other day?
Think you like it

Hello Romaron,
We having a small Enq shareholder meet-up in south France, my friend will arrive tonight.
I convinced him Enq is the best oil share in Sweden.
Think he got in at around 15p.

Not sure I fully understand the RNS and your post.
Helikon passed 3% holding?

I agree backward looking debt / EBITDA is kind of useless in this big swing ongoing.
Looking forward in 6-12 months the ratio will be completely different.
Not sure how you make conclusion about dividend?
But my hope is 9-12 months from now

Regarding these production figures.
Think our consensus H1 is 46k excluding GE.
What’s GE H1?
We been told GE 10k

I think we will see H2 improvements Magnus, Malaysia and GE to reach 59k including GE.
Therapist can probably break it down better with the fresh OGA numbers

Would be very nice have 60k+ H2 and start 2022

Moody's expects the acquisition of Golden Eagle to close by the end of the third quarter of this year leading to a full year pro-forma production of 59kboepd.

Yes, now around 50% hedge with max 72 oil if I remember correctly. So realised price today around 73,5.

Good morning,

What other elements do the include on top of the debt?
730m x 3 = 2,2b
I have net debt end this year around 1b
So roughly 1,2b more they include as leverage

Moody's Adjusted EBITDA of $730 million and a Free Cash Flow of around $400 million in 2021

The cash flow generated will be primarily used to repay drawings under the RBL and to fund the Golden Eagle acquisition, leading to an estimated Moody's-adjusted gross leverage of around 3.0x at year-end 2021.

L3, In Sweden we would call H2 “ plattan i mattan”

L3,

To me this clearly says excluding GE.

In 2021, Moody's expects EnQuest's production to decline to around 49 kboepd (excluding the production from the Golden Eagle fields), from 59 kboepd in 2020, as several mature assets ceased production

Morning Therapist,
I see 49k full year, if H1 was 46k H2 should be 52k.
Yes, 55 oil and I would assume the broker upgrades also assume around 60 oil.
Hedge Hedge and stop assuming! Lol

https://m.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-EnQuests-rating-to-B3-and-high-yield-notes--PR_451518

So, AB did take part in the placing also.
If he only acted according to OO he would get 10m shares more. But now 27m more.

Part 3

One fine day, maybe we will solve that challenge as well. I hope so. But it takes time. And while we proudly ride around in a Tesla and refuse to take responsibility for the oil companies, Vladimir Putin laughs all the way to the bank.

The environmental debate is too important to be left to the masters of simple solutions.

What
Everyone hates oil and oil companies. But with electrification, we need more oil.
Why
To an excessive extent, we refuel the electric car with oil.
Conclusion
It is high time to prepare for an even higher oil price if we refuse to take responsibility for development. Everything green is not nice. We must beware of double standards.

Part 2

The idea is good and one can at first glance think that the market here is forcing new energy solutions and also makes it more difficult for oil companies to exist, which puts further pressure on them to do otherwise, unclear what given the craving for the product they deliver .

Our pension funds have reformulated their investment rules so as not to get oil on their hands. The AP funds in Sweden, which manage close to SEK 1,500 billion, may not have a single oil share in the portfolio. The same applies to many other major managers. This is a global megatrend.

What happens then is that oil companies get more expensive financing and new companies shine with their absence. And instead of "good" actors, such as the Swedish pension managers, taking responsibility for the oil we still consume, it will be up to Vladimir Putin and some Arab sheiks to reap the benefits of our behavior and anxiety.

With reduced investments in new and less energy-intensive technology for extracting oil, prices are expected to continue to rise, to the benefit of the oligarchs. And while we sell oil stocks to those who are not interested in the climate, we can think about what benefit we do. It's called double standards.

A good friend described the development as going from "green washing" to "green wishing". Just like that. But in any case, let us prepare for the fact that the oil price will continue to rise in the long term when the electric car is in practice filled with oil.

Very long and interesting article Swedish FT.
It’s only for subscription so I will pick some parts

We buy an electric car - and Putin laughs all the way to the bank

The oil price will rise when no one wants to own an oil company, at the same time as everyone - companies and private individuals - must wash themselves green. And there is nothing wrong with demand when we burn oil to refuel the electric car.

We can wash ourselves green by using electric gadgets, but we must not fool ourselves into thinking that we will be less dependent on oil. In fact, it is just the opposite. Our consumption of oil is rising, both in the industrial companies in Södertälje and among hipsters on Södermalm.

The ESG movement has many faces, but what unites all activists is the hatred of oil. That product goes away in all contexts - except when it comes to our consumption of course.

For the banks, it is important to appease customers and shareholders by not giving loans to evil oil companies. And for all intents and purposes, our pension companies do not want to own shares in oil-related companies.