Member Info for Pelle

I work mainly with ATP, and I see 60p by spring!
Good night!

Hitman and Squif,
It would be great if you talk together and ask IR about these reversed write downs , tax credits and negative profits.

Lol Romaron, yes you tried your best.
Question is if we can say same about AB’s presentation.
Sitting halfway through Enq best ever halfyear and next year outlook seems great.
Still we taking a 30% drop and some analysts revised the numbers downwards.
I follow marketscreener, for example before results FCF
expectations was 500m 2021 and 2022.
Now dropped to 269 and 369. Too pessimistic.
Think they don’t have GE in yet.
Sales estimate 2022 dropping to 1b.
That’s roughly 45k at 60 oil.
A more realistic very careful estimate would be 55k at 65 oil equal 1,3b.

Can’t understand why AB constantly fails guide better about the future.
And if now no one counted for GE deal that is giving 200m+ FCF per year at these levels.
With an multiple of 2,5 it should add 500m minus the 250m payment. Let’s hope SP increase 40% on the date AB puts signature end September.

Think the only bank made a good analysis lately is Barclays. They only adjusted to 30p because the number shares increased and 30p is with 60 oil.
70 oil they have 50p.

By the way , does anyone still have those Barclays print screens? Can post on Avanza also again, Elex ?

Yes KO, interesting future.
Wonder when OPEC run out of spare capacity

Haha KO, not so easy get it spot on.
Been underestimate in the past also.
H2 and specially Q4 used to be very strong.
So maybe we get surprised other way next time

I think we get 60p in late spring if oil holds above 70.
Company will be in excellent shape then.

Hitman, in my opinion AB will never let production slip.
Yes it happened last year in crisis.
But the response was fast with GE!
He’s ambitions been growth but I think he will settle for maintaining 60k or small growth.
And it’s never been easier mitigating production with assets for sale at around 2xFCF + a lot opportunities in Enquest own assets.

Think the low asset prices will accelerate a future coming energy crisis.
Why develop or drill your own assets when you can buy something so cheap?
I would rather buy additional 15% at GE for 200m then drill my own fields for 200m.

Looks to me oil prices will need to go a lot higher and get supply crisis before world will start developing enough new needed fields or alternative.

Simplyme, as far as I heard Enquest never mentioned the idea of going debt free.
What I heard they want 500m bond and 500m RBL in future. That will make a net debt of around 700m.
With current estimates and oil prices we will reach that in about 9 months.
With current capex 120m FCF around 700m next year.
So there plenty cashflow to continue mitigate production or slight growth and reduce debt at slower pace and get a dividend

Hitman, GE end Sept is very imminent in my view.
And if I understand it correctly the idea is to refinance the Bonds somewhere over the next 12 months.
Pile up FCF and lower the new bond amount.

Only sad AB failed to inspire about the future when all looking so good based on these oil prices.

Therapist, Thats 56k H2.
I am at Q3 45k Q4 60k so 52,5k H2
Happy to adjust upwards
Probably you done more detail work than me

Hello L3,
Finally you found the right page:-)
The rest is details.
What I like now is that all the hard work is done bringing net debt down from 2b towards 1b and kind of maintaining production levels.
To further bring it down another 3-400m over next 9 months is easy task for AB.
Then we are where they want to be 500m bond + 500m RBL and 300m cash and net debt 700m
Basically no more amortisation needed.

3-4 years hard endless amortisations will change to some small growth + dividend within 12 months.

Do this IC really pay people write such crap?
Not even getting the reported numbers correct, I am not surprised he draws the wrong conclusions about future. Hope he been fired already last week.

AB mention debt / EBITDA was at comfortable level at around 2 end June.
Seems about right with my file.
Going forward this multiple
End 2021 1,4
H1 2022 0,8
End 2022 0,4

The turnaround over next 9 months will be great given oil prices stay 60+

Sipp, think most agree here production pushing towards 60k from October. GE was 13k June and not sure if last well drilled was online yet there. Good chance starting well above the 10k there.

My latest FCF show 265m H2
+ OO money 50m
Let’s say 300m in

GE final price around 250m

So I would expect around 50m debt reduction but it’s really a different company after GE completed in less then one month.
FCF machine and during spring achieves low net 700-800m. Then future FCF can easy mitigate production declines by drilling or deals. And leave some room for dividend H2 next year

Barclays made best analyse I seen lately, 30p with 60oil and 50p with 70oil.
FCF 500m with 60 oil

Hitman, seems investor chronicle spend less then 5 min research. Some big mistakes, Kraken production not down 30% , net debt not 1,84b.
And as you say completely leaving GE out of the picture.
Guess they will get surprised when production is up 25-30 % next year.
And that is the lowest cost production set of fields Enquest ever had

They have target based on 60 oil 30p so keep filling up 70 oil days.
They had 54 p with 70 oil

EP might be connected with new deal in Malaysia AB mention to Bloomberg

Jeffrey, what in world would make you think L3 is holding any shares? Lol

I adjusted some numbers and nothing really changed in the big picture.
Enquest have an habit of starting slow with FCF early in the year and stronger H2 specially Nov / Dec.
This will be even more this year with GE and hedging.
I still expect 700m FCF / debt reduction per year starting from Q4.
In 6-9 months from now debt won’t be discussed anymore

INQUIRY
Enquest continues to look at acquisition opportunities in Southeast Asia according to CEO - BN (Finwire)
2021-09-02 11:52
The oil company Enquest continues to look for acquisition opportunities in Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, after the latest deals in the North Sea. This was stated by CEO Amjad Bseisu to Bloomberg News.

Bseisu said that there is already an acquisition that is under process, without wanting to reveal what kind of business it is.

Enquest, which is focused on the British North Sea and Malaysia, has strengthened its cash flows during the first half of the year thanks to higher prices. The net debt is now at "comfortable" 2.1 times EBITDA, but the company intends to continue to reduce it further as promised, Bseisu said.

Reno Santic
News agency Finwire
https://twitter.com/finwire
newsroom@finwire.se

Thanks Therapist :-)
Good luck tomorrow all!