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In SETSqx auction..

ATG - from the 14/11/22 rns which announced the latest (r550m) convertible facility, if fully drawn (by end 2023) the max interest figure that ARC have in KRPZ shares goes to 94.5% (assuming they also exercise the call option over other shares held by Kropz Intl Sarl).
I recall from an rns some time last year that $1m from one of the finance facilities was earmarked for Hinda project development costs. There's been no update on this since, something was expected by Jan 22 but news on Hinda has been pretty non-existent.

Summary of Hinda below from the Kropz website. Appears to be fully owned by Kropz. And how much of Kropz is now pledged to ARC for all the finance provided in the past 2 years?

Hinda, in the Republic of Congo (RoC), is believed to be one of the world’s largest undeveloped sedimentary-hosted phosphate reserves. Shallow, it has a JORC-compliant mineral resource base totalling more than 650Mt at a grade of 10% P2O5 and a total reserve of 404.9Mt at a grade of 11% P2O5. Opencast mining is employed, starting with a low strip ratio.

The phosphate mineralisation is hosted in a 300-800m wide corridor, within fault-bounded graben. There are two main phosphate-bearing sedimentary layers, forming contiguous layers up to 65 m thick. The prospecting licence covers an area of some 260km2 of the country’s coastal basin. The project is permitted, with terms of reference accepted for modifications to the environmental social impact assessment.

Hinda is just 37km from the second-largest city, Pointe Noire, a port city and industrial hub, and has access to water, natural gas, a national freight route and port capacity. Hinda’s 32% phosphate rock, like that of Elandsfontein, would be suitable to produce phosphoric acid, DAP, MAP and SSP. Blending of production from Hinda and Elandsfontein for certain markets is a prospect. Some US$47 million has been invested in the project to date, on drilling (929 holes), test work and studies.

A 2015 definitive feasibility study (DFS), updated in 2021 by Hatch Africa, indicates a phased approach to development, starting with 1Mtpa, increasing to 2Mtpa, with of life of mine of >25 years. For more information on the updated DFS: Hinda Update.

Currently 100% owned by Kropz, there is the future possibility of a 10% participation by the RoC Government.

The investment environment in the RoC is favourable, A renewable 25-year mining licence and MIA has been signed, with significant tax concessions.

Is this the type of situation where Odey bid for the company and take it private, within their hedge funds? Or provide finance with a similar outcome? They've been a large supporter for the past 12 months+ and have done similar deals in the past. Just a thought..

Canaccord made a few mentions of Mistral in their most recent note:

Invinity's major VFB orders are getting
steadily larger: ESO, ordered in 2018, was
5 MWh, Yadlamalka in Nov-20 was 8 MWh,
Chappice Lake in Feb-22 was 8.4 MWh,
Indian Energy in Oct-22 was 10 MWh,
Everdura in Dec-22 was 15 MWh, and now
LDES/National Grid is 30 MWh. Pricing for
this project is also attractive; including the
initial 2022 LDES award we estimate a price
of $980/kWh, which is the upper end of
recent awards. This also gives us increased
confidence in the market acceptability of
the new Mistral product, which is expected
to lower costs significantly.

After revenue of c.£5mn in calendar 2022 (final FY results for Invinity are expected later
in April) we expect revenue to jump nearly five-fold this year and above £50mn next
year; as discussed above this is strongly underpinned by firm contracts. The introduction
of Mistral later this year and commercial sales in volume next year should be the next
major step for Invinity, bringing further material revenue growth. We continue to see
very wide commercial markets for Invinity VFBs, across grid support, solar PV, wind,
island microgrid and emergency backup applications, as a critical element of the delivery
of low-cost, low-carbon electric power.

Tin prices climb to 2-month highs as reports raise concern of Myanmar export ban
• Tin prices in Shanghai jumped 11% overnight to $31,618/t, its highest since Feb 23rd, whilst LME prices climbed to $27,705/t.
• A report has circulated from Mynamar’s Wa state about a potential mining ban to preserve the country’s ore supply, although this has not been verified as of yet.
• Tin supply remains tight, and the Wa state is Myanmar’s largest producer of the metal, exporting the majority of its supply to China.

Been ripe for some time, and there have been approaches, but clearly nothing the board considered acceptable or worth putting to shareholders.
Judging from the FT article, it looks like the EU is putting some pressure on ATM to consider supplying them rather than China - they can see how dangerously weak their Li supply lines are, and how China is cornering supply from a part of the world (Africa) that would historically have looked to partner with the ex-colonists. Not any more.
Ideally for ATM, and it's patient shareholders, this should lead to a bidding contest for their massive resource - wouldn't be surprised to see some of the European commodity trading companies or listed resource stocks be interested in the whole package or a finance JV. ATM still need $400m++ to move production to a level that takes the share price to the 25p+ figure - given the slow progress in raising $30m, I can't see how they would achieve that independently.

Excerpts below, very little not already provided in the RNS (no surprise)

Although a detailed ongoing examination of various assumptions and
expectations taken from the previous management still holds potential to
surprise, given that the majority of the 2022 revenue shortfall is expected to
fall into the current period, taking the Group’s current order book to in excess
of £10m, its target of becoming cash flow positive in H2 2023 remains
unchanged.
DeepVerge’s key positioning as an environmental and life science group of
companies that develops and applies AI and IoT technology to analytical
instruments for the analysis and real-time identification of bacteria, virus
and toxins in water/wastewater, ideally positions it as a global player in an
increasingly regulated post-Pandemic world. The Group’s unique product
offering opens up significant contract opportunities which are potentially
both very ‘sticky’ and high margin. With tendering underway for a number
of such contracts, some of which are of significant scale, the Board expect to
make further announcements in due course. Success here could of course
provide some near-term strain on the Group’s immediate working capital requirements, for which it is presently exploring various funding options, including trade finance.
Further strengthening of the Board anticipated
As part of the process of strengthening the Board, interim CEO, Nigel Burton, has already noted that a further
independent Non-Executive Director is expected to be appointed as soon as practicable.

Canaccord are looking for sales of £117m for 2025, ebitda £18m and eps of 9.1p. Mistral will lower costs significantly, pricing for the LDES award is at upper range of contracts. Expecting US IRA and existing customer new orders to ramp significantly into 2025. Keep their price target at 75p but this seems to be v conservative, esp LDES has derisked the company.

Immense value in the unlisted investments, discount to NAV has widened further despite the ongoing and very significant buyback program. Agree that PE investments in the decarbonizing space have been hit massively this year so far, just look at AMTX as an example of a listed but unprofitable company with a great runway of projects and revenue plans for the next 5 years, with offtake commitments.

Some recent research comments below on RSE which highlights the yawning gap to value:

The announced 31/12/22 NAV is in line with the 31/12/22
NAV RSE previously announced via its quarterly reporting in early February
2023. There is little new information in today’s results and we previously wrote
about the 31/12/22 in this note. At the time the 31/12/22 NAV was initially
announced, we made a provisional adjustment to our live NAVe, reconciling for
the difference in our 31/12/22 estimate and the actual. Yesterday, we published
another update to our RSE model (here) to include the performance fee accrual,
which reduced our live NAV by 4.3%. Today we are making another update to
reflect (a) the additional 0.2m of HHRS shares RSE owns if the market price
exceeds $10.53, which is a condition that was met at yesterday’s HHRS close,
and this adds 0.3% to our NAVe; (b) share buybacks that have occurred post
31/12/22, adding 0.9% to our NAVe; and (c) a slightly lower performance fee
accrual, adding 0.4% to our NAVe. Overall, our new live NAV rises from
$14.29 to $14.52 and, in Sterling terms, this is 1,185pps to 1,204pps. At the
current share price of 600p (@10:00), the headline discount to NAV is 50.2%. If
we take the cash and listed holdings out at NAV, the implied discount on the
unlisted investments is now 132%. This estimate includes treating Hammerhead
as listed, which is 23.2% of NAV and now the largest single investment on a
pro-forma basis, also including the DCRD sponsor investment. We remain
Overweight.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/premier_african_minerals/news/rns/story/xle8vpw

Premier have gone from virgin bush to spodumene production, due to start this week, in 6/7months, their share price is up 150% over the past 12 months. And this is in Zim. It can be done - they got funding from their offtake partner. ATM still scrambling around trying to lock down a hugely expensive financing deal, that AV insists on stating is complete, but now we're looking at May at the earliest. And he wonders why he has sleepless nights.

and valued as if was number 37...which is crazy, esp on the day another (yet to be in production) company rejects a bid for the third time. That list would be more useful if it showed total Li mineral resource and market cap, just to highlight the valuation discrepancy.

There are several early stage Li miners that are years from production, sometimes all they have is a license and a team, and yet there MC is in the 100's of million $, or even billions as per Liontown. What they do tend to have is firm, near-term target dates for production and lined up finance.

This is why ATM isn't being valued where it should - the slow, steady, 'we'll fund it from cash flow (er, when it's negative..?), raise a little equity now and again, burn through it without generating any +ve cash return, 8 months to get a bank loan to tide them over' approach - just not cutting it. As i've said before, if they'd focused on proving the Li production process worked 2 years ago, and had the balls to commit to raising the finance then to move to phase 2 production, the MC would be 5-10x the current level and other Albermarles would be swarming over the company to take them out. But they didn't. Strategic decision making over the past 2-3 years has been poor IMO.

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) A$2.57, Mkt cap A$5.65bn - Liontown rejects $A5.5bn $3.7bn bid from Albemarle
• Liontown Resources shares rose 68.5% today to A$2.57 on news that Albemarle had bid $A5.5bn (US$3.7bn) for the company.
• Albemarle has made two previous lower bids in October and in early March
• A subsidiary of Albemarle is said to have built a 2.2% stake in a potential move towards a hostile takeover
• Liontown has signed lithium offtake deals with Ford and Tesla for production from its Kathleen Valley and Buldania mine developments.
• The Albemarle Group have accused the Liontown board of failing to consult with shareholders .
• While it is customary for Australian miners to reject a first bid, rejecting a third is almost unprecedented.
Conclusion: It is interesting to see Albemarle offering to buy Liontown and increasing its exposure to hard-rock spodumene production in Australia. This suggests to us that Spodumene remains the preferred source material for lithium production outside of the Atacama Desert region. The offer is a massive vote of confidence for hard-rock spodumene producers.

Respectfully, ATM is not profitable. It will have made a further loss for FY 2022/3 when the financials are revealed. Given the added mine costs and exhorbitant Orion finance costs when this package is finally approved, production costs will rise to $25-30k/ton from Q2 this year, resulting in greater losses per ton on increased production of tin, so overall more -ve cash flow per extra tin sold. The days of sub $20k AISC on tin production alone are over, so if the tin price dips further from here, losses increase even though they are producing more of it. Bizarre but true. Hence the weak reaction to todays news.
The only way ATM can address this is to start producing and selling Li. Todays statement doesn’t even give any certainties on this, they’e still evaluating options for separating Li and the best AV could muster was it ‘could’ lead to a saleable Li product. So a circuit is being built but they haven’t decided yet which technology is going to be finally used to produce this. After all this time and money spent. Cash will run out again unless the finance package is in place by May, and who knows what the legal costs are running to.
Despite this, they continue will drilling programmes which are consuming further cash. With the expanded and soon to be loss making tin plant now complete, the focus has to be on near term Li production as this is the only way ATM can start approaching break even and move towards positive cash flow. AV knows this, the market knows this, which is why the SP is floundering.

Doyezee, from the last RNS, the placing, subscription and open offer (there are 3 parts to it) would see new issuance of c. 80m shares in total, if all approved and subscribed for.

jan 17th call for an equity raise was on the money, but for slightly different reasons.

Todays research from VSA answers most of the questions being raised here. The fundraise takes the business through to initial launch stage of Mistral without the need to tap the CL facility any further. Demand for Mistral is expected to be significant when it becomes commercially available, pilot projects in H2 2023, unrestricted sale from H1 2024. Sales pipeline has grown considerably. Small ebitda loss predicted for 2024, strong revenue growth and initial profits from 2025 onwards. Target price 145p.

Boohoo, the warrants have been exercised by Yellow Dragon, who are subscribing for new shares at 1.95p. There's no evidence that these shares are being sold - given that the company's largest shareholder owns Yellow Dragon, and they have been accumulating shares since the company was founded i'd be surprised if they were flipping them. Their holding in ATM will have increased by a further 20m shares, ATM's issued share capital goes up again, and the company pockets £390k. They could be offloading to earn a quick 3p/share but until the shareholder register is updated there's no way of knowing this. When (if) Orion finally sign up to their finance package, the share count increases further.

Suspect the q'ly valuation update will be out monday. This is ridiculously cheap on a discount to nav basis. Is the buyback scheme currently suspended?

Sorry Boohoo, you're wrong. $22.8m of that package was secured in September, the remaining $30m+ has yet to be signed off. AV has repeatedly claimed the funding is all in place but that's not the case - it would have been announced in an RNS and as yet that hasn't happened. Believe what you like, but it hasn't dropped yet. It's also incredibly expensive financing as well, read the terms.

The Proposed Funding Package has been produced using a diverse range of funding methods, including debt, convertible notes and an equity raise with Hamman & Partners Advisory Limited and Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd acting jointly to raise US$22.8 million (c. £19.8 million), through a placing and subscriptions, a process that successfully closed on 16 September 2022.



The Development Bank of Namibia (DBN) approved a conditional US$5.8 million lending facility, previously announced on 5 July 2022, and as updated in the Company's audited financial results, which provides another component of AfriTin's Proposed Funding Package. Although this has been approved by the credit committee and board of the Development Bank of Namibia, there are certain conditions precedent that need to be adhered to, including completion of final legal documentation. At this stage there can be no guarantee the DBN facility will be entered into, or that any funds will be drawn down, but AfriTin Management have every confidence that it will be. The Directors confirm that this has now been extended such that completion is anticipated during Q1 2023. A further update will be provided when it is entered into.



Furthermore, global asset management firm Orion has been proposed as a key strategic investor for AfriTin, providing a conditional US$25 million (c. £21.5 million) investment, via Royalty (US$12.5 million), Convertible Note (US$10 million) and Equity Conscription (US$2.5 million), which the firm will manage. Orion has a strong history of cultivating sustainable shareholder value in the mining sector, as well as boasting a unique ability to identify growth opportunities at an early stage. As such, their interest in AfriTin provides a compelling endorsement of our current work and future endeavours. This Orion funding package remains subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions and approvals, including due diligence and agreeing definitive documentation, but the Directors anticipate it will be concluded in Q1 2023.