Member Info for pekingduck

Well done Charles Santos, he has done a great job since arriving as chairman. Clear reporting, hitting milestones, breath of fresh air compared to some of the dross in senior positions at other listed O&G/mining companies. Credit where it's due..

Heating up..
https://stocks.apple.com/AdOmVSqlZRSiGou1oYggF_A

I think it's pretty obvious what AV needs to do. Atlantic Lithium pre-feasibility study npv of $1.32bn and a mkt cap today of £270m. ATM's equivalent PEA (including expanded production of tin and lithium) had an npv of $2bn and todays mkt cap is less than 20% of that, although it will change when the new shares are admitted for dealing. Such massive discrepancies cannot remain unnoticed.

I mean, it doesn't take einstein to figure this one out...long term supply, safe geopolitical territory, already extracted...
Please use this cash to accelerate plans AV..

Lithium prices continue to heat up as Pilbara reports record spodumene concentrate auction
• A rally in the prices of key lithium products for EV batteries is regaining steam following a slowdown this summer.
• Pilbara Minerals was offered $7,708/t from a Chinese buyer for its spodumene concentrate.
• A similar auction in August saw a bid of $7,012/t.
• Refined lithium prices in China have touched new highs this week as EV makers ramp up finished product costs.
• Chinese authorities have already suggested a price intervention if lithium prices continue to extend gains.

100% BooHoo, it's been a challenging 12 months, I was pretty surprised to see the placing done at 5p - the little engineered bounce of last week did the trick again. If AV doesn't get it done now, he'll have no excuses if shareholders take the asset from him and his team and give it someone else to realise value.

It thought was interesting in that respect, Orion insisting upon oversight of the expansion plans and day to day operations.

A technical committee will also be set up to provide guidance with regard to the operation and expansion of Uis, comprising the Company, Orion and an independent technical expert. The proposed royalty would not entitle Orion to any revenue generated from the sale of either tantalum or lithium products.

Not sure that's right on the increase. 396m shares have been issued in the first part of the finance package - that's actually an increase of 35.3% on the pre-placement total of 1.122bn. The RNS states that these shares are 26% of the post-placement total, not the actual increase.
The 2nd part of the finance package hasn't happened yet (Orion) - but roughly this will equate to 57.5m of equity and a further 170m if the convertibles are exercised, over time. So potentially a further 227.5m extra shares.
The two together, based on the current total in issuance is an actual increase of 623.5m or 55%.
My stake in the company as a % will fall from 0.4% to 0.258% of the total shares in issuance once these events are concluded. That's a fall of 35.5%, so I feel pretty diluted!
Agree that the finance is needed, and should create a multiple of value in the mkt cap over time (at least, we all hope it will!). The fact is though, the placement in May '21 was supposed to meet this funding requirement through to phase 1 expansion and pilot plant Li/Ta production + drilling programme, and has clearly not.

Positive news

Following strong demand in the bookbuild, the total gross proceeds from the Placing has increased from US$7.5 million to US$12.8 million (£11.1 million) resulting in aggregate gross proceeds from the Fundraising of US$22.8 million. The incremental Placing proceeds will be used to further expand the Uis resource drilling programme, Brandberg West development and for general corporate purposes.

A total of 222,701,660 new Ordinary Shares ("Placing Shares") have been conditionally placed with new and existing institutional investors pursuant to the Placing by Hannam & Partners and Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited (the "Joint Bookrunners"), at a price of 5 pence per new Ordinary Share (the "Placing Price"), conditional inter alia upon their admission to trading on AIM. In addition, The Orange Trust has also subscribed for a total of 173,320,000 new Ordinary Shares (the "Subscription Shares"), at the Placing Price (the "Subscription"), conditional inter alia upon their admission to trading on AIM and receipt of proceeds.

A total of 396,021,660 new Ordinary Shares will therefore be issued pursuant to the Placing and Subscription, raising gross proceeds of £19.8 million (approximately US$22.8 million). The Placing Shares and Subscription Shares together represent approximately 26 per cent. of the Company's enlarged ordinary share capital after the completion of the Fundraising.

The Placing Price represents an 8 per cent. discount to the mid-market closing price on 15 September 2022.

I'm not sure where you get a dilution figure of 4% from Agricore, by my reckoning, the total new share issuance for both finance packages, including full equity conversion of the convertible, all at a theoretical 5p, is something like 527m shares. On a current 1.122bn shares already issued, that's an additional 47% new shares, which is real dilution for existing shareholders.
The one positive I see from this very expensive finance package is the size of it and ATM's long overdue realisation that they need to accelerate the drilling and Li/Ta separation plants and bring them both to fruition asap. The slow, modular, use free cash flow to expand approach has not worked, and left the company exposed to the volatility of the tin market. I suspect the influence of michael rawlinson as NED is behind this, he was critical of this approach in one of the crux podcasts.
Hopefully within 18 months we will see the benefits of this expensive fundraise in the form of a vastly improved & confirmed resource base and actual production of Li and Ta, which is long overdue as well.
But as for phase 2, I am still sceptical that an independent ATM will be the company that progresses this. Proving the separation technology works and obtaining a gross resource figure for Uis and the satellite licenses, for all metals, should boost the value of the company enough to deliver a take-out price that gives these recent investors a decent return, and a much larger outfit with internal finance capabilities will take it to the next level. Three of them have visited Uis in recent months.

linked to the news on the dividend payment by Sea Dragon, or is it that consideration has now been received in full for the disposal to Energy Flow Global, thus allowing SDX to start it's share buyback program..?

Or am I barking up the wrong tree?

That 25,000 @ 37.25p is actually a buy, i have also averaged down a little more in recent days. VSA's august note on IES summarised a lot of the big positives from the JV with US Vanadium, in what is going to be a vast market for energy storage.
Final para:
IES’ FY 2021 saw a move from development phase into volume, producing revenue of £3.2m (vs. our £4.0m), a closing
backlog of £13.8m, and a loss of £21.0m (vs. our £16.0m) on investment in R&D, marketing, inventory and in ramping
operations to achieve scale. May 2022 end cash closed at £18.3m. Grid storage, given the transition to renewable
generation, is a significant and growing global market. IES has the financial backing and global partnerships for growth
and the potential to significantly grow and attract the valuations assigned to key transitional energy technologies in the
U.S. The announcement today on the MOU for a potential JV with USV for VFB manufacture and marketing in the U.S.
and with the commencement this month of shares trading on the U.S. markets should help drive the valuation that IES’s
technology merits. The U.S. bill and potential spend of US$369 billion sees huge potential structural growth opportunity.
Buy. Target price of 181p/sh

Happy to be wrong on this, although the last published AISC from June was $23,500 and they haven't published one post-expansion, as this isn't scheduled to be completed until end September (dry and wet testing).
If it comes down as a result of the expansion, great news, although (again), the reason for the loan was to finance the costs of their 'continuous improvement initiatives', which are intended to reduce production costs further, and the loan hasn't happened yet, so that may well explain the need to raise finance for this and the Li plant.
The point I was making is that the forecast monthly free cashflow to fund these initiatives has dried up (for now). ATM is experiencing a cash-crunch.

One last point on the colossal undervaluation here, Atlantic Lithium’s latest presentation shows their current Li resource to be 30.1mt @ 1.26% inferred. They are funded to production ( big plus admittedly) and are likely to come on line in 2024. Max cap c. £223m today.
ATM has an inferred Li resource at present of 71.5 mt @ 0.63%, and current drilling is likely to push this to 200 mt pretty soon. Plus they obviously have tin to subsidise the cost of producing the Li ( or vice versa), and some Ta. Not funded to production, likely to be 2025/6 before meaningful Li production. Mkt cap a quarter of Atlantic. Doesn’t make sense.
From this I suggest that getting the Lithium to the test and production stage should have been the priority over expanding tin production. The listing on the ASX can’t come soon enough and I can definitely see ATM in a competitive bid situation once the mining execs that have been tripping into Namibia over recent weeks get their spreadsheets completed. GLA.

I can't comment on the state of the tin market C1, although it does seem to be as depressed now as it was extended earlier in the year, so a fair price is probably somewhere in between.
Re ATM's cash position, that data is now 6 months old, and since then the company has been piling up costs on the plant expansion, drilling test holes for the JORC and prepping the site for the Li separator plant. At a time when the the previous $800k monthly free cash flow has actually now turned negative. That cash is gone (mostly) and ATM is relying on this loan from NDB to keep the above projects on track, and it hasn't (and may never) be approved.
Hence the need to raise new finance. AV stated several years ago that there wouldn't be a new equity placement until phase 2 was financed - since then, there was a £13m raise in 2021 and now this, which i believe may be even larger. Plenty of dilution for existing shareholders, and AV's credibility in this area pretty well destroyed.
He's the CEO of an AIM listed company - you have to be prepared for them to say whatever they need to in order to keep the plates spinning. If it's wrong, how accountable is he? He never faces shareholders, other than the large ones who are no doubt being tapped for this round of financing, probably on very attractive terms. I would take what he and other CEOs say with a large pinch of salt. The macro has conspired against ATM this year, those fanciful tin prices of $34-45k per ton on which much of their strategy was based is (for now), pie in the sky. It would be nice for the board to be honest about this when they justify the placement, but i doubt they will.

I think you're right Pottss...equity and convertibles.
The financials were late, FD resigned during the period, and the bank loan has been stalled (prob as a result of the above).
Selling tin now below cost of production, unlikely to be able to fund the pilot plant for Li from current cash.
Wonder how much they might raise?

I hadn't seen this but actually picked up 50k shares in CHRY this morning, definitely feels like capitulation has happened.
Some seriously good discounts in the closed end space at the moment.

Spot on Al, to me this is the most important news, the drill will happen, negotiating with the Tanz government takes forever, so getting this underway and hopefully reaching an agreement soon is massively important. It does sound like the wheels are turning much more quickly these days, so APT should also get a quick sign off on their pre-emption rights (relatively speaking..!)

Well to me the current dynamics aren’t that great, which is why ATM is borrowing money at 11% to finish phase 1 when it was planned all along that this would be met from free cash flow, which is clearly not as strong as projected <12 months ago.
The SP doesn’t lie and is currently at the same level as 18 months ago, despite considerable derisking. Costs have obviously gone up, but so have timelines, a recurring ATM problem. Putting tin expansion ahead of separating lithium was a mistake IMO, and means margins will be contingent on the tin price for another few years.
Now that the financials are out of the way, I’d like to see directors backing their positions by buying ATM stock and investing their own cash to increase their skin in the game, which is still pretty low.
But I’ve seen this story before and often the market decides the outcome, most likely through an acceptable offer which provides the funding and keeps the big shareholders happy. Still think this is the most likely outcome.

IMO, quite a few reasons. Last years results were based on an average sale price for tin of c. $38k/ton, currently around $24k. Gross margins were 32% based on the $38k price realised, so have practically evaporated at current levels. The added 67% production from September will soften this blow in terms of revenues but do nothing for profits, unless the tin price improves.
ATM need to get Lithium production asap as currently are totally reliant on tin and therefore vulnerable to big declines, such as the one since April. The pilot plant for Lithium has been delayed and i don't expect we'll see any actual Li being produced (in small quantities) until Q3 next year.
Also, the lending facility flagged in July with DBN has not been authorised yet - it's been extended until the end of September, and the board are confident it will be approved, but nothing has been drawn down yet.
Finally, in the financials, under notes, it's clear that the tin price fall is impacting cashflows and impeding their growth plans, including the Li pilot plant, but probably other things (hence the loan from DBN) - this is the quote:

Decline in Tin Price

The recent volatility in the tin prices has placed additional pressures on the group
with regards to funding of capital expansion project via internal sources.
Management had anticipated the declines and are already at advanced stages of
securing the funding in order to continue its growth ambitions.

So all in all, mostly good progress, but not all plain sailing. It's massively important that ATM get lithium into production quickly, to subsidise the cost of producing tin, and improve margins. But this still seems 2+ years away, even with rose-tinted specs on, under the modular expansion plan they are taking.

I wouldn’t suggest using my link though..!
Haven’t heard our head of IR present before..