RE: Copper commentary15 Dec 2023 11:35
Good pop today to 177p but still way undervalued imho.
Good article here by Avi Gilbert;
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/time-for-copper-to-shine-the-case-for-southern-copper-and-freeportmcmoran-200596075
As the developing nations of the world endeavor to replace fossil fuels with renewables, the demand for copper is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade. But with economic stagnation in China, and concerns of an economic slowdown in much of Europe and possibly the US, copper prices have become as dull as an old penny. The price of the red metal has fallen from $4.70 per pound in March 2022 to roughly $3.70 today - a decline of about 20%.
From a fundamental perspective, there's an expected shortfall in copper supply that's likely to put significant upward pressure on prices. But soft pricing may persist for several months as production is expected to outstrip demand through the end of 2023 and 1Q2024 (Source: International Copper Study Group). From there, several industry analysts are anticipating a supply squeeze. For example, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) foresees a supply shortfall that will drive the price of copper to $4.50 per pound by late 2024, and to more than $6.80 per pound in 2025.
Concurring with this perspective, Max Layton, the Managing Director of Commodity Research at Citi said:
"He believes now is an ideal time for investors to buy as the price of copper is still muted on global recession concerns. The red metal has declined in price by approximately 26% from its all-time high of nearly $5.00, set in October 2021. According to Layton, copper could top out at $6.80 per pound by 2025, a jump that would "make oil's 2008 bull run look like child's play."