Member Info for Pdub

Calamari you are wrong. The paragraph you've re quoted EXPLICITLY said inventories being depleted. That is not future! That was the key point. The remainder is simply what will happen once those stocks are exhausted.

Basic economics ... if demand is rising but being met my stocks of vanadium there is in effect a temporary short term excess of supply leading to a fall in price. That surely isn't difficult to understand!!!!! However the underlying STRUCTURAL DEFICIT ie demand exceed vanadium production still exists.

Calamari I'm afraid your comments reveal that you have not absorbed all the information from TPs transcript.

He does not state that the fall in V price is attributable solely to niobium substitution. He says it it one factor and makes it clear that easily accessible import data to China indicate niobium uptake. China produces no niobium so how much they are using is visible. There has been some niobium substitution. FACT!

"but the high import levels of niobium in January led some people to believe that niobium would completely replace vanadium in high strength rebar."

He also refers to some new high cost sources of vanadium when price was high, thus affecting the supply demand dynamics.

However the most important points about the recent fall in v prices are contained in this paragraph:

"Today in China rebar production's reached an historical high point. Inventories of vanadium built at mills in late 2018 are being depleted. It's my view that both consumption of vanadium and niobium are occurring at record levels at Chinese steel mills. We do believe that once the mills have exhausted the inventories built in late 2018 we are going to see a significant increase in buying from the Chinese steel mills."

It is the gradual depletion of vanadium stocks built up in 2018 and coming to market now that is influencing the price.

Historically China is a net importer of vanadium, so if for reasons above, they are not importing so much vanadium that may impact the price globally.

The TP comments are very detailed. It is very clear that a single cursory read is not sufficient. I would advise people to revisit.

I'm not going to respond to the guesswork on how vanadium commodity traders work.

Sells and buys

The London Stock Exchange does not tag trades as buys or sells. It just gives the price.

Some platforms like unregistered page of CapitaMoneyAM just list the trades in black and white and it is up to the reader to work out whether a buy or sell. I prefer this as I am forced to use my brain to work out buys and sells. I also do frequent dummy trades to establish actual quotes for buys and sells and confirm my assumptions. This combination works well for me.

Other platforms, including HL and LSE, work out the midpoint between the official bid and ask and software then tags any trade that falls below the midpoint as a sell and colours the trade red (whether in reality a buy or sell). This is an automated computer process.

Similarly any trade above the midpoint is tagged a buy and coloured blue, irrespective of whether it was a buy or a sell.

Any trade falling on the midpoint is coloured black.

WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT IS THAT THE PUBLISHED COLOUR OF THE TRADE SHOULD NOT BE USED TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT IS A BUY OR A SELL. IT ONLY INDICATES THAT IT FELL ABOVE OR BELOW THE MIDPOINT AT THAT TIME !!!!!

That is why the published sell / buy figures on sites like LSE cannot be used as the data they rely on was not determined by whether the trades were buys or a sells but only where they were positioned below or above the midpoint at the time.

Calamari ok as you are persisting with this line please explain how the shorters are affecting the V price. Bear in mind that there is no metal exchange for vanadium.

Cindercone you dropped yourself in it first by illegally having a second account and then revealing it here.

You gave Admin no option. Not a question of anyone apwanting you banned. You got yourself into a fix and have zero reason to blame anyone else.

The conversation we were having at the time had nothing to do with that and I was very surprised by your revelation.

Oh good grief calamari.

If that is the best you've got I'm wasting my precious time.

No more to be said.

Vauch you trading this?

Cinder one why didn't anybody? Why didn't you?

He does however attempt to make sense of it and from a position of knowledge.

Given the choice of trusting his opinion or that of unknown posters on a bb with unknown motives .... who should we believe?

It is very easy to attempt to undermine the credibility of an expert that you don't want to trust. Far more difficult to put up an equally detailed and well informed counter proposal. Unless someone can do so I will treat the TP assessment as the best available.

I trust you see the logic in that?

Calamari the whole basis of your argument is that you don't trust the expert. I cannot take that as a serious defence.

It is not easy today assigning buys and sells between about 11.20 and 12.20 as HL were quoting both as 24p for most of that time.

The reason I spent a lot of time producing the Terry Perles transcript from the Largo Conference Call was to head off some of the uninformed comments that we are still seeing here about the vanadium market and price.

To be clear TP does not work for Largo. My understanding is that he is an expert in the field of vanadium and was invited in by Largo to participate in their conference call by offering his expertise and opinion on the V market. It seems to me that if Largo, one of the largest primary producers of vanadium outside of China, respect his expertise sufficiently to invite his opinion, given that they are to some extent experts themselves, it would be wise for investors in BMN to read and digest his thoughts.

Clearly some have not done that.

Hopefully at some point Alfa will add it to THP.

Calamari please read Terry Perles' comments. They will help your understanding.

You can find the 4 parts in my posting history for Thursday morning.

Regards. Pdub.

Knuttie there may be those that don't understand your humour so best clarify that you were joking.

I would imagine for the nomad to conduct such activities would at very least be frowned upon by the FCA?

For reasons that I am not allowed to post, on HL it has been impossible for some minutes to distinguish between buys and sells.

Faramog not everyone was having a go at Mr Meyer at the time. There was at least one dissenting voice!

I agree Sanchez. This goes way beyond just the price of vanadium. The shorters may be having their day. I am in no doubt we will have ours.

True the vanadium price has fallen but TP thinks there should be a reversal soon. Unless there are some who think they know more than TP that should be a good boost to confidence.

Terry Perles May 2019

"Fundamentally vanadium production continues to lag demand and the situation is expected to persist for several years."

"We do believe that we are going to see the price very soon move back above this $15 per lb V2o5 support level and we do think that there's going to be a very turbulent environment today in China this year given the situation. Also it's important to note that today vanadium prices in China are below niobium prices and in that situation there's no incentive to deal with the operational issues associated with using niobium in this application."

"... we do believe that the perception that niobium will replace vanadium in high strength rebar is causing the current weakness in the market and we expect that very soon the market's going to wake up to the fact that the consumption of both vanadium and niobium are increasing dramatically in China."

Apologies for autocorrect ... drax

Draw I am sorry but you are insulting the intelligence of a large number of very well informed posters here with that silly statement "... an inevitable 20p before Friday".

How the hell do you know that? Answer ... you don't. It's just a statement made to support what you claim is an intention to buy.

Buy, sell, do what you want but DON'T try to mislead the bb in such a blatant manner.

Yachty apologies if my previous post rattled you. It wasn't intended to as I was interested in your foray elsewhere.

I directed you towards TPs interview because quite simply I don't have a crystal ball about future vanadium and share price.

I do know this though. I was very confident about the future of this company before the Vanchem acquisition, and I am even more so now. I have also felt that the recent drop in vanadium price (since March) was due to short term factors and have previously posted that opinion. I was delighted to read TPs analysis which seems to confirm my view and explains it so well. Thus I am confident that there will be a recovery in the vanadium price 'soon'!

The short term sp, whilst being a little irritating, isn't the reason I am here so not concerned.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.