Member Info for Pdub

Sorry RK I have to correct myself. No I did mean post period sales from Vametco. That is the cash I was asking about as it adds to cash in the bank ... Unless I have missed something, and apologies if that is the case.

I am not referring to Vanchem revenue, though that will of course help with debt repayment.

Sorry RK. Yes I do mean Vanchem.

And your second point reveals why am a little sceptical of detailed analysis that is unable to include all the relevant information, including post period revenue, interesting as it most certainly is.

I should point out that there has been detailed consideration to factors that reduce available cash. Surely it is only right that additions to cash in bank should receive similar forensic attention to detail. Otherwise the the whole analysis is rendered useless.

Apologies if I have missed the relevant consideration.

Forgive me if I have missed something but has BBN or anyone else attempting such detailed future projections included the cash generated from Vametco for the post H1 period? On Vanchem completion on 31 October that is 4 months of additional revenue. Adds a few million to the pot.

Reading back I can only find reference to cash in bank at end year 2018 and end H1 2019. I assume that no one thinks that there is zero cash generation over that 4 month period? That will surely reduce the debt required to complete Vametco?

This has been an interesting thread with every post making valid points. I lean more towards investing for the future to give us greater returns long term, and am therefore prepared to wait for a dividend payment.

However one factor not mentioned I think is the price of Vanadium. At this level every $ is needed to develop and expand the business but if the V price were to rise to the $40 to $50 range pressure would surely mount for the payment of at least a small dividend next year? Unless I am mistaken that is within Fortune's expectation for the V price.

Anyway glad this is FM's decision and not mine!

It is worth remembering that BMN are building a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. This not only creates a diversity of revenue streams but also hedges against both high and low V prices. People keep asking about the sp and why it is where it is. Well putting aside market manipulation the above is a work in progress and other than Vametco the other revenue streams are not yet in place ... but they will be! And that starts soon with the Vanchem acquisition.

This quote from the FM / MN interview highlights this:

"The energy storage market is potentially 5 to 10 times bigger than the commodity market just selling V into the market. So for us it's almost a no brainer and it gives us a very good hedge in terms of the vanadium price. When V prices come off while the mining and processing prices may come down the attractiveness of our energy storage solutions goes up. The best of both worlds."

The development of the Electrolyte leasing model also hedges against high V prices affecting VRFB take up, and the acquisition of two brownfield Vanadium primary production facilities has hugely reduced the Capex costs to achieve very significant revenue and profit from the mining and processing side of the business.

This all highlights the strategic brilliance of Fortune's vision.

The next quote from the same interview highlights what can be expected in the short to medium term:

"So we have to appreciate that it's not the most straightforward story and it's one which I think the market will only fully appreciate as we deliver very granular initiatives such as the electrolyte plant and we start to produce electrolyte, we deliver the electrolyte rental contracts and the market can see how that works and how it translates into value. As we deliver deployments of VRFBs and as we demonstrate what sort of partnerships we are going to do with VRFB manufacturers. So I can understand why the story is not yet fully understood or appreciated but I think it's only a matter of time."

So in my opinion BMN are embarking on a very exciting period of expansion and diversification that should lead to significant returns for the shareholders. The future looks very exciting to me!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

This is one of the best (if not the best) mining and processing companies on AIM in terms of both having and delivering an exciting business plan, and moving towards becoming the largest vertically integrated vanadium platform.

This is my view in a nutshell of BMN:

Stage 1 (2012 to 2016)
A junior iron ore explorer that switches direction to Vanadium just before iron ore prices crash. A promising but frustrating period for its shareholders as the company lacks revenue and sees a sustained period of low share price.

Stage 2 (2017 to 2019)
Acquisition of Vametco mine and production plant instantly turns BMN into a miner and producer. Company takes advantage of low vanadium prices and Evraz policy decision to acquire brownfield site at knock down price. Rising vanadium prices plus production, revenue and profit send share price up. Further % acquisitions of Vametco generate even higher sp. company is cash rich and debt free. Retrace in V price plus other opaque market activities reduce sp but remains many times higher than in Stage 1.

Stage 3 (2019 to ?)
A period of expansion and diversification of production sites and products, largely funded by internally generated profits. Increasing production resulting in increasing revenue. In my opinion we are just entering this next phase in the history of the company with the Vanchem acquisition. I expect the sp to grow in much the same way as it did going from Stage 1 to Stage 2.

Stage 4(2020 onwards?)
Business plan successful as BMN becomes a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. Focus in the stage on BE with leasing contracts, VRFB manufacture and energy storage developments. Also increasing production at Vametco, Vanchem and Electrolyte plant. Rapid growth in revenue (and profit) further pushing the sp upwards.

I really do believe that folks need to control their impatience. The future for BMN and its shareholders looks very exciting, particularly as we are about to embark on what I think of as Stage 3.

Just my opinion of course and admittedly a rather simplistic view of the company, but that does seem to make things easy to understand and may help to explain the current sp stagnation. I don't think it will last much longer!

Regards. Pdub.

Shame. Back in Padstow early June. Perhaps that might work.

Regards. Pdub.

Ophidian Monday evening may be the only possibility for me. Various family commitments on Monday lunchtime and all day Tuesday. Would that work? Suggest early evening meal at Custom House pub? Eg 18.00?

Sorry Ophidian. Missed it.

In Padstow 5 to 12 October.

Daisydog in my experience of AIM any market response to Director buys tends to be very short lived, particularly when the company is already known to be doing well. Long term share price growth is determined by company performance and BMN is a classic case. Just compare sp post Vametco to what it was 3 years ago. That increase has been driven by production, revenue and profit.

I look forward to history repeating itself in the coming months and years. Frankly I couldn't care whether the Directors buy shares, but I I have a strong interest in the company continuing to deliver on its business plan.

That doesn't mean I would object to Director purchases. Just not relying on it to push the sp up.

Just my opinion of course.

I find that 'fat salary' comment rather strange considering that BMN are well known for NOT over rewarding the BoD.

Someone with that background should have wide choice in the job market. I suspect that it is the exciting future at BMN that would have been a significant criteria. A company that is on the up.

From time to time someone posts concerns about how BMN will do this or that .... in this case processing enough V required for the electrolyte for phase 1.

At such points I can't help thinking how glad I am that it is Fortune Mojapelo dealing with such matters and not the people expressing these thoughts.

All I feel is hugely excited about BMN's future.

Agreed pb940. They can buy on the market. No more discounted placings a for them I hope.

Apologies for obvious typo in my 07.52 post. Should read: "Nice numbers for H1 2019...."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/bushveld-minerals-ld--bmn-/rns/interim-results-for-the-6-months-to-end-june-2019/201909300700240938O/

Nice numbers for H1 2018. And this despite significant fall in commodity price. Excellent work Fortune. And H2 will see Vanchem revenue and profit added to the books without dilution.

Revenue of US$78.0 million (H1 2018: US$83.7 million).

EBITDA1 of US$41.0 million (H1 2018: US$42.8 million).

Profit after tax of US$30.8 million (H1 2018: US$28.5 million).

Free cash flow2 of US$23.3 million (H1 2018: (US$16.4 million).

Net cash balance of US$66.1 million at 30 June 2019 (31 December 2018: US$42.0 million).

Note cost of Vanchem $68 million. Compare to cash balance at end June!

RK apologies for not responding sooner to your very kind post. I have been out most of the day with family.

Pleased to be off chemo though likely to continue with side effects for some time. I am being very positive but want to avoid overconfidence (don't want a heavy fall if this cancer comes back).

As I have said before I am as confident as ever with regards to BMN buy enjoying a short break from regular posting whilst news is slack and to hopefully aid my own recovery. No doubt I will be back all guns blazing soon. Hoping to have time over the weekend to write a summary of how I see the BMN story so far and why I am so excited about the future for this company.

I would also like to say that I enjoyed the post by Conscious earlier today. Very interesting.

Sadly I have come to the conclusion that I have to filter Expert.

Regards. Pdub.

Expert please give it a rest with your childish "told you so" rubbish.

Your original question today was a reasonable one. The mixture of responses it received is a reflection of the almost total lack of respect that regulars here have for you. That in turn is a function of your behaviour on this bb. We reap what we sow.

Change your attitude and you may be received with more courtesy. Until such time I won't be wasting my time (which these days is very precious to me) attempting to debate with you.

One lesson for you. Forecasting is a precarious business. Those in the Vanadium industry that stick their heads up above the parapet and attempt to give guidance about the Vanadium market do so using information available at the time. Should circumstances change then future outcomes will also change. That clearly has happened in the V market.

What is most unpleasant is people like you appearing on this bb and sneering at others who simply voice opinions based upon information available.

I suggest that you grow up and learn how to intereact with other adults without generating unpleasantness and conflict. If you can achieve this you may receive a more welcoming response from others here. I hope that you are a decent enough person to understand what I am saying and respond positively. Time will tell.

Just my opinion.

A man that influenced many of us in the early years of BMN. He helped me gain a better understanding of all things BMN. Thank you.

Ironic for me that today is my first post chemotherapy day. I don't think he would mind me celebrating life.

With great respect to you. Pdub.