Member Info for Pdub

Wishing you a full recovery Hammerman63.

Regards. Pdub.

Evraz view of increasing Vanadium demand and VRFB potential:

"The industrial batteries market may also bolster growth. So far it is responsible for only 3% to 5% of demand for vanadium, but the market is now recovering as prices decline, Erenburg said."

So lower prices will encourage VRFB uptake. This new market for vanadium is likely to have a substantial impact on vanadium demand

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-26/top-vanadium-producer-sees-demand-increasing-after-prices-slump

There will always be those who can't see the wood for the trees. However take a step back and look at the big picture and in my opinion the future for BMN and its shareholders looks very exciting.

The next quote from the same interview highlights what can be expected in the short to medium term:

"So we have to appreciate that it's not the most straightforward story and it's one which I think the market will only fully appreciate as we deliver very granular initiatives such as the electrolyte plant and we start to produce electrolyte, we deliver the electrolyte rental contracts and the market can see how that works and how it translates into value. As we deliver deployments of VRFBs and as we demonstrate what sort of partnerships we are going to do with VRFB manufacturers. So I can understand why the story is not yet fully understood or appreciated but I think it's only a matter of time."

And what about low V prices? Well that's the benefit of creating a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform, allowing BMN to take advantage of both high and low Vanadium prices. FM opinion:

"The energy storage market is potentially 5 to 10 times bigger than the commodity market just selling V into the market. So for us it's almost a no brainer and it gives us a very good hedge in terms of the vanadium price. When V prices come off while the mining and processing prices may come down the attractiveness of our energy storage solutions goes up. The best of both worlds."

Then on "Mokopane Mining Right Application Granted" RNS Fortune Mojapelo said:

"The granting of a mining right application is a significant milestone in the development of the Mokopane Vanadium Project. It comes at an important time as the Company executes its growth strategy. The Mokopane Project is one of the best and most developed greenfield primary vanadium projects that is well positioned to support the Company's growth strategy as primary supply to Vanchem, potential supply of ore to other third party processing facilities, all the while retaining the option to develop downstream primary processing capacity as the market develops and grows."

This ties in beautifully with the Vanchem acquisition.

From Finance RNS CEO Fortune Mojapelo said the following:

"Bushveld's ambition to become a leading low cost producer takes a big step forward with the acquisition of Vanchem. With this acquisition, the Company will have two quality primary processing assets producing a complementary suite of products, with a four kiln configuration, that gives it unmatched production flexibility. This is supported by the Company's high grade resource base, that is well serviced by logistics infrastructure. Furthermore, Vanchem's attractive suite of vanadium products complements the NitrovanTM produced at Vametco. These include ferrovanadium, vanadium pentoxide, vanadium trioxide and vanadium chemicals. The vanadium chemicals capability will be particularly key as the Company grows its exposure to the emerging stationary energy storage industry through vanadium redox flow batteries."

A clear vision of the importance of the Vanchem acquisition.

JM went on to say:

"Now by my calculations BMN had enough cash to pay the original negotiated purchase price, but they quite rightly went back to the owners of Vanchem and said look boys the vanadium price has pulled back ... we need to spend some more money on revamping these assets when we get hold of them. There aren't any other buyers around and I think that's the key point. There weren't any other immediate buyers around, we would like to pay a bit less for it and by the way we're going to give you a convertible note and it will give you a bit of upside, but actually it will help us to defer the costs so we've got some more money to pay for the development of the Mokopane mine and things like that. I would call this a textbook management deal. It's really smart. Absolutely the right thing management should be doing. I'd love to see more companies do this sort of thing."

High praise indeed from a professional analyst!

Then following the Financing RNS John Meyer 23.10.19 on BMN (audioboom.com) from 6.46

"Yes again we've got quite a number of clients in the mining sector and the first of those BMN announced today it's done a great job on renegotiating the terms of its Vanchem acquisition. I don't think anyone in the market was aware of this. They've managed to knock I think it was $14.5 million off of the purchase price and they've deferred another $23.5 million of the cost through the issuance of convertibles."

From the same JM interview:

"So I think the market has missed the increase in production moving forwards because certain analysts just focused on the Vametco production whereas actually next year it's going to be Vametco and Vanchem, which will drive earnings growth. The margins on Vanchem will probably be a little bit less but that's just because they are taking over a facility that they need to learn how to run properly. And I think this is good. I think it will be a dividend paying stock going forwards. I think it's going to be a stock to watch as something that does well in the London market for some years to come."

Just a reminder of John Meyer's comments on 10 October 2019 about BMN (John Meyer is Partner and Mining Analyst at SP Angel.

"For those brave value investors out there, the guys that like to try and take advantage of tough market conditions BMN came out with their Interim Results a week ago. They're still producing pretty good profit numbers despite the pull back in Vanadium prices. We've pulled back our Vanadium price forecast just a little bit from $50 kgV to $45 kgV, which I think everybody's happy with. The company itself is long term planning on a price that's not far off that, and I think they have the added benefit of the Bushveld Energy subsidiary which is looking to build VRFBs which are good for grid power storage, and I think that's going to be a growing business for them.

So it's a business that's nicely underpinned by the earnings coming off the Vanadium. It's expanding that by buying a business called Vanchem, very cheaply in my view, and so they will be investing in that and pushing the production ahead. They can actually transport material from their existing Vametco mine straight into Vanchem and ramp up the production there, which looks really good."

Great work Alfa. Many thanks.

Regards. Pdub.

Toto what a load of tosh you write sometimes. I am around 1200% up !

I choose to remain invested because I expect far greater returns in the future. I realise your purpose is to antagonise but that really was very amateurish.

RK .... looking beyond Vanchem.

It is worth remembering that BMN are building a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. This not only creates a diversity of revenue streams but also hedges against both high and low V prices. People keep asking about the sp and why it is where it is. Well putting aside market manipulation the above is a work in progress and other than Vametco the other revenue streams are not yet in place ... but they will be! And that starts soon with the Vanchem acquisition.

This quote from the FM / MN interview highlights this:

"The energy storage market is potentially 5 to 10 times bigger than the commodity market just selling V into the market. So for us it's almost a no brainer and it gives us a very good hedge in terms of the vanadium price. When V prices come off while the mining and processing prices may come down the attractiveness of our energy storage solutions goes up. The best of both worlds."

The development of the Electrolyte leasing model also hedges against high V prices affecting VRFB take up, and the acquisition of two brownfield Vanadium primary production facilities has hugely reduced the Capex costs to achieve very significant revenue and profit from the mining and processing side of the business.

This all highlights the strategic brilliance of Fortune's vision.

The next quote from the same interview highlights what can be expected in the short to medium term:

"So we have to appreciate that it's not the most straightforward story and it's one which I think the market will only fully appreciate as we deliver very granular initiatives such as the electrolyte plant and we start to produce electrolyte, we deliver the electrolyte rental contracts and the market can see how that works and how it translates into value. As we deliver deployments of VRFBs and as we demonstrate what sort of partnerships we are going to do with VRFB manufacturers. So I can understand why the story is not yet fully understood or appreciated but I think it's only a matter of time."

So in my opinion BMN are embarking on a very exciting period of expansion and diversification that should lead to significant returns for the shareholders. The future looks very exciting to me!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Fair enough Fosters but think on this.

During our exploration phase (stage 1) the sp ranged from 1.3p to 4 or 5p, with a brief peak around 7p following Mokopane announcement on 27 November 2013. Stage 2 saw a very large rise in share price following the acquisition of Vametco. The day after the final phase of acquisition (Sojitz 15%) in September 2018 the sp closed at 25.75p. That is fairly close to today's price, and that is far higher than the typical stage 1 share price!!! The sp did spike late 2018 but that was driven largely by the very high V price which as we know has settled back again. So the Vametco acquisition has resulted in a sustainable very significant sp rise into the 20p's.

Does anyone seriously doubt that even with V prices at today's level stage 3 will see significant growth in sp as BMN increases its production sites, volume of Vanadium produced and range of products? We are only just entering this stage and already the sp has gone from around 21p 12 days ago to finish at 27.25p today. I firmly believe that stage 3 will generate significant sp growth as production, revenue and profits grow, even without a V price recovery. Of course any decent increase in V prices would have a dramatic effect on profits and probably the sp too, but even without this the future looks very exciting. And then there is BE to consider ......

I do not know what the typical BMN share price will look like during stage 3 period of expansion but logic tells me it should be some way above where we are.

Of course I cannot say how much the blatant share price manipulation has held the sp back, so for the purpose of this post I have ignored it. Without that perhaps the sp would be significantly higher.

I repeat my sp target of 75p to £1.50. That will be reviewed should the expected V price recovery take place.

All just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

What I really can't understand is why when we have an exciting growth company like BMN would any pi's be selling and at the exact point in time when it appears that an institution is sucking up millions of shares? Funny old world.

And more buys 1,238,564 and 250,000 at 27.50p

I notice in the last 30 minutes buys of 300,000 and 1,000,000 going through.

Fosters this company is far from being a pump and dump share. Anyone that has followed the story closely should be very well aware of that. I believe we are on the brink of a very exciting period in the company's development. No one can deny the importance of the V price but take care not to ignore the low cost of production and excellent management.

This is my view in a nutshell of BMN. Might give you food for thought:

Stage 1 (2012 to 2016)
A junior iron ore explorer that switches direction to Vanadium just before iron ore prices crash. A promising but frustrating period for its shareholders as the company lacks revenue and sees a sustained period of low share price.

Stage 2 (2017 to 2019)
Acquisition of Vametco mine and production plant instantly turns BMN into a miner and producer. Company takes advantage of low vanadium prices and Evraz policy decision to acquire brownfield site at knock down price. Rising vanadium prices plus production, revenue and profit send share price up. Further % acquisitions of Vametco generate even higher sp. company is cash rich and debt free. Retrace in V price plus other opaque market activities reduce sp but remains many times higher than in Stage 1.

Stage 3 (2019 to ?)
A period of expansion and diversification of production sites and products, largely funded by internally generated profits. Increasing production resulting in increasing revenue. In my opinion we are just entering this next phase in the history of the company with the Vanchem acquisition. I expect the sp to grow in much the same way as it did going from Stage 1 to Stage 2.

Stage 4(2020 onwards?)
Business plan successful as BMN becomes a low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform. Focus in the stage on BE with leasing contracts, VRFB manufacture and energy storage developments. Also increasing production at Vametco, Vanchem and Electrolyte plant. Rapid growth in revenue (and profit) further pushing the sp upwards.

I really do believe that folks need to control their impatience. The future for BMN and its shareholders looks very exciting, particularly as we are about to embark on what I think of as Stage 3.

Just my opinion of course and admittedly a rather simplistic view of the company, but that does seem to make things easy to understand and may help to explain the current sp stagnation. I don't think it will last much longer!

Regards. Pdub.

Well said loudspeaker.