SP Angel BMN this morning20 Dec 2018 11:22
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Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) Following 46.75p, Mkt Cap £523m – Chinese authorities likely to send inspectors to enforce vanadium alloy content for steel rebar
BUY - Target Price 87p
(Bushveld Minerals now hold 74% of Vametco and 84% of Bushveld Energy it’s vanadium redox battery unit)
Chinese steel mills continue to cheat the system by failing to add sufficient vanadium to alloy their steel rebar as required under new construction regulations.
The result is that demand for ferro-vanadium is said to be falling short of the 2,000t per month of additional vanadium estimated to meet the new standards.
Ferro-vanadium prices continue to support extraordinary high levels despite pulling back 9.7% to $82-85/kgV in Western Europe.
Prices for ferro-vanadium also pulled back 2.6% in China to US$93./kg for 80% FOB China according to AsiaMetals.com.
We suspect many buyers in the steel industry are holding back till the new year or for lower price levels.
The Metal Bulletin also report that new standards for Steel Rebar in China are not being as well enforced as was previously expected.
China’s new standards require 600MPa-tensile strength rebar offering better earthquake resistance which should, in theory, require Grade 3 and above Rebar with higher vanadium content and should virtually eliminate production of Quench and Temper ‘Q&T’ rebar steel which is more brittle and loses strength and integrity on corrosion. Under China’s new rules and using new testing equipment ‘Q&T’ rebar should not pass quality tests.
Problem is that corrupt Chines officials may still be allowing Q&T rebar into the building trade enabling producers to save on the cost of the vanadium.
The new standards require 0.03-0.05% and 0.05-0.08% of vanadium to be added to differing steels adding
This is relatively little metal in tonnage terms with the new standards requiring somewhere between 0.3—0.8Kg per tonne of alloyed steel
The report suggests the lack of new vanadium demand is down to cost saving by steel mills driven by lower profits and steel prices, no requirement to provide data on the alloy content on the rebar produced and a lack of inspection teams.
Conclusion: The Chinese state is seen as responsible for the integrity of construction and memories of fatalities from the last major earthquake feel relatively fresh.
China’s authorities are not likely to tolerate the use of substandard rebar in construction for long and will surely send inspectors out next year to enforce the new standards.