Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
https://www.citizen.co.za/news/city-of-joburg-ditches-eskom/
After losing R300 million a day to load shedding, the City of Joburg multi-party government is gatvol and has announced that City Power has secured electricity from alternative energy sources through short-term power purchase agreements of up to 36 months to keep the lights on.
The city of Joburg made the announcement, which is expected to be welcomed by residents as they continue to battle with the deliberate power cuts imposed by Eskom with no reprieve in sight, on Tuesday.
Reinstated Johannesburg mayor Mpho Phalatse said the positive step towards mitigating and eventually ending rolling blackouts follows commitments made at the two-day Joburg Energy Indaba convened in April 2022.
“The Requests for Proposal (RFP) were published this morning, signaling a clear start for Joburg as we embark on the journey of securing reliable, sustainable and affordable energy that will keep the economy running and the lights on, thus sustaining and improving lives and livelihoods.”
“A city whose contribution to the national economy is almost 16%, while making up 40% of Gauteng’s economy, cannot be left without energy for hours on end,” Phalatse said.
MMC for Environment and Infrastructure Service Michael Sun said City Power currently purchases 90% of its electricity from Eskom with the balance coming from the Kelvin Power Station.
“The launch of the first phase of the Independent Power Producer Program is the culmination of many hours of diligent work carried out by City Power; and while I am proud of the efforts thus far, this is only the beginning of the multi-party government’s determined effort to shield residents from the socioeconomic poison of rolling blackouts.”
City Power CEO, Tshifularo Mashava, said the utility is also currently undergoing an approval process for ministerial determination to procure power on a longer-term basis from IPPs.
“By going out into the market now, City Power seeks to secure extra capacity from diversified energy sources, including solar, gas, battery storage, waste-to-energy, as well as the dispatchable option of gas-to-power.”
“The traditional business model of procuring the bulk of our power from Eskom is no longer viable. Eskom itself has conceded to that effect. It is for this reason that we have developed a sustainable energy strategy that includes procuring power from diverse sources.”
The City of Joburg said the decision follows five-months of consultations with stakeholders, including Treasury, Mineral Resources and Energy, Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa and the City of Cape Town.
On Tuesday, City Power said the City of Joburg loses in excess of R300 million a day due to the rolling blackouts.
City Power spokesperson Isaac Mangena said the impact of load shedding by Eskom on the city’s resources and infrastructure could not be ignored.
Valuation and estimates: Our unchanged 2022 full-year earnings estimates assume production and costs within Bushveld’s guidance range, and a realised vanadium price of US$40/kg. The latter is broadly in-line with year-to-date market averages, though above current spot. We feel market pricing is at a low point and see upside potential should coproduction supply recede with lower seaborne iron-ore pricing, as it has in the past. We also note that Bushveld sells much of its product into the US, where vanadium is currently priced at a premium relative to other parts of the world. Nevertheless, we will review our full-year estimates should Q4 pricing remain weak and/or if ongoing power load-shedding in South Africa causes any change to Bushveld’s production outlook. We continue to forecast a more marked growth in earnings next year as production settles at a sustainable rate of 5,000-5,400t pa. Given the relatively high fixed component of operating costs, Bushveld’s longer-term ambition to expand output rates in stages to an ultimate c.8,000t pa – an initiative it will only sanction once near-term targets are achieved and funding is secured – would widen margins further, and by our estimates could see consolidated EBITDA grow to c.US$100m pa (around
double our forecast annualised EBITDA at the 2022 year-exit target production rate). An expansion would increase our NPV8% estimate by over 50% – our 18p valuation includes just 0.5x of this incremental uplift, reflecting uncertainty over timing, funding and opex structure.
You keep going back to 2018 alfredh when Bushveld had owned Vametco just over 12 months and were obviously learning how to manage the production side of things. You also take no interest in the Vanchem review which provides ample reasons for why they didn't achieve what upgrading the equipment should have include a drop in the grade of the vanadium ore.
I was certain I was going to do 10000 miles a year when I bought my car in 2019 and took out pcp. Turns out what I was certain of when I bought the car was affected by things I wasn't expecting and only managed 4000 miles.
This has obviously upset you in quite a big way so you should probably contact the company or better yet turn up at the investor meeting and air your views in public.
I've invested in quite a few mining companies over the years and they move at a glacial speed and very rarely get into production. I am quite able and willing to wait and see Bushveld mature into a major business. If you believe Bushveld have purposely misled you then you should take them to court. Pretty sure they will be able to provide a mountain of mitigating evidence for why they haven't managed to achieve the production they expected.
I've said my piece and don't really have any more to add as we're just going around in circles.
I can see that alfredh. They obviously expected the changes made to achieve that, when it didn't they found a multitude of problems in the Vametco Diagnostic Review, presented in 2019. The review also shows they accepted that running the plant at 90% of name plate capacity would be safer for the overall stability of the plant but from that 3400t they would lose 4 weeks a year for maintenance. Over the following years they have dealt with strike action, covid and load shedding meaning they were never going to reach 90% of the name plate capacity. That's what I think anyway.
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Phase 2 of the multi-phase project was completed in June 2018 increasing production capacity to 3,750 mtV. During the commissioning phase, production of the new milling circuit was unable to ramp up to the nameplate capacity. Concurrently, there was a reduction in the run-of-mine ore vanadium grades. These events lead to a reduced concentrate production, lower recoveries and plant instability, resulting in the plant not meeting its capacity target.
Ø The diagnostic review highlighted that no additional capital expenditure is required to achieve a sustainable production of c.3,400 mtV, which represents 90 per cent of the name plate capacity. In order to achieve the production target management will be primarily focused on, among others:
§ Increasing vanadium grade in crushed ore through improved mine scheduling which will result in an increased exposure to ore of higher vanadium content and magnetite;
§ Increasing vanadium grade in kiln feed through improved silica liberation;
§ Increasing kiln availability through improved engineering practices and production throughput; and
§ Sustainably increasing the kiln feed rate.
Just a minute or so from 10:40.
He's sure we're getting close to utilities using Vanadium Redox batteries so it's quite likely demand will increase fr.m that area and I think will be a strong driver going forwards in the next few years'
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bushveld-minerals-ld/rns/q1-2020-operational-update/202005040700067416L/
Other projects underway at Vametco
•?The kiln off-gas project has been placed on hold due to Covid-19 restrictions. A review of timing for completion of the project is being considered and further detail will be provided accordingly. The purpose of the kiln off-gas project is to comply with environmental regulatory requirements and further increase kiln feed throughput. Engagements with the relevant authorities are underway.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bushveld-minerals-ld/rns/interim-results-for-six-months-to-end-june-2020/202009300736045645A/
Vametco
Phase III expansion project
In Q4 2020, we will commence a pre-feasibility study, estimated to cost ZAR4 million (circa US$240,000) for phase III of the expansion for Vametco to achieve a steady state production run-rate of 4,200 mtV per annum. The preliminary capital expenditure for phase III is estimated at approximately ZAR430 million (circa US$26 million), with most of the cost being Rand-denominated. The capital expenditure and production profile will be finalised after prefeasibility and feasibility studies are concluded.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bushveld-minerals-ld/rns/q2-2021-and-h1-2021-operational-update/202107210700039458F/
Growth Projects
Vametco Phase III PFS
The scope of work of the PFS for Vametco has been extended to include upgrading the concentrate section to a Semi-Autogenous Grinding mill and life of mine of Open Pit with higher production to supply both Vametco and Vanchem, making Vametco the single ore supply for both operations for the medium-term. Details on the ramp-up profile and capital expenditure plans will be provided once the PFS has been completed, which is expected in Q4 2021.
Then finally they have the following update in June.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bushveld-minerals-ld/rns/key-findings-of-vametco-and-vanchem-studies/202206221045017984P/
Only providing these links for info, no comment other than time and circumstance required the plans to be changed. I do think that they overestimated the quality of the equipment and underestimated the investment required though.;
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bushveld-minerals-ld/rns/bushveld-vanadium-q4-operational-update/201901300700044697O/
Vametco Diagnostic Review
· Vametco's 2018 production of 2,560mtV was impacted by a total of 37.5 days stoppages and unexpected operational challenges. An estimated 230 mtV of production was lost due to these unforeseen events. The total potential production for the year would therefore have been approximately 2,800 mtV. Following the operational challenges experienced during the ramp up of Phase 2, Bushveld Minerals, with the assistance of an external consultant, commenced in October 2018 a detailed diagnostic review of the Vametco plant performance which was completed in December 2018. The primary findings of the diagnostic assessment are summarised below.
Phase 2 of the multi-phase project
Ø Phase 2 of the multi-phase project was completed in June 2018 increasing production capacity to 3,750 mtV. During the commissioning phase, production of the new milling circuit was unable to ramp up to the nameplate capacity. Concurrently, there was a reduction in the run-of-mine ore vanadium grades. These events lead to a reduced concentrate production, lower recoveries and plant instability, resulting in the plant not meeting its capacity target.
Ø The diagnostic review highlighted that no additional capital expenditure is required to achieve a sustainable production of c.3,400 mtV, which represents 90 per cent of the name plate capacity. In order to achieve the production target management will be primarily focused on, among others:
§ Increasing vanadium grade in crushed ore through improved mine scheduling which will result in an increased exposure to ore of higher vanadium content and magnetite;
§ Increasing vanadium grade in kiln feed through improved silica liberation;
§ Increasing kiln availability through improved engineering practices and production throughput; and
§ Sustainably increasing the kiln feed rate.
Phase 3 of the multi-phase project
Ø The diagnostic assessment highlighted that additional targeted investment is required for the kiln, the leach and crushing circuits to reach Phase 3 capacity. The Company continues to explore several improvement initiatives to further increase production capacity to 5,000 mtV.
§ During 2019 Vametco will continue to progress environmental approvals for Phase 3 of the multi-phased expansion project. In addition, detailed design work and capital estimation will commence with a view to construction commencing in 2020.
roger65, it's been 250MWh (well it was 500MWh briefly when the website was first setup) for years so probably a typo, but that would mean someone has been on the website and changed something, but I can't figure out what.