The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/632545/germany-pledges-additional-r6-2-billion-for-south-africas-move-away-from-coal/
The German government has committed a further R6.2 billion (€355 million) to South Africa’s just transition toward a greener economy and skills development.
After negotiations last Friday (5 October) in Pretoria, the German delegation said that it would further fund the transition over a 2-year-cycle with a specific focus on climate and energy, sustainable economic development, training, as well as health-related and inclusivity factors. The funding will be in the form of grants and subsidised loans.
South Africa is planning to shift away from a coal-resilient energy supply that falls under the national power utility Eskom. In July president Cyril Ramaphosa announced the Just Transition Framework, which, under his climate commission, sets out policy measures and undertakings by various partners to minimise the economic and social impacts of a long-term switch to renewables – away from fossil fuels.
This, in turn, opened the country up to roughly R140 billion ($8.5 billion) of investment from governments across the globe, including the UK, the US, Germany, France, and the European Union.
According to the global climate summit COP27, South Africa, the 13th biggest source of greenhouse gas, will need to spend over $250 billion between now and 2050 to fund the closing of coal-fired plants.
Ramaphosa said the framework advocates for a massive expansion of renewable energy, green minerals, battery storage, new energy vehicles, and the hydrogen economy.
The new pledge by Germany, as stated by the embassy in South Africa, emphasises the country’s further commitment to the partnership to support the clean and just transition towards climate neutrality at the tip of Africa.
One of the major talking points of a transition to renewables is the risk that many people will lose their jobs as coal-fired plants and mines close. Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) reported at the end of September 2022 that the mining industry alone employed 462,000 people; this does not include those working at power stations or the companies that rely on servicing energy supply infrastructure.
The pledged funds will place emphasis on the importance of the ‘just’ component in the transition – to protect the livelihoods and the economic base of the coal basic in the policy discussions according to the German embassy.
“South Africa and Germany will further strengthen the existing bilateral TVET & Skills Development cooperation and complement these by further initiatives focusing on pathways from learning to earning,” it said.
Both the building and infrastructure projects were updated yesterday.
https://www.l2b.co.za/Project/Vanadium-Electrolyte-Production-Facility-Buildin/22815
https://www.l2b.co.za/Project/Vanadium-Electrolyte-Production-Facility-Infrast/22814
Here's the SP Angel flash note they said they would publish.
https://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Interims-highlight-solid-production-at-Vametco.pdf
With government financial support disbursed to support those efforts, various entities have been developing both vanadium production, processing and electrolyte manufacturing facilities in the country. CellCube formed an agreement with one of those, Australian Vanadium, in 2020. That said, perhaps the best-known flow battery company based in Australia so far is Redflow, which makes systems based on zinc bromine electrolyte, not vanadium pentoxide.
“We are facing a high demand for double-digit megawatt storage systems in remote areas,” Nanomem’s Andrew McKee said.
“Australian customers want to see a successful proof of concept project with a megawatt battery storage delivering power and energy for multiple hours – a complete storage technology covered by bankable performance guarantees and with the ability to leverage finance through power purchase agreements (PPAs).”
Other markets CellCube is targeting include the US. Towards the beginning of this year the company agreed a five-year vanadium electrolyte supply deal with producer US Vanadium. CellCube set up a US subsidiary in May and announced a 2MW/8MWh C&I microgrid project in Illinois a couple of months later.
In May, CellCube signed a 1GW, five-year VRFB deployment agreement with South African energy asset developer Kibo Energy. South African primary vanadium producer Bushveld Minerals’ energy storage subsidiary also holds a stake in the VRFB player.
“We are excited that the Australian government has put R&D at the forefront of their financial support to strengthen the localisation of technology and production to achieve net-zero with an Australian value chain. This cooperation follows our business strategy to establish regional offerings and working with local supply chain partners to build megawatt microgrids in our key markets,” Alexander Schoenfeldt, Enerox/CellCube CEO said.
“As started in North America and South Africa, we are now keen to start business in Australia and, as such, mobilising key staff to build local knowledge and teams and value in Australia for the Australian market.”
https://www.energy-storage.news/cellcube-in-8mwh-flow-battery-pilot-to-target-australias-ci-market-prospects/
European vanadium flow battery brand CellCube has formed an R&D partnership in Australia in anticipation of establishing a presence in the country’s long-duration energy storage market.
CellCube is the trading/brand name for Austria-headquartered technology provider Enerox. The company has partnered with BESS Research, a researcher of battery configurations.
The two will collaboratively work out how CellCube vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) could help meet the need for 24/7 low carbon energy in Australia, beginning with a pilot deployment of a 2MW/8MWh VRFB system.
The companies anticipate being able to develop and roll out a localised version of the CellCube VRFB system for the Australian market, claiming it could be ready and on sale by H2 2023. They will initially target the commercial and industrial (C&I) microgrid segment that CellCube is also pursuing opportunities in elsewhere in the world.
CellCube said C&I entities in Australia are actively looking for energy storage with duration in excess of four hours to enable decarbonisation of their operations.
The company anticipates marketing the flow battery technology, which it considers to be durable as well as long duration, to customers with industrial facilities located in remote areas with harsh climates and a need for versatile energy storage that can perform multiple applications.
BESS Research will procure the necessary parts, software, and service solutions for the pilot deployment from CellCube and could adapt or add elements to the VRFB design to meet specific needs of the Australian market.
Flow battery R&D at the forefront
Being able to source and scale raw materials and component supply is an important aspect of commercialising any technology and although the vanadium flow battery was actually invented in Australia, Windimurra, the country’s only working vanadium mine, went out of business some years ago.
Located in Western Australia, the co-developer of that plant is actually involved in the new VRFB partnership. Andrew McKee is now managing director at Nanomem, a membrane technology company.
Nanomem is helping CellCube and BESS Research to improve the proton exchange membrane that forms a key part of the VRFB system design as well as securing localised vanadium electrolyte supply.
It has also been a stated aim of the national and various state governments of Australia to develop expertise and an industrial base for manufacturing batteries, including lithium-ion and flow batteries.
That was the case even before the recent election of climate-friendly Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the Labor Party, who set Australia’s first national clean energy targets, aiming for 82% renewables by 2030.
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https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/eskom-plans-to-power-sa-households-with-micro-grids-made-of-upcycled-shipping-containers-20220929
"The ramp-up period can be accelerated to meet short-term market demand. BELCO is currently undergoing a qualification process for its electrolyte with VRFB companies in preparation for electrolyte sales next year."
I don't expect until the qualification process has been passed that any agreements will be made.
As a business it would be irresponsible to existing clients if you left yourself with no inventory to cover unseen events. There is also the need to supply the electrolyte plant next year so come will be put aside for that. Then there is simply waiting for the market to give a price that gives a return on the cost of processing it in the first place.
"We still expect that cash to hand together with internal cash generation in H2 will be sufficient to cover remaining capex requirements for the year (c.$13-14m in H2) and repayment of the group’s revolving credit facility (c.$3m at end H1)."
Valuation: With hard-won operational stability attained at Vametco, bedding-in the recently commissioned Kiln 3 at Vanchem through H2 should see production stabilise at a higher level (and costs at a lower level) by the end of this year. Longer-term, executing the phased expansion plan would unlock more substantial margin growth. At US$40/kg V, we estimate a phased expansion to 8,000t pa could see consolidated EBITDA grow to at least US$100m pa (at margins of over 35%), around double our forecast annualised EBITDA at next year’s production capacity of 5,000-5,400t (which we think would sustain a c.25% margin). An expansion would increase our NPV8% estimate by over 50% – our 18p valuation includes just 0.5x of this incremental uplift, reflecting uncertainty over timing, funding and opex structure.
They are estimating a 200 million increase of shares in issue for 2023. Not sure whether that's just based on the maximum that BMN can issue or what the think is required to cover the various outstanding monies.