Member Info for Pauliewonder

Yes at some point it got changed from late 2023 to now late H1 2024 or maybe early H2 2024. It was never specifically mentioned why although I believe that it was due to DFC coming on board and the scope of the DFS changing. Previously there was talk of a small pilot plant in 2024 but this has now changed to a substantially larger operation, which may at some point include down stream SPG. I would expect that there are imminent developments though along the lines of:

1. Tranche 2 DFC payment

2. Tranche 3 DFC payment

3. Institutional investment

4. Offtake agreements (for the non-EV side of things)

5. Potential strategic investment

6. Further confirmation of DFS development including potential further exploration, whether they bolt on a new aspect to the DFS (downstream SPG) or whether this will have its own DFS (likely)

7. Further testing results

In the recent MoneySponge interview, MR suggested that both the second and third tranches are likely to be received before 2024. 26 days left, or 16 working days. He also indicated that II funding is being worked on as we speak and that it could be soon. Could well be a busy December. Double digit SP 2 January 2024 anyone?

Balls deep also, both in S&S ISA and SIPP.

Premium content, but title says everything:

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20231115VL204/graphite-china-ev-battery+green-energy.html

Agree with Short. It was at mid price so can’t for certain day if it was a buy or sell.

Agree - they are estimates, and the one thing you can bank on is that they will be wrong. But it reflects, on a loose level, the size of the graphite market for different types of graphite appliances and the type of graphite that is used versus the type of graphite BRES has. Best of luck in your holding

I owned it too and we can disagree about the exact prices of suspension, but I’m not sure what your point is anyway. Why is suspension a bad thing or even a point to mention. You could have bought in at anywhere between 0.45 - 2.9p (which was where I bought), early, yes, but in hindsight at the right time. Unfortunately I didn’t hold to 40p ish. But there was plenty of opportunity to buy pre-suspension.

But regardless, why does a suspended share matter? BRES may well be suspended at some point.

Yes but non-EV still makes up circa 58 per cent of the current graphite market and will still be 27 per cent (2028) and 23 per cent (2030)….significant. Also, only the larger graphite flakes (BRES has this including jumbo flakes) can make up the non-EV side of things, not all mines.

Yes you are correct re: GGP, it bagged by around 40 times across months - say 24 months. I’ll fall on my sword re that one.

But EUA was 0.44p in October 2019 and it went to 40.55p in December 2020. That was a 91 bagger in 15 months. Not really sure what your point is re: the suspension. Are you suggesting that you shouldn’t count shares that are suspended….which is every single share at some point or other, for some reason or other.

Yes EUA was suspended twice (once on the way up at around 16p - at the point it had already 35 bagged) and once on the way down for Russia issue.

Regardless, I’ve been in shares before that have the X factor and not maximised my return. Won’t make the same mistake here as we are on the cusp of a takeover….next 6 months max in my view. If not a takeover, then a GGP style corporate deal.

If CT did have a large holding (no reason to doubt), then he wouldn’t be able to sell at any decent level without hugely impacting the price to the lower. This would have the impact (very short term) of rescuing the price lower because the share is very illiquid. However, he wouldn’t be able to buy back in any quantity without impacting the share price and making it increase significantly. Reason being poor liquidity and also that you would need to place fill or kill orders. He could place at limit orders but that runs the significant risk that he misses out on any rise that may come due to news.

I know the above, because I can’t buy and sell in any significant volumes, it’s part and parcel of an illiquid share but also probably explains why people sometimes sell on news (or there is more liquidity).

This will ultimately be BRES friend because the lack

Of liquidity will mean, when we do finally break this trading range, that this share sky rockets similar to shares such as GGP (50 bagger in a few weeks) and EUA (25 bagger in a few months).

BRES will have its day, and this will be soon

I think we are at the cusp of inflection now. They have sufficient testing and sampling information available to be able to get offtake agreements signed. Samples have previously been sent out and they are in discussions with multiple parties, so it think it’s simply a matter of time before we get the first offtake agreement signed. Todays RNS was fantastic. Re rate coming here although I still think we will be bought out very soon (within next 6 months) at multiples of the SP. Good luck all holders.

If you’re long here then you should probably have done some research. Do you seriously think the next piece of “real” news is going to be at the end of 2024? Do you also think that they need to fund raise to pay for wages, even though MR has continuously said they aren’t planning to raise, have just received 1m USD, will apply for another 1m USD soon, and have substantial interest from offtake partners? NC mentions SPG results which are hugely important. Then there is offtake agreements, strategic funding, potential outright sale of BRES, reassessing the current mining plan including increasing exploration, in country SPG (which quadrupoles value of low quality graphite per tonne). There is probably a lot of other points I’ve missed, but you get the point, there is a lot to happen before the close of the DFS, the most value accredit I’ve in my view, a full sale of BRES within six months

Another interview from MR:

hxxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZvlWNo6CV4

Strange that they are now starting to do Australian interviews. Wonder why that is?

I’m also buying on a monthly basis in both SIPP and ISA. Looking forward to this turning although will still keep investing at higher prices because it’s so undervalued long term

Https://mcusercontent.com/d266f47cec87da1170bcd0f35/files/f434fe4e-5601-9c96-39cf-6484f5de30e0/FE_BRES_research_note_TP_23p_to_46p.pdf

Opinion & Recommendation - The securing of a $5m grant from the DFC is a

commendable achievement for Blencowe and significantly reduces financing risks at OromCross. We have re-calibrated the PFS published last year from a NPV8 to NPV10 to reflect a

higher cost of borrowing world (from $482m to $402m) and applied certain

development/resource (30%), finance (12%) and country (25%) risk factors. The impact of

the DFC grant and potential for it to lead to securing project construction funds has resulted

in our finance risk being slashed from 40% to 12%. By applying all these risk factors to

our NPV10, we calculate a valuation of $185.7m, an increase of 46% on our previous

$126.5m estimate.

Using the current no of shares in issue and 100% project interest this would imply a price

per share of 73p (prev. 59p). If we factor in the impact of possible share dilution over the

next 24-months, we arrive at a 46p valuation. Taking an even more prudent approach and

assuming Blencowe ends up with a 51% project interest if a JV partner was bought in, then

a 23p value is calculated. Although if the DFC provides significant debt funding to construct

a mine, such a severe project dilution may not be needed, instead a smaller valuation

adjustment would be made according to the impact on future cash flows from whatever

potential funding solution is provided.

Further upside, which is not factored into our estimates could come from an improvement

in the resource size to increase mine life, higher p.a. production volumes and building of a

downstream processing facility. The latter of these enhancements is the most exciting and

possible now with the financial muscle of the DFC, whose involvement now has potential to

elevate the project nearer a telephone number style valuation. With all the above thoughts

in mind, we recommend the shares as a ‘Buy’, with a price target range of 23p to 46p per

share, both of which are much higher than the current share price of around 5p.

Wonder how long it is before we are saying “see if we can take on 60p today”

From 26 October 2022 RNS:

“ Blencowe Resources Plc ("Blencowe Resources" or the "Company") (LSE: BRES) is pleased to announce a placing of 18,750,000 new ordinary shares ("Placing Shares") at 4 pence per share to raise a total of GBP750,000 ("Placing") from three existing shareholders. The placees will receive 1 warrant per 2 Placing Shares, exercisable at 8p for 3 years from admission ("Investor Warrants")”.

So 6.25m warrants at 8p would be an additional £500k to the coffers. So we will have enough money to deliver DFS no probs (especially if we get to 8p and warrants are exercised (wouldn’t be surprised if that was this week)).

“Further, the uncertainties over this and where the 50% BRES needs to find to fund its part of the DFS will come from might be holding back the SP, that and that we have yet to have confirmed the graphite can be ratcheted up to the +99 required, economically”.

This seems to be misunderstood. There was initially comment (when the application went in / around May time with the BRES investor interview) that BRES need to also find 50% of funds for the DFS. This is not the case and MR clarified this clearly in his comment during the Proactive interview on Friday:

“To be clear, Blencowe does not need to match these tranches, but just hit the milestones and then apply for the cash”.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1018460/blencowe-resources-updates-on-test-work-and-dfc-funding-progress-1018460.html

The issue is that DFC don’t want to fund 100% of the project without a commitment from BRES that they are serious about taking the project forward. I don’t think they will be looking at BRES to match every single penny (hence MR comment), but instead, BRES has to hit the milestones stated. BRES has also spent money on the DFS and hit milestone one so far, very close to hitting milestone two. Therefore, they are due $2m very quickly, $1m immediately (applied for already which MR will RNS when received) and another $1m in say a month or so. This money can be used to work towards tranches 3-5 milestones.

Summary: BRES don’t need to find 50% of the DFC grant as they have already committed significant funds to OC. In the recent RNS / interview there was no mention of 50% although previously there had been. There are warrants that the board will take when no longer in a closed period (see Warrants Update RNS) which will generate an additional £126k and there are additional warrants outstanding at a higher price (think 8p if memory serves - need to check). Also BRES will be able to offset some of the funds which are imminently due against the different tranche milestones until a more substantial / longer term agreement is reached l, most likely between DFC and private offtakers. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this taken out very quickly by a US company, securing Graphite for the long term at a very cheap price given the potential (say £100m which is a ten bagger from here). MR to keep his role and deliver the project to provide US companies with cheap graphite to meet their ongoing needs, given the size and scale of OC. All positive, but talks of 100 bagging over the next couple of years is likely unrealistic, not because the value isn’t there….it most certainly is, it more because US will take this out very quickly before it gets to the $billions Market Cap. Ten or twenty bagger in the next couple of months would surprise me though.

Https://youtu.be/XO7_5Z4IBBg?si=pY4RsfZ6DQFZMMEz

Boom…grant signed. Huge upside. Well done to those who continued to hold or took advantage of lower sp, we have just secured long term funding, so we will NEVER see these prices again. Project now completely derisked so the risk reduction factor can significantly be removed and therefore a much higher target price now applies. Multi bag will start here. Would t surprise me if we shortly get to double digits SP. Happy Friday everyone!!