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Who controls the world's Tungsten supply?
"Three countries comprise ~93% of global primary supply:
> China: 84%
> Vietnam: 6%
> Russia: 3%
In other words, 87% of primary tungsten production comes from every Bond villain’s home country."
What happens to the price when China turns the taps off? What happens when the market starts to anticipate it?
Rethink all the economics on Pilot Mountain.
Getting noticed by US investment sheets, about 33mins in:
https://youtu.be/mjfkzGfguEg?si=JtHmIfHsRA_nRYEP
Unless new money starts to flow into natural resources junior exploration stocks, or there's a large discovery somewhere that reignited the sector, I don't think the Phase 2 announcement will have any immediate sustainable impact on th sp, at least in the short term.
That is not to say I don't think this is a good punt.
Honestly, I was disappointed with the interview. There was an opportunity for Archer to ask some hard questions and push for answers but it felt more like a fluff piece as usual with the Prof delivering the usual long answers hogging the airtime. Sorry, I don't mean to be nasty.
Phase 2 will demonstrate something, but I foresee a reasonably long period of sp inactivity. That said large long term holders are probably content to remain , why not? they have for years already.
I love the way Mark Fairburn in each podcast keeps saying that it's not like OF to use excited language - he says this in each video now. SO actually I'm beginning to think it's very like OF to use this type of language, haha.
I mean yes, it's a nice little RNS but it falls into the category: 'we believe...', 'it could be that...', 'there's potential that...', 'if, then...'
Prefer to see hard evidence from drilling...but yeah ok, lets throw that into the increasing amount of follow-ups that need to be performed on PM - jeepers I hope they do get that grant money, and soon.
Our Chairman Greg Martyr and Country Manager Iranga Dunuwille met in Colombo today with Ranjith Premasiri, the new Director General of the mines bureau (GSMB), where they discussed addressing all steps needed to get the project into construction as soon as possible.
More meetings planned over the two weeks Greg is in #SriLanka, including at project site.
"In 1952, the US critical mineral stockpile was worth $42B (inflation-adjusted). Today, it’s worth $888M. The US has sold ~76Mlbs of tungsten alone during that timeframe.
I bet the US defense department is structurally short tungsten after decades of zero wars, an oversupplied market, and no incentive to stockpile after WWII. Historically, the US could tap domestic mines for more tungsten; if that didn’t work, they’d import some from China.
But both of those options are gone. The US has severely underinvested in tungsten production, so it can’t meet incremental stockpile demands at current WO3 spot prices. And China, as we’ve discussed, will likely ban more, not fewer, critical minerals. "
I think it's limited funds in the market and they're chasing sexier things than Graphite.
But as Rick Rule says you buy resources when they're out of favour that the world needs going forward (Tungsten is definitely one for me in that category) Graphite may not be out of favour enough to meet his criteria but I think the market is looking and thinking I've time to get into BRES it'll be H2 before anything meaningful is going to happen...opportunity cost,
Would be unsurprised to see this drift back to 4p, bizarrely!!! Not a reflection on BRES but just that's the way the market seems to behave right now, moving on to the next headline somewhere else. You would have thought yesterday's news would have put us in the 4.80 - 5.20p range.
It all seems to be about opportunity costs at the moment.
"Conclusion: Stalking A Capital-Starved Industry
Tungsten has all the ingredients for a massive supply/demand imbalance over the next few years. Multiple demand drivers from military/defense, semiconductors/robotics, and EVs are jockeying for more tungsten supply.
At the same time, the industry has been oversupplied for nearly a decade, and there’s no incentive to bring new capacity online at the current price. Plus, there’s the growing concern that China, the world’s largest producer, could turn off its supply at any point in the name of Resource Nationalism.
The result is an industry with a potential 19,000-ton deficit or 16% of total demand. History shows that when that happens, tungsten prices skyrocket, the miners make tons of money, and assets/deposits trade for 20x+ earnings.
Nobody’s talking about, looking at, or even thinking about tungsten. Reading this Industry Primer puts you in the top 1% of investors knowledgeable about tungsten. All that’s left is to sit and wait for the market to give us our fat pitch price."
"We’re approaching an inflection point in tungsten supply. The US will quickly run out of stockpiled tungsten and flip from net seller to buyer over the next 12-18 months.
Moreover, there is a non-zero probability of China banning tungsten supply from global markets, just like it did germanium and gallium earlier this year.
And if I’m honest, it’s a win-win for China if they do. They’ve spent decades building domestic supply chains from raw material production to smelting and refining. The US hasn’t.
We could see 200-400% price increases if China restricts tungsten supply, as Ronald Limbaugh explained in his book Tungsten in Peace & War "
Https://macro-ops.com/an-industry-primer-on-tungsten/
Tungsten has everything we want in a commodity thesis:
Multiple accelerating demand drivers
Bombed-out sentiment
Lack of new supply
Potential for massive supply/demand imbalance