@DVH - how you feeling today? End of the week, digested the news and impact of the raise, you were even about to go longer yesterday?
I still think March could be transformative (once we get progress on the credit committee Feb meetings) and the price of Gold ain't hurtin' the in-ground valuations.
The Chinese now actively stimulating their economy (like they've a choice) and aiming for 5% GDP growth - could see demand for Titanium could be increasing again and end-users might start looking again to satisfy the future anticipated demand - trying to look for positives here guys.
@DVH you don't believe the TK financing is due anytime soon, or at least is significantly delayed, right?
Do you then believe that the 2nd bank credit committee approval is also delayed, or do you see that as a separate event that won't influence the SP too much?
I'm trying to understand your position, especially given you've placed an order to buy 5m a tick or two below where we are currently.
I'm honestly looking at Kefi SP right now and considering:
> Gold price starting to breakout - goodness knows where it might be heading if you read some of the pundits, (so are in-ground asset value increasing)
> Kefi's financing is pretty close to being finalised on TK (by which I mean credit committee approvals and subsequent signings)
> The KSA assets are just looking more and more exciting every time a drill goes into the ground
> Cash in the bank - yes the raise (timing of) caught us all off-guard, BUT we now near to £5m in the bank - okay reducing after repayment of debt etc, but still cash in bank which 'should' cover us until financing funds land.
I know it feels like a contrarian viewpoint given trades yester/today but sometimes THAT'S the time to buy.
@elect I have to say when I saw the RNS that was my reaction - they waited as long as possible but realised that by the time the financing funds were in the account it would be too late as they had ongoing financial commitments, so the prudent thing to do was to raise. I am still expecting 2nd bank credit committee this week or next - remain to be proved wrong (which of course would not surprise, me I'm so often wrong as my ISA can attest to, lol)
I think the market may be thinking along the lines DVH indicated, that a financing approval delay is the logical conclusion to the raise.
I don't go along with that but it means whilst one risk may have been mitigated the likelihood of another has increased.
Once we get second bank credit committee approval - which I still expect could land any day - that likelihood is reduced and then I would expect to see a signifiant rerate in the SP.
Wouldn't count on gov grant igniting the SP - didn't for BRES - and it's likely to be in progressive tranches not one big lump sum. But as you say it would allow GMET to progress things and we could finally see some actual activity rather than analysis on historical surveys.
They are getting funds dripping in from warrant exercises but what we need are the large equity holders to exercise their warrants to make that cash injection meaningful - also because these are the holders that are unlikely to sell equity to finance the exercise.
Until then I think the SP is likely to drift as smaller holders may be selling to finance warrants -and ya'know the usual limited concentration span of retail.
I hear what you're saying about offtake/financing agreements - but when the deal fell apart (sorry that's my interpretation) last year I didn't expect any news on that front for quite a while.
One of the issues I've always had here was simply the size of resource - sorry folks but it's just too small currently compared to many, many, other mineral sands projects. BUT we have the potential to rapidly expand that resource so for me when I see them trying to recruit a geologist that's very much a step in the right direction.
The bigger we can make the resource the more options we have, including potentially selling it.
At this stage I'd just like to see progress on any ruddy front.
Ignoring the Primary Bid (which was more successful than I expected) I mean how do you convince investors to pump in £4.5m, on a not huge discount (24% isn't that bad compared to some I've seen...HE1!!!)?
I mean we were literally trading at that level very recently.
The only way you can get that level of investment, in todays market, is being able to demonstrate a pretty good potential return within the not too distant future.
@DVH - give it couple of days. Then comeback with a fresh mind and see if you feel the same. If your confidence in the HAA's ability to deliver real value on these assets is shattered, then probably worthwhile developing an exit strategy that puts you where you want to be in the short-medium term.
I'm giving this a day/2 to settle down, then see where we end the week.
Then see where we end next week - 2nd bank sign-off (if still on-track) can't be far away.
What reaction then? WIth no Raise anticipation to hold it back.
Also interested to see if we finally have our Gold price breakout ...
@DVH it is perfectly feasible that financing 'sign-off' is as close as we've previously anticipated, but sign-off is not the same as receiving funds. As HAA has stated once it's approved they then clamber into the pit to negotiate equity stakes - I think this was the prudent thing put cash in the bank. It reduces the urgency of getting things over the line and increases your negotiation power when it comes to the equity haggling.
Of course I could be totally wrong - but I'm happy to remain as long as I was, perhaps even to increase the holding again. I still think March has the potential to be very interesting - it has thus far.
£495,916 raised in PB - to be honest given the dramatics on here last night I'm surprised they got within £4k of the it. Bloody well done I'd say.
I don't subscribe to the theory that Financing is delayed - this may have been on the cards all along given the length of time it takes to get approvals through Corporate processes. We've got funds, financing approvals enroute - all good.
Bring on the usual suspects -Henny Penny the sky is falling...
* Gold price is in breakout mode
* I still think we're on track to receive good news on financing before end of March (at least from credit committees that convened in Feb)
* The raise is oversubscribed in a few hours
All actually feeling pretty positive, looking forward to this month.