Member Info for PaulCy

Hi Rogue - really appreciate the response and the civilised tone! FYI I have worked as a CFO for 20 of the last 35 years in Finance - most in PLC land, currently in Small Cap. I know that, in any of those roles, if I had to go the the shareholders to say "oops" we overstated our profits by £150m over 3 years, I would expect a shoeing, possibly even my P45. If I then had to go out a 2nd time, within 4 weeks, with another issue then I would be thinking about imminent retirement. And as for a 3rd time...I probably would not have tried to slide it out on Christmas Eve? This team told the shareholders not 3 months ago that we were heading for £400m profit, almost zero net debt, and began an SBB programme (which I have done in PLCs in the past and always mistrusted as it smacks of financial engineering) which was and is chewing through huge amounts of cash - which could be considered unwise when net debt is building in an uncertain economic climate. So I can only talk from my own experience that, in any business I have ever been involved in, the recent run of events would have resulted in dismissal for the CFO at the very least. I have also worked in a listed business (20 years ago) where the CEO was also Chairman - and the lack of proper governance is a toxic issue for the culture in any business - the deification of an individual is a substantial risk issue. Personally on VTY, I did take a sizeable punt after the 1st profit warning thinking it was likely to be a one-off and was oversold - the the Labour pledge on housing would provide VTY with the tailwind it needed - sadly it was a mistake, as was the decision to hold on after each of the last 2 PWs. I am now hoping for a very long term recovery, but I am in no doubt there is more risk than reward with this share in the short and medium term. Unlike some contributors, I would not wish this on anyone and hope you manage a successful exit from here in due course.

Hi Roguemale1 - thanks for bringing it back to VTY - genuinely appreciated. I was around in the dot-com bubble around 2000, when companies were floated on promises by 1st Gen "techbros" of new business models, massive sales growth and huge ROIC. It was all utter hot-air and a lot of people lost a lot of money when the promises fell flat and the "bubble" burst. 25 years on, the rise of VTY looks similar to me in many ways - an exciting new capital-lite model for housebuilding, massive returns on capital and the glittering reputation of the all-conquering CEO/Chairman. It turns out that CEO chairman was talking rubbish, had no financial controls in place, and the model might not be all it was cracked up to be. The profits promised have not materialised, the cash mountain has been replaced by debt (at a time when borrowing costs are going up). The result is that the VTY bubble (to carry on the hot-air analogy) has been 3x punctured - and it is really hard to reinflate a punctured bubble. I really wish it wasn't so. And I dearly hope to be wrong!

Ouch. Burn!

Ouch. Burn!

Urraca - you seem nice!

Is VTY doing Carbon Capture these days? who knew?

Pavriko - it is always sore to lose - I have suffered Conservative government for most of my (long) adult life so I know the feeling well - and in their most recent 14 year long effort, they destroyed the NHS, decided that my children had to pay £60k each to go to univeristy, removed my right to work, live and travel in 27 European countries, tripled the National debt and failed to deal with Climate Change or Social Care - the latter of which will cost me my life savings if I am (un)fortunate enough to live that long. Quite apart from foisting 5 idiot prime ministers on us in as many years. So please spare me the nonsense about bad to worse about the new govt which has been in place for 6 months. If you really believe that the current govt inherited a perfect playing filed, then I would like a pint of whatever you are on. I would love to know what the solutions are that are being offered by all the touchline commentators who think everything is going so badly? How will we fund University education? How will we tackle the deficit and National Debt? How will we deal with immigation on a global basis? Climate Change? NHS? Social Care? Aging population? nah, much easier to whine than to actually come up with answers. And the Bank of England manages interest rates independently of government - current interest rates are around the norm for this country - the rates of the last 15 years were an anomoly and they are never going back there. So just try to accept that your team lost this time, accept the world as it is and not how you would like it to be, and tell us what you think about VTY - that is why we are all here!

Happy New Year Pavriko - lovely yto have you back on the VTY Board. Can i just ask if we can expect this type of contribution every day for the next 4.5 years of the current governemnt - or are you going to get over it and contribute anything positive and enlightening to the forum?

Afraid I don't buy the conspiracy theory that shorters, brokers, press etc are all in cahoots to drive down the share price. The hated shorters just believe that the current management have entirely lost all credibility and, on the balance of probabilities, that this is more likely to go down than to go up until that changes. And as the true villains in this pantomime, the management, remain in place for now it is hard to disagree. True, it has dropped from 1400 to 550 in 8 weeks - but 2 observations - the rise to 1400 was on the basis of hot-air - nothing of substance. And the management have dropped the ball 3 times already. Those two facts combine to explain the drop from 1400 to 550 much more simply than a convoluted conspiracy theory. I dont like shorting or shorters much either, but they are just benefitting from a mess they didn't create

Orchman - one financial journalist tweeted that he had heard rumours of a bid for VTY - it got some people excited for 5 minutes as was deemed to be "well connected". It was never seriously backed up. One thing that tends to happen when an SP tanks the way this one has is that retail sherholders either 1) have to sell and take the loss, or 2) hold on for the long term and hope for slow recovery or 3) indulge in wishful thinking that some white knight is going to come along and pay £10 for the shares. Those who choose 3 are almost always disappointed as miracles seldom happen!

Orchman - I respect your view. But GF is both the Chairman and the CEO - what "firmer grip" does he need? It seems he has fostered a culture where he is surrounded by people afraid to tell him what he might not like to hear - the toxic "culture" was mentioned in the 1st of the 3 recent profit warnings. It seems clear he is a Salesman who likes the sound of his own voice, who the market were happy to believe in for a while, so his management tried to hide the true cost of his projects rather than tell him that his spin was nonsense. I would suggest he took the share price to £14 on a wave of hot air and spin - not on a foundation of good sustainable business practices. I like business leaders who can be trusted - I'm afraid I dont think GF is one of those.

BigJock - totally agree - am in the same boat (and I fear my average is well north of yours sadly!) Have repeatedly said Fitzgerald he and his hapless CFO are resposilbe for the current shambles due to lack of govermance or basic financial controls, and they should both go (along with the non-exec chair of the Audit Committe is is taking his fat annual fee under false pretences and was asleep at the wheel) - but they are all still there. I persoanlly think Fitzgerald is sailing very close to the wind on Insoder Trading and related party transactions in VTY - another red flag which has not been dealt with. For me, the compnay is at best going to drift while these clowns are still in the building. But I was just pointing out that the outsourcing of the SBB, or lack of Director buys, was not necesaarily a function of their incompetence. FWIW, I am still in, unwilling to crystallise the substantial paper loss I am sitting on - only time will tell if that is a sensible move. The market thought this stock was worth £10+ on 30 October as Rachel Reeves sat down on Budget day.....the subsequnt race towards £5 in just 10 weeks has been almost entirely to do with chronic mismanagement. I doubt it will see anything like £10 for a very very long time, but a first step on the road has to be for new management to come in and build credibility with investors

Orchman - the period form the end of the accounting period (31 Dec) to the announcement of the results or "trading update" on the 15th is a closed period - during which directors and senior management are prohibited from trading in shares as part of the rules relating to Insider Trading. Share buybacks are covered by the same rules - so Direcotrs cannot be directly invvlved in a buyback during a closed period. This is th same befoe ALL anouncements of results to the public - effectively means directors and senior manament are locked out of trading in shares for about 4-6 months each year

Bigjock - it is outsourced during a closed period becuase it is a requirement to be outsourced during a closed period. For the same reason you will not see any Director buys before 15 Jan - which you would dounbtless wish to paint as further bad news. It seems now you have apparently sold your VTY holding, you just cant stay away. Given you were ramping these shares just 2 weeks ago, you do seem to have had a particualrly bad festive period. Are you ok?

Given the current situation, I would seriously question whether continution of the "return to shareholders" by way of Buyback is now a wise use of cash (it is a separate discussion whether it ever was!). We are no longer in the same financial position as we were when it was decided to go down this route - to spend £130m or more on buying back shares. As we start 2025, the overall maket conditions, the profitability of current VTY projects and the duration of said projects have all changed - and none in a positive way. I would strongly suggest that cash is king, and it would be wise at this point to abort the SBB, save cash, reducing net debt, and ride out the ensuing "storm". Any thoughts?

As explained in the RNS issued on 31/12, it is a closed period now until 15 Jan - management of the SB is outsourced to a third party so the company probably is unable to, or not required to, issue RNS in such circumstances

"The problem is this government has always been (sic)" - This has nothing to do with the Government you absolute balloon! The current share price is entirely the result of inept management and non-existent financial controls. No amount of economic upturn is going to change the fortunes of this company until Fitzgerald and his half-wit CFO are gone, along with the non-exec Chair of the audit committee. It is a sound business led by donkeys. To drop this on shareholders on Christmas Eve - hoping to sneak it out unfder the radar - shows the utter contempt with which GF and the BOD hold oredinary shareholders. In the meantime, get used to the idea that the current government is here until 2029 and stop moaning in every single post because your team lost in July - it is utterly tedious. Happy Christmas! And good luck for a prosperous 2025

Pavriko

you were the one who posted originally in screaming ALLCAPS that Trump was reducing corporate taxes in the US to 15% (notby 15%) while this terrible government in the UK was "doubling "taxes. Both of which were incorrect. My response was just putting a few facts out there to correct the inaccuracies in your post - ie corporate taxes in the US are not nor will they be 15%,and taxes in the UK have not doubled. Your subsequent post coninues to rant about Labour, imminent elections and FTSE - your opinion of which is of no interest to me or to anyone else on this Board looking for information on Vistry. You clearly have an agenda, you dont like Labour and you think this is the place to vent your spleen. Please take it elsewhere - this is a forum for investors in Vistry to share their thoughts on Vistry. I suggest going to X where there will be plenty of folk you can agree with. Toodle-pip

Corporate tax in the US is 21% Federal plus up to 10% State = up to 31%

If Trump drops Federal rate to 15%, US Corporate Tax will be broadly the same as UK Corporate tax at 25%

Go live in the US and see what happens if/when you get ill

Stop spouting misinformation and political drivel on this forum please - keep it in Xitter!

This bid could do with arriving today. Otherwise Vistry is out of the FTSE100 tonight. Which will hardly help the SP as tracker funds no longer need to hold it.