Member Info for PaulCurtis

The Prefs have lousy terms, can only convert into equity at nav. Latest Presentation shows they are still in place in 2040.

Reality is that current realisable value is a fraction of par, maybe 50%?

There’s a deal to be done here…. Probably involving a predator. Quinlan is ex Drax who still have fire power post BSIF but TRIG possible. Their latest presentation shows that they are increasing Solar to 25% from 13% by 2030

Imo stopping the buy backs is a worry but I’d really like to see some director buying this week. In fairness Vistry directors have been recent buyer including £70,000 at 350p about 3 weeks ago

But ye debt is now forecast to be over £100m net cash (previously about £70m). Debt is seasonally higher going into H2 as bulk sales in H2.

Re The Times (they do a hatchet job every month) the delay for filing 4 JV’s does not appear sinister. eg the largest is over a dispute this the Council about building a supermarket without a pre let. This does not sound like an immediate crisis and with the backdrop of Iran, one would expect the Council to be flexible

So why did he buy c. £1m of shares at 407p two months ago

Crossley

But the reality indicates that Vistry can dramatically boost cash flow and cash by cutting margins. The Market is not being rational, margins are meaningless when shares trading at a 55% discount to tangible assets. eg let’s say they slash the holding value of the land bank and shares still very cheap but margins will be great!

And they’ve had a vital 3 months to shore up balance sheet whilst in a decent market

Barratts a very large discount to NAV and a quality play. Margins should be top end when Redrow integration sorted. Has highest fire remediation liabilities though.

Gleeson largest discount to NAV and low fire remediation liabilities

PSN minimal NAV discount and less exposed to inflation as builds own timber roofs.

TW best dividend and long land bank. Exposure to London and SE though

This is all peanuts with the shares at under 50% of tangible assets! Imo the big attractive is fire remediation works are very low compared to Barratts and TW.

Is a juicy little snippet for someone to buy on the cheap..

The windfall tax is set too high to impact the Renewables (see recent updates) and switching to CfDs could be excellent news but obviously depends on the price. It’s optional so funds don’t need to switch but if price okay it could transform the business model as easier to borrow/repower

Agreed and scrubbing Renewables (by 2029/30 about 90% of UK energy) to switch into NS (most of the cheap stuff now extracted and depleting at 7% pa, small modular nuclear reactors (in trials but will be 2035 before makes they make a significant energy contribution IF viable) and most crazy of all, fracking which is not remotely proven to be viable at scale re UK geology. And if Renewables are intrusive then Fracking off the scale re pipeline distribution!

It’s unbelievably nonsensical and must be pandering for votes. Sadly they are as two faced as everyone else!

But last August BTRW was 360p, now 260p

PSN back to where it was…

Bellway have guided 10.5% for this year. Persimmon top at over 20%, the others inbetween.

The point you are missing is that Bellway targeting volumes and up North ie cheaper

Also BV includes land at realisable value so discount very relevant.

Trump’s beautiful bill has impacted Onyx (hence increase in debt as they affectively now offer third pard finance) but the business is obviously benefiting from higher oil prices. Primary looks a beneficiary (steel producer) and RED imo the best single asset

From AI

While there isn't a single slide titled "Delisting," the Annual Results 2025 Presentation (released 24 March 2026) and the accompanying Chair's Statement contain specific language regarding "private market solutions" and "consolidation".

media.umbraco.io

media.umbraco.io

+1

The board's current strategy is summarized across these key slides and sections:

1. "Strategic Initiative" Slides

The board explicitly mentions they are "investigating private market solutions". In investment trust terms, a "private market solution" is often a euphemism for:

media.umbraco.io

media.umbraco.io

Delisting: Taking the fund private through a sale to a private equity firm or a specialized infrastructure fund.

Asset Liquidation: Selling off the entire portfolio and returning the cash to shareholders.

ADVFN UK

ADVFN UK

2. "Consolidation" Strategy

The 2025 results presentation highlights that the board is "open to merging with another fund" to create a larger, more liquid vehicle.

Association of Investment Companies

Association of Investment Companies

+1

Failed Proposal: One slide notes that a "formal proposal" was recently evaluated but did not advance, though the board remains "open to bids" and further consolidation.

Proactive financial news

Proactive financial news

+1

3. "Unlocking Shareholder Value"

Slide content focusing on the ~36% share price discount (the gap between the share price and the actual value of the solar farms) explicitly states that the board is evaluating "all potential options" to close this gap. This includes the possibility that the fund might be more highly valued by a private owner than by the public stock market.

ADVFN UK

ADVFN UK

+2

Summary of Presentation Mentions

Concept Slide / Report Mention Real-World Meaning

Private market solutions "Investigating private market solutions..." Potential delisting or sale to private equity.

Consolidation "Board believes consolidation will be a major feature..." Merging with a rival fund (often leads to delisting of one).

Strategic options "Exploring options that offer clear benefits..." Broad term that includes a takeover bid.

You can find the full presentation and annual report on the Foresight Solar Reports and Publications page.

Foresight Solar

Foresight Solar

It’s referred to as a private equity de-listing.

Wind speed is higher than last year. See UKW Presentation

Yes I assume the 82% is based on estimated fixed production. Hence any production in excess of this will be market priced.

Also 2027 is 75% hedged and TRIG will almost certainly be locking in some of this spike.

Forward curve now spilling into 2028 but there will probably be massive glut in 2029.

They were 75% but now 82%. Forward curve spiking into 2027 so UKW will benefit here as well, still 60%.

Barclays 20th March

Private takeover most likely outcome if you watch Presentation?

Barratts trading a c.40% discount to tangible assets versus 30% Bellway. Barratt margins c.8-9% as it integrates Redrow versus 10.5% Bellway as of today.

Worth watching Bellway’s Presentation. Sales holding up well, March good, April might be slight softening. Nothing too worrying on build cost inflation but bricks could be a concern if crisis protracted.

It’s obviously early days re crisis so the above could easily change. However a vast amount of potential bad new now factored in.

I’ve been buying today, not smart enough to call the bottom but attractive risk reward down here.

Agree we need director buying tomorrow to de-spook the markets!