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If you check out my Twitter link I’ve got a reply from Tom and Matt. Shadowfall not closed
@paulcurtis123
Including one block of 10m at 91.5p.
Tom Winnifrith at SP claimed two days ago that shares going under 50p by Xmas so go short! However has Shadowfall now closed out? Tom appears close to SF so would be strange if they have closed. Or very smelly!
Africa is the big growth story though
Assume you have checked out the main BoD? All appear highly reputable so unlikely to be involved in a dodgy cover up!
Would they have thoroughly checked out the Shadowfall claims before signing off on such a strongly worded rebuttal?
According to UBS the market concern is over German operations. However their recent field trip indicated ‘competitive dynamics normalising’. Their 12 month price target 187p, dated 29th September post Digital Services Brifing
Every broker following VOD is +ve.
The recent Digital Services Briefing was well received and VOD did not say anything to materially impact earnings forecast.
So why are the shares c. 110p? Assume supply chain/inflationary pressures but how bad will these be? Is VOD suffering in knee jerk sympathy with BT, albeit very different markets/prospects?
Yes the debt is a bit eye watering, on the face of it SAVE highly geared. This does mean geared and therefore rapid NAV growth but clearly increases risk profile.
Balance sheet c. $225m versus market cap c. £75m. Not much of a safety net in view of gearing to debt and this may be the principle concern spooking the sellers.
However check out the small print re liabilities/provisions that can be either written off or non cash settlement. Circa $150m by my very quick calcs? Add that onto the $225m and Balance Sheet much improved?
I’m not convinced by SAVE seeking further M&A. They appear to have plenty to be getting on with already. However I assume will be cash generative...
However SAVE strikes me as much more of a takeover target than a predator! Yes M&A is on most companies back burners but SAVE has strategic potentially world class assets of a size to tempt the big boys. Now would be the time to buy before they pay down and refinance the debt....
And did I miss any reference to refinancing the debt.? This would be very big news and must be a priority
Market calling up 5%. Says Results as expected! Way better then I expected or rather feared.
It has appeared there has been a seller at c. 8p. Hopefully will be cleared today....
In view of SAVE’s reliance on fixed price gas contracts (ie independent of oil price) the share price is crazy compared to where is was last year post deal completion/pre Covid oil slump
‘ Our oil hedging strategy and gas revenues continue to protect the business from price volatility, we are achieving substantial cost reductions from our suppliers and are managing our own costs even more carefully in this challenging period. Thanks to the excellent relationships we have with our Government partners and supply chain, our NPDC receivables have fallen and we are managing our payments equitably’
My broker has spoken to all the mm’s. No one has a clue. Think could be typo and a 6 is missing or that exercising options but where’s the RNS.
Interesting thought.
Knott alluded to an ‘in Country’ solution re funding Niger since International oil farm outs on hold. And also said seeking new licences.
Thought reasonably +ve update.
95% gas State guaranteed, 65% World Bank guaranteed
Claimed no bad debts (yet!) and implied no great increase in arrears versus deal completion.
Bad news re Niger was no short term prospect of farm out (no **** Sherlock!) but good news that Licence extended to 10 years.
Describes share price as a nonsense. Finals (mid July) will provide comprehensive detail and much more regular news flow H2.
Shore Cap have updated, Buy but no PT
Net debt position in line with forecast. Update confirms strong production growth and a ‘generally pleasing business performance’. They ‘firmly’ reiterate their BUY rec.
I’m told by my broker that Numis have issued a Buy note with 28p price target. He says he’s been told it’s today’s date but I want to confirm this. He’s trying to get a copy.
Some good info on World Bank $750m, thanks everyone
Agree 100%. Those of us who are long term investors here greatly appreciate Agadem’s contributions.
The likes of Agadem and Zengas are what makes this forum worth reading.
Gas_trader
I’m assuming a large part of your $92m is covered under Debtors.
Knott today made clear that all good operationally, this is all about getting paid.
In this respect, we all criticise the PR team but they have initiated some very positive local press coverage. Possibly a very subtle way of applying additional pressure to the Nigerian Govt to cough up.
Agadem
I think this is all about debtors. Perhaps SAVE being very careful not to publicly criticise Govt? Perhaps JL was anticipating a large Govt cheque by now?
As you seem to have the best relationship with JL, any chance you could please steel yourself for another chat? See if his bullishness is undiminished?
We know that business has gone well with gas sales higher than anticipated
However debt $520m at end May. Cash $26m
Conclusion is that there has been a large increase in debtors? Hence one big Govt cheque would absolutely transform SAVE!
Results hinge primarily on SAVE reassuring markets that they are/will be paid.
I think it’s clear from press articles that Nigerian Govt realise that they need to pay gas industry enough not only to survive but to reinvest. This means ensuring that Companies and investors have sufficient confidence.
Hence I hope this will be a given with results. The icing on the cake is whether we will have enough Nigerian income in order to invest in Niger. IMO the value of Niger increases with completion of the pipeline so I would hope that SAVE report +ve progress re farm out. However it may still be too early in the Covid recovery phase to attract anything but derisory offers.
Just been reading latest RBC note on Tullow.
They list all the questions they want to ask the new incoming CEO.
One was is he still keen on investing in Nigeria? He bid on an asset there in previous company.
Second was what is his view on explo. Tullow has had mixed results and very little shareholder appetite. Would he look to buy proven reserves/production?
It’s not rocket science and self evident from previous sell offs. The big boys mop up the undervalued smaller players with quality assets. Only this time round there should be increased interest. Why would oil companies/investors commit to explo and subsequent appraisal and development phases so that in production in 7 - 10 years (when who knows what the oil price will be) when you can buy cheap production now, just in time for the recovery phase?
It’s a no brainier!
So, imo, just a matter of time before the action starts, hopefully sparking a sector rally.
There are not many ‘small’ companies with quality assets offering the scale to attract a cash rich predator. Can you think of any?!