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Vistry Friday
Persimmon trading update tomorrow.
Baffled
Good post and I’m also a value investor. I’m invested in all the house builders but biased towards, Redrow, TW, Vistry and Crest (although top sliced this a couple of days ago).
The Persimmon divi is highly attractive in an ISA but my concerns are the premium to NAV and it’s the only HB currently being shorted, albeit small time.
I’m increasingly buying usual suspects investment trusts, trading at historically wide discounts 10 to 20% discounts to NAV. Impossible to call the bottom (looks dire but that’s normally the bottom) so drip buying on sell offs.
I particularly like IPO as a wild card risk reward (72p, NAV 139p, £250m cash) but the biotechs such as WWH look good long term.
Total NAV was £1.738bn at YE of which the Portfolio was £1.5bn.
Hence factoring in the 40% Portfolio reduction at mid March Finals reduces the £1.5bn by £0.6bn to £0.9bn.
Taking the £0.6bn off the £1.738bn reduces NAV from 167p to 109p. Oxford has since fallen even further so NAV now just over 100p?
Above a bit simplistic and assumes unlisted have also fallen 40%.
Bellway has dropped £900bn since Gove and this latest liability appears to be sub £300m and I suspect that is subject to negotiation/clawback. We need a deal so that downside can be quantified and valuations based on the balance sheet and not group think sentiment
The reference to a significant cladding liability when timeframe extended to 30 years. My understanding is that was already in the share price but clearly spooked the markets.
But a vast amount of bad news already factored into the share price. Now trading under NAV and at 15 month low.
Gove is blustering, a deal will be done.
Inflation yes but this is a concern for all equities. Right now house builders still have pricing power .
Sell off due to rising grain prices?
Exposure to Germany and energy crisis?
I’d be very grateful if someone can please suggest some attractive gold plays, ideally paying £ dividends and not located anywhere too dodgy.
Just watched the Egon Von Greyerz YouTube interview ’2022, an epic risk moment in history’. He’s been like a broken clock and he sells safe haven gold investments but nevertheless I’m thinking I need to increase my gold exposure! Especially since I sold a large chunk of Centamin on Thursday.
Thanks
Agadem
So sorry to read this, we can only admire your stoicism. You are up there with Zengas and we owe you both an enormous debt of gratitude.
I’m inside so can’t comment on the Deal.
Very best wishes for Xmas Paul
Having now read this Note it appears to have been published before the Webcast. The Note claims base case is 460K pa whereas the transcript makes clear that 500K is the targeted base case and CEY expect to build on this. CEY apologised for the confusion over the 460K lower limit which appears misleading but was accounting procedure
I was highlighting the ‘potential’ bit.
The transcript was very upbeat and 2022 is going to hinge on evaluation of the bonanza grades. This should offer significant current share price support. Some bears have claimed the dividend is at threat, simply not true according to transcript
Ditto that the capital restructuring will be dilutive
My greatest concern was the risk of CEY launching a paper bid for someone else. Don’t see how they can at this share price but such talk never inspires confidence if current assets are so great. I assume any acquisition would be a producing asset.
Two years ago:
The Endeavour Mining Corporation has announced that it is looking to agree to a merger with Centamin due to the latter's "compelling long-term value creation opportunity."
A paper deal but opening bid valued CEY at 118p.
How low does CEY have to go before someone steps forward. The net cash pile could easily attract another paper bid from someone looking to reduce gearing?
Most of the debt is long dated 2028 bonds so although gearing a concern in a falling market, the finances are solid. Also unsecured.
That Battery Minerals has taken A$11.5m in equity implies not a scam. BAT look okay although small cap.
The Company website is unimpressive if not worrying. The information on the BoD is scant. Can’t see a list of current shareholders nor the Final Results in printed form?
Apart from being promoted by Gervais Williams I’d say the whole set up looked dodgy?
Anyone met the BoD? Is the lack of detail because PI’s only represent a minority interest?
Part of reason for price rise is an upbeat note from Barons.
CEO Read tells Barron's that "we are back to service revenue growth in Europe as
well as Africa," with more than 3% growth in the first quarter. "We have good commercial
momentum in the business and we are continuing to build value around our platforms, such
as IoT and M-Pesa," he says.
Except VOD held a CDM for analysts on 29th September all feedback has been positive. All UK brokers are Buy/OW.
Deutsche Bank put out a Note dated 18th October, headline ‘Time for perspective, The valuation f Vodafone is highly compelling. Buy’
PT 230p!!! Others are ranging from 150p to 183p
Two Buy notes on 18th Oct. One says ‘highly compelling buy’ and the other a Buy trade. Both 230p price target. Claim VOD very oversold. Reassuring that CMD on 29th Sept was +ve.