Member Info for PaulCurtis

Ivor

‘ They have and are continuing. They are not insolvent. They are owed hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. They are maintaining liquidity at agreed levels. What part of that do you not understand? ’

Read the GC statement. They are in default/insolvent and run out of headroom in Sept. Hence the urgency of the D4E

They actually say this!!! Please read it

Ivor

Petrofac have clearly stated that they cannot continue without performance guarantees. Which bit of that sentence don’t you understand?

To get PGs they have tongreatly reducing the debt burden.

This means restructuring and D4E

Ivor

You are posting complete nonsense

Creditors are in damage limitation mode, that means that they will salvage whatever they can. Petrofac have clearly stated that they cannot continue without performance guarantees. Which bit of that sentence don’t you understand?

We must now get an update on Monday as they must surely tell us what position with the bond extension is.

No update yesterday implies to me that we get the deal terms on Monday. If we were talking about a week or two delay, I think they would’ve said so yesterday.

The bond price was fifteen to twenty cents yesterday but I’m told this is because many of the bond brokers were refusing to trade the bonds because they now believe there is an imminent debt for equity and as bond traders they don’t want to have to wait six months to get a load of equity.

I tried to buy some bonds at $.16 but the best offer was 20.

PVCF

Agreed, we must get update since bonds need extending

Will be a reality check for equity since will almost certainly rule out any takeover. We may get the D4E deal terms, or they are close to a D4E deal or insolvency.

I reckon D4E at 4p

IMO insolvency is either

1. Can’t get PG's so can’t get the $300m, business goes into wind down and we are all stuffed. Nothing left for Debtholders.

2. Partial sale of some assets, wind down of the rest. Equity get nothing, Debtholders might get something but depends on wind down costs and how ring fenced from the good assets. eg the Renewables division must be valuable.

3. Sale of everything out of administration but debtholders only get c. 50 cents on the dollar because the crap assets are effectively given away. Nothing for equity.

PFC clearly state that they run out of cash by Sept even after Debtholders giving them a standstill on interest/debt repayments. They desperately need PG’s but clearly can’t get these without the restructuring to reduce the debt burden first.

IMO each passing day increases the risk of insolvency.

Why? Because the D4E terms were announced on 12th April. It’s a complex deal but time critical because PFC are risking losing back orders and will struggle to get new orders. Debtholders are strongly motivated to come together and get this over the line.

You will say it’s because there is a takeover bid at 75p a share!!! If there was any chance of a decent bid PFC would have had to announce it. There is zero doubt about this.

Ivor

PFC have very clearly stated how dire the current position is. There was nothing positive in their last update. They spelt out that only two options, D4E or insolvency, and that time critical.

However, because they have not updated for a month you now believe that everything is rosy. This is based on wild conjecture, you have zero evidence.

Slipping, was 24-26 cents, now 21-23 cents.

This really is not going to end well for equity. Please don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.

Based on all the info in the public domain the risk reward is diabolical.

Don’t listen to Ivor, I don’t know what his agenda is but there will be no glorious takeover and we must get news imminently.

PFC said that they have to agree the restructuring by early July.

We must get an update since the non default extension on the bonds ends imminently, from memory the 26th. The BoD alluded to this deadline as the next critical hurdle during the Q&A.

Please read the Going Concern statement before paying any attention to Ivor. The BoD are clearly saying that the only two options are insolvency or D4E. And future cash flows indicate that the deal must be concluded by end September

Ivor

JMP are saying that your ‘steady as she goes’ results in zero value for the bonds!!! They have to get the $400m performance guarantees to survive. Time is of the absolute essence because they will struggle to win new business and keep existing business.

Headline is

‘Like herding cats, Recovery could be low and uncertain’ and this is for the Bonds.

It’s scary stuff! eg they say the potential liability for the HMRC litigation is $174m and PFC haven’t provided for this. All these nasties add up. They also throw cold water over valuations from selling the business on a going concern basis.

I’ll breath a sigh of relief if/when the D4E is signed off!! But we need it now and no news is a worry since PFC must be desperate to wrap this up and reassure customers.

Latest update 17th June.

They are concerned that PFC will start losing contracts.

And PFC have said they have to sort the restructuring by early July to comply with September target completion. So we need news!

This report is on the Bonds, JPM say 48% recovery if a successful restructuring, zero if a wind up via insolvency.

No mention of selling the company.

PV Vet

The !6th June deadline was a potential insolvency trigger point if the RCF/TL did not sign off on PFC putting up the cash collateral. However since this cash was coming from the existing PFC cash pile it was always likely they would sign off UNLESS this contract was with a division that was effectively going to be wound down in insolvency.

I think nothing has changed since last update, it’s D4E or insolvency via administration with the debtholders selling the business to a bidder or bidders. Since debtholders are likely to take a major hit (Fitch say they get 45 cents per dollar) there will be nothing for shareholders

The Board said

The Financial Restructure discussed below is currently the only option to secure the future operations of the Group and active discussions are ongoing. The realistic alternative to the Financial Restructure is insolvency.

Obviously until they say something else this must be the most likely outcome?

All this nonsense about muddling through (without the lifeblood of PG’s) or takeovers is for the birds!

I can’t think of a case where the bonds or equity were suspended because of a takeover (that didn’t include insolvency as the first step)? Any of you got an example of this happening?

Would the bonds/equity be suspended for a D4E? I’m 99% certain that GKP bonds and equity continued to trade.

I think bonds/equity would only definitely be suspended if insolvency?

This came from my broker talking to the broker we use who trades the bonds. It’s pretty irrelevant because it just reiterates what we already know. PFC have clearly told us that the two options are D4E or insolvency.

The bonds are currently trading at 24 - 26.5 cents

The bonds are not suspended but a couple of brokers have stopped trading them because of concerns re settling trades if a corporate action such as insolvency or a restructuring suspension

Ivor

If PFC can’t get the PG’s they go bust. It’s as simply as that. There is no trundling on.

This 16th June deadline required cash collateral , we don’t know how much. The last PG (pre YE) required $100m cash collateral from PFC. Desperate stuff and now unsustainable.

They must now get proper PG’s and that means restructuring so that the banks will lend.

PFCVet

Agreed, this ‘only’ required the RFF/TL (Banks) to sign off on using cash already held by PFC (in excess of the minimum $75m requirement) to post the cash collateral needed for the PG.

As far as I can tell the only reason for not signing off would be that the Banks prefer the insolvency option and view this contract as adding no break up value.

Otherwise, in view of the 41% BHs offering a $300m funding solution via D4E, they’d be turkeys voting for Xmas.

Similarly I’m not too concerned about PFC breaching the minimum $75m cash buffer since what are the RCF/TL’s going to do about it other than force insolvency. They have no securitised claim on this money.