Member Info for PatiencePays

Touché Vegas! But it is starting to feel a bit like one of those tedious tv talent shows: ‘...and the winner is... announced after these messages from our sponsors...’

Timescale? Weeks?

Agree we’ll hopefully see an uptick to/past 150p, and also hopefully a stop to the tide going out every week down to 120s then back up so we can consolidate a solid platform from which to launch the AVCT rocket when we receive the blast off RNS on validation and manufacture maybe 6-8 weeks time. And not forgetting the real beneficiaries here, hopefully all in time to help you, me and the world to better control what seems to be an inevitable second, maybe greater than the first, peak in winter. GLA

Great progress update but it’s not gold on the market - agree hard (possibly very hard @20p!) to resist a slice, but hold for gold remains my mantra for now.

Clearly a material drop expected in the SP from panicked PIs, however what are people’s thoughts on the length of the ‘pause’ (to use CCLs language) priced-in already? Once a rapid test (like AVCT’s) is available, the brakes are off, however typical cruise-goers book 1+years in advance, so how long to re-fill the order books?

Not sure what has been more erratic today, TOM’s SP or my heart rate. Have a good weekend all - Monday should be interesting!

300p+ value was for a company with an aggressive growth plan - agree (or rather hope...!) returning customer and new sign-up numbers will be positive given all the rhetoric i.e. exercise and you’ll probably live longer(!), however I’d expect any deals not inked-in on new sites will be back to the drawing board to eek out more value / cut costs, which means they’ll be delayed. I think this is a good med/long-term hold, the short term I’m imagining to be a rise today, possibly 160p(?), plateau until 25th, more modest rise (maybe an RNS) on/after 25th when they ‘officially’ re-open, plateau again, then slide-back on the half-year with a material drop if the full-year plan is updated to incl. fewer new sites. Conversely, the UK commercial property market will be a fire sale over the next year at least, and i expect there are several smaller gym companies that have/will (on ending furlough) cease to exist, which may mean some quick/cheap acquisitions to help back-fill planed 2020 site numbers? Not sure if that’s ramping or deramping but either way I’m invested here - positives outweigh the negatives still in my mind, but north of 160p will be very tempting with the chance to buy-back in late august. DYOR of course!

Interim results mid-late August wont be a pretty sight - sell on the rise after opening is my plan!

Allegedly there’s a Govt. announcement at 17:00 tonight on re-opening timetable for gyms. Last chance today at this share price (hopefully...!) DYOR

How many boards are you going to post this on?! We get it, you’re ramping.

Being bid 1.3p to sell. Me thinks the shorters aren’t as daft as some think.

Surely shorters bough-back on Friday’s rise, hence (in part at least) the mad rush before the bell up to 1.7, then it fell-back to 1.5?

Article in Health Club Management Magazine (20/05/20):

‘A survey by Savanta ComRes, in partnership with Sport England, has studied the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on attitudes and behaviours towards physical activity.

Findings included that 87 per cent of current gym members said they are likely to resume their membership when facilities reopen.

Encouragingly for the fitness sector, 27 per cent of people who are not currently members at a health club said they are also likely to join.‘

Full article here: https://www.healthclubmanagement.co.uk/health-club-management-news/COVID-19-Savanta-ComRes-Sport-England-coronavirus-physical-activity-gym-health-club-ukactive-Huw-Edwards/345528

Thoughts on the likelihood of a sub 200p buy going through on Monday (assuming no positive news)?

‘Gym bunnies could be back on the treadmill as soon as July‘ according to The Times (21/05/20).

Ditto. Finger was hovering over the buy button in the mid 5’s, talked myself out of it. Kudos to those with more nerve - well done!

Bigger question - will I regret not hitting the sell button in the high 8’s...?

GLA, have a good weekend.

What are people’s thoughts on margin versus ‘social conscience’? Adnec dropped it’s £3m/month rent for ExCel like the proverbial hot potato as soon as the social media mob descended? Although I don’t imagine ODX will be quite so motivated by ticket sales for pop concerts in the new world?!

No resolution to confirm 2019 Dividend payment. Resolution to allow sale/purchase of Director Shares by the Company at max 105% market. Not much else on the agenda. I expect Bojo’s update (expected this Sunday?) will be far more impactful. Gyms were trading with social distancing measures pre-lockdown e.g. capped and actively managed occupancy, closure of shower facilities, every other machine closed, nighttime closures with deep cleaning etc. Whether these are sufficient in light of improved understanding of transmitting of the disease I’m not sure. I have seen gyms offering/developing online content, which is a plus both during and post lockdown surely - the more strings to your bow the better your chances of successful recovery? The government smartphone app may provide an opportunity to screen entrants on arrival?

Here for RNS’: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-home.html

Handy to bookmark - thanks!