Member Info for passiton

Gusmão, 77, is back, front of stage. His party won most seats in this May’s elections, and he recommenced as prime minister, head of a 47-person cabinet. This five-year term will determine his nation’s future direction. His priority is that the south coast of Timor-Leste becomes a processing hub for Greater Sunrise. More than a billion U.S. dollars has been spent, including building a new international airport and part of a four-lane highway to service this facility, which presently doesn’t exist. Time is ticking. The gas remains under the seabed. His country risks going broke in less than a decade.

https://www.usip.org/blog/2023/11/timor-lestes-gusmao-does-old-dog-have-new-tricks-save-economy

Meg's been in the mainstream media recently, making waves and challenging the Government, to act and support, the Australian industry as a whole, especially Gas, so little doubt Gas is high on her future agenda, both for home and exports. Was expecting some kind of Sunrise update, after the talks about 10 days ago, especially after the China news, at minimum still ironing out the details but now very much on the same page, hands up all in favour of HUB/Beaco 🤔

Thanks Doug, had not seen that GS EP Study, presume that's on their website/RNA message, not looked at them in a while, another lesson in take your eye off for a minute and something slides by/in.🙄

Dougb

Spot on the money with the infrastructure, if true, Natarbora, would sit on the South Coast , next door to Betano Oil refinery and the purpose built, offshore oil and gas support port of Suai, would make sense and surely save them some costs. 🤔

Again far less travel, for the 240mb Condensate from Greater Sunrise (Troubadour) I presume would be transported from separation at Beaco to processing at Betano ? (not my department) as liquids. 🤔

JA , let it be, oh let it be 😉😂 whisper words of wisdom (rna/drilling) , let it be e e e

if that natarbora was a leak, it brings chuditch a lot closer to the gas/lng site and wondering if metinaro also its imports side was originally stripped away from beaco, could they be co-locating them again? which once more, makes a straight line short route for its fpso to natarbora, start fpso 1 or few wells, long after baron departed full ffd to the new pipeline, that could go straight line, chuditch, through kelp (10.5-14.5 tcf) and tie in to the sunrise line to natarbora, some intriguing, makes shouston's mouth water possibilities, all of which should get someone off their ****, to take out the minnow and maximise their long term production profits. 😉😂

Be nice to just see 1 positive released by the Timor Government, that is backed up by OZ/China whoever ! 🙄

Plus, we all await, what is China going to do for their Oil and Gas industry, promised by President BRI himself Xi, is that the reason for this years conference being cancelled/postponed ? as in why have one, if no need to advertise and promote, China on its way 🤔

Agree, something is certainly simmering and next weeks absence of both Gusmao and Horta, from next weeks 6-10th Pacific Islands conference, adds fuel to the fire, so does, no Cabinet meeting this week, what's delaying it ? 🤔

Even more curious , is the local NGO Lao Hamutuk, running a story (now taken down) that Beaco has been scrapped, in favour of an alternate site at Natarbora and Australia and TL in accelerated talks , to bring Sunrise to it ASAP, was that bogus, leaked, told to remove by Gov ??????? very strange, to even contemplate change to their 20+ year obsession with Beaco 🤔

No idea, that if I recall is more your department 😉😂

Doubt they will risk loosing other World Bank and IMF assistance by ransacking their fund, so it's probably not going to contribute much via Timor Gap NOC, which still owes the Fund a lot, including the loan of $650m for 56% of Sunrise.

Would seem very much down to Andy B and his regional connections, arrange funds/driller, meanwhile hoping someone bigger will jump in to save them (Majors return etc) with a far more advanced timetable. 🙄

As posted earlier, still wonder if, that original $20/$25m development loan with the Singapore bank, in conjunction with when Sundagas floated on the Singapore exchange, still exists ? 🤔 That amount would cover a going it alone drill with a rigger, recent offshore Australia drills coming in at $18-20m and additional $2 - $5m additional costs, depending on what follow up work done, after a successful drill. 🤑

Sundagas, seemed to have little problem getting such a loan as a new company floating, with no assets at the time, so thinking AB, with all his extensive regional contacts, can do it again, if push comes to shove. 🙂

😂 Come on Doug, been here long enough to know our Yeo ho ho and co, do not do nice to have RNA update messages or god forbid, some expansive PR on an actual event that the world and his dog knew about, before they put out an almost apologetic, oh yes as you all now know, we had this meeting tweet ffs 🙄

And m8, still have a very good feeling about timings of our asset and the Island own domestic plans, snail paced plan by Yeo ho ho (not planning to be there but production by 2027) can move a lot quicker, with deeper pockets in charge and an UPPER tier offshore drilling squad. 3 power stations to Gas by 2025 when announced probably slid a little, Metinaro PIT Gas/lng Import fac's and 90 day tank farm FID announced by end of 2023 , Baron then extend its summer drill or drop to December 18th 2023 (both Q4 ) , if it walks like a duck 😉🤔

Sunrise/Beaco last October tenders remained by 2030, probably still possible, big players or a Chinese take over, easily done , still have 6 years to play with. 😂

True Shouston but having discovered two large gas deposits, then had a plan in place to exploit them, if TL had cooperated back in 2002 of 2008, we would never have sneaked in the back door for such a huge asset, that a Super Major spent $47 million on in the late 90's., Bank of England inflation calculator , calls that converted £39m then as £71m- £91m TODAY. (1990-1999)

The sunrise triple maj spent $400m developing sunrise before mothballing 2004. (£598m-£772m now) , they said across the entire license , Chuditch probably bigger than sunrise, Baron only played with a portion, figures all way out of our minnows league, 1 drill/sell , or sale now for Yeo ho ho's right price, is the way to go, for a big payday EXIT.

Baron asset early development investor, not an oiler. 😉🤔

As said for 4 years, that will be all down to the TL Leadership, giving a first ever permit for other, or actually building Beaco (or Metinaro) onshore, either brings value back to all the long $0.00c valued and stranded gas. We do not even need to drill to get some value returned, just a realistic chance of future potential production/sales, that will bring forth a much bigger player, as boil is not interested in that far down the line, 1 drill and sell, or outright sale, their game plan 🤔

Butler and Sundagas directors, at the heart of the Islands own Industry development (2016-Ongoing) , they are the movers and shakers in getting this deal done and keeping TL sweet, not Yeo ho ho......GLA

Now recognised by A.B 's recent addition to the Baron BOD 😉

And the assumptions about shell are wrong, they wanted to take Sunrise to Woodsides Darwin facilities, they had a jv within the jv with Conoco Phillips, to take the majority of production to the S.W USA states from 2003, in 2008 tried again with FLNG, first denied by Gusamo, the second by Horta , TL 0% Holding at the time, just territorial rights, Shell said leaving, moved Chuditch Australian license over to Mitra and waited on TL Gov for years, until they stumped up $650m to pay for Shell/Conoco 56%, with immediate double standard, as Majority holder, the JV should do what we want !

Shell announced the FLNG Ship was under construction in a Korean shipyard and specifically for first use Sunrise, with a 26/28 wellhead plan, so if allowed, pretty sure they would have retained Chuditch, to drain after Sunrise back then. 🤔

The current Mitra connection remains, they also planned FLNG, the license disappeared, resurfacing in Nov 2019 as the new TL license and NON tender award to Sundagas for services rendered since 2016, pretty sure I remember reading those original directors had a connection with being ex Mitra.

Why keep saying Andy Butler is our secret weapon in all this, helped TL set up its own industry, still involved in the training and development via Sundagas, did not float in Singapore until 2018/19 in prep for the Chuditch award, at which time he also got a $20 or was it $25m development loan agreement with a Singapore bank (untouched as far as I know) no idea if that money still sits in the background, since we absorbed SG in 3 stages, after the full RTO failed in 2020, due to Baron not being able to raise the funds (prob no one would stump up on a stalled region risk) so took 33% 25% Chuditch to set the ball rolling.

So still wonder about that Singapore funding link, if we do end up going it alone, lesser rig partner, with that legacy funding being non dilutive loan , vice equity ?🤔

The amount £ 20/25m was what was also announced on the bid round, potential bidders having to prove they had that sum to develop if license awarded, in order to qualify. 🤔

It's always been about what the Island wants, nothing more, nothing less, they want gas by 2025/26, the statement to save millions per annum on current Diesel costs, shooting themselves in the foot, if they do not utilise what they have, which is

Sunrise, set in stone for HUB/Beaco

Kelp according to Mobil in 1998 a top end 10.5 - 14.5 TCF, potentially bigger than all Bayu/Sunrise/Chuditch , has had neither a license or operator for years, so years away.

Leaving CHUDITCH , or expensive imports, which would you choose , if Horta/Gusmao, for me, it's a doorstep discount every time 😉

Said for a long time Jarv, they have two projects Sunrise/Beaco 2030 Gas/LNG Exports 2030 and Metinaro Gas/LNG Imports to supply 3 being converted to gas power stations, Parliament by 2025, now which one does Chuditch seem, in the best position to do them an early favour first, with its FPSO plan? 😉🤔

Still thinking our drill or drop extension to December 18th , on the back of their announcement , Metinaro FID in Q4 2023, more than a curious coincidence.🤔

Looks like the local administrative side ANPM now ANP, is after all these years, possibly updating its upstream exploration licence files, the long standing not a lot in it on all fields , Lafaek Database now unavailable. 🤔

https://web01.anpm.tl/webs/anptlweb.nsf/pgLafaekFieldList

Cloud, I believe it was me, that posted first thing yesterday morning, saying the 21% rise we were on, would only be just another little spike, unless Yeo ho ho and co backed it up with some NEWS ! 😉😂

BP fine, pulse lifelong exceptional like a clock, last Abdominal Aorta check 1.2-1.4 impressed those that scanned it, so bring it on, fighting fit and ready to see us Multi Mega Bagger on a sale back to Shell 😉🤔😂

Thankyou for your concern though.

Likewise, no cabinet meeting this week so far, all Gusmao's Tueday 2 the rest Wednesday so far, Rauk's years in office, virtually all Wednesday, with sometimes an additional meeting (covid/storms stuff) on a Friday, so also wondering what the hold up is this week and will Friday reveal something to stir up a bit of FOMO Friday , if Yeo ho ho , has not updated us by then. 🤔

Their absence is making the shareholder wonder.