RE: Blue day coming ?9 Nov 2023 10:45
They are all tied together, Santos/ENI still have not signed off their new license psc's, first due June 2022, then extended to February 2023 announced Nov 2022 and until a ANPM line a couple of weeks ago, advancing psc talks with ENI, silence since Santo/ENI/Koreans have their own plans and Darwin facilities, so what's the hold up to committing 10's of millions, hundreds on FFD development, the obvious answer, they to are waiting, wanting assurance THEIR plans will be honoured, which was not the case with the Majors/Tier1 players that departed, having both Darwin and FLNG refused by the Island, the message , all can wait for Beaco, it all comes to the Island.
In essence, no YES permit ever given and no path to market, at least for us, if Sunrise plan to Beaco becomes a reality, it is A ROUTE TO MARKET, that will be permitted and so our long valued $0.00c Gas will have value returned to a prospective developer wanting to move in on Chuditch, a first ever YES to other, e.g. our FPSO plan would be better for the industry, showing, their slogan Timor Leste open for business, actually is for the first time ever, would move those sitting on the fence quicker imo.
Woodside for the past few years has had its 34% of Sunrise on its books at $0.00c after marking down year on year from hundreds of $ millions, its future secured by a HUB/Beaco development agreement, returns that big number to their balance sheet and should have the knock on effect, to return some sensible value to Boil/Chuditch 75% of 3.5 tcf gas.
Sunrise gets sorted, the Island become honest, can others develop, or all wait in a queue for their turn at Beaco etc and the floodgates should open and TL should get new owners for the 11 of 18 licenses not picked up in the pathetic bid round 9 bids on 7 licenses after 2 1/2 years, at same time Nigeria had 57 licenses and over 1,600 bids.
Why such a drastic difference, one country established and lots of homes and production plans available, the other sending mixed messages, a history of NO to the industry, you can wait for something that does not exits 20 years later.
All we need is a visible progression, or a plan that suits TL, e.g. we get a yes for FPSO but we have to supply them and their Metinaro project (Gas/LNG Imports - 3 power stations)
We only need a validated path/s to market, we do not even have to drill, Dunrobin Oil more than covers our current Market Cap, Woodside gas value returns on Sunrise resolution, then so should ours.........GLA 🤔😉