Member Info for parkside13

Well some have hade 40% or so from the low and so it'll dribble off until either we get some palpable news else the risk/reward is in balance maybe into the low 50's again? But given they said eight weeks ago we'd get some news, the deal is obviously complex or is going bad so to speak.

I agree and I'd rather assumed they had identified it was an issue some considerable time before that. It's the "stupid deal overseen by inadequate non execs" that worries me.

Because I think the maximum dilution value per share is around 120p whilst if they satisfy the two loan repayments in cash by perhaps selling assets, the intrinsic value per share is north of 220p. But I'm worried that they (the execs) who own a big slug of equity too have a weak non exec who haven't got a grip on the complexities of these deals and in any case are motivated simply to add MW. The intrinsic value is there though.

I own a big slug of GKO and am currently taking up their whole ridiculous LTIP structure with the Board. This incentivises them to put MW in the ground. That's it. Not ROE or share price performance, absolute or relative - which is what I care about. MW in the damn ground. It's totally preposterous. A totally incompetent chairman and Board, particularly the Chairman who couldn't manage National Power when he ran that and displays similar incompetence here. Watch this space.

Again Doc all anecdotally interesting but Woodford hates wind with a passion as does Drax. Irrelevant to the valuation and you seem unable to present any credible and informative view on value here apart from meaningless regurgitation.

You keep regurgitating stuff from Infinis rather than answering the question of valuation. I suspect you have no idea at all re its intrinsic value in truth.

Ok but how do you value Infinis? I'm not interested in SPW or wind I'm interested in how you value this equity? As I asked EBITDA multiple or dividend yield or PER of DCF of cashflow to equity or what??

Ok so purporting to know so much how would you value Infinis shares? EBITDA multiple taking into account landfill on say 6x and wind on 9x? Or PER or dividend yield? Where do you see value here and why?

Sorry what has cutting and pasting this, got to add to the valuation debate? Nothing I think.

No the day the share goes xd is when the price falls pari passu to reflect the non entitlement. It fell on budget day because of the loss of the LEC then again when Infinis quantified the eps hit. So all perfectly logical. It's now down 25% so about the same intrinsic value as when it was 190p odd. It's all quite simple!

Yes but you are forgetting the 20% loss of equity value through the cancellation of the LEC. That plus the xd gets you to 25%. Which is roughly where we are.

With greatest respect so what?

Honestly this is really not a MM conspiracy!! The eps has just been hit by 20% plus the xd so it's fallen by around 25% which is about right. Don't know what's so confusing here!!

The £600m of debt is non recourse project finance and won't be hugely affected by the removal of the LEC but of course the impact on equity cashflow is greater so around £11m. Unless they cut more cost I doubt whether the full 18.3p odd dividend is sustainable but let's say they reduce that by £10m that'll give you say 15p or a yield of 11% at the current share price. That assuming they don't hack it back to reinvest but I'm not sure reinvest into what? They might take th view that the new MWs fill the earnings/dividend gap but I'm not sure that a levered 66mw does that and they would have already assumed it filled the reduction in earnings from landfill gas. So best guess is a reduction of 15-20% in the divi.

I meant, of course, to say RO not EO. Fat fingers

Look to all the moaners and mm conspiracy theorists, chill out for Petes sake!! They have lost the EO early, then they lose the LEC, hardly surprising therefore the shares are down 25% or so 5% of that being xd. The shares are ok at this level value wise and even if they the divi by 25% they still yield over 10%. So for goodness sake why on earth sell? They are ok value here.

Yes and the CCL abolition knocks around £11m off EBITDA for say 5 years so that's £50m or so which is 11% then you have the RO impact which will have some impact and then what will the idiotic Tories do next to stuff renewables? Think 15-20% is about right frankly. I've bought some here at 159.5p as I think it's about in the price although the EBITDA multiple still troubles given its 2/3rds landfill gas.

They have gone xd and been hit by the abolition of the CCL. Blame the idiotic Tories.

Bought a few more today. I think intrinsic value is north of 100p even with full (and unnecessary) dilution.

What news Monday? Why do you think there will be news? I suspect this process will take some time to resolve.