Member Info for parkside13

If your intrinsic value was higher than 70.8p - which presumably it was as you were prepared to pay 70.8p then why did you sell at 57.5p? You should have bought more at that price all other things being equal. Beyond that I cant help you.

It is extraordinary on the face of it but I'm afraid that the city is populated with shisters and idiots that think it is fine to manipulate something like this to their own ends. The culture is simply terrible. End of year bonus, end of year bonus, end of year bonus and damn everything and everyone else. I knew a guy like this. He thought it was his divine right to earn a three million pound bonus every year and hang everyone else. He contributed, of course, f all to anything and was a completely self absorbed narcissist oaf. Shames is the City is still full of em. That's partly why I got out.

Eh!! I don't come to conclusion that Infinis should have dropped the same as Drax! Infinis should have dropped more on the LEC news all other things being equal. The reasons why Infnis has dropped more again have to do with the possible balance sheet write downs on capitalised development costs, concerns over the dividends, institutional seller aside of Terra, the Tarr overhang etc etc. But I say again in my view Infinis is oversold and is now cheap. That's why I am buying it. But you cannot compare it to Drax.

Yes but Drax has formally carried out or is carrying out a strategic review and so that could be the start of a process. Infinis has been trying to flog its 70% for an eternity with no takers. Drax is a much more of a UK strategic asset that Infinis and is dispatchable. We don't know what Dividend Infinis can pay as it has just lost 10-15% of its equity cashflows. Therefore I think Infinis will cut, all other things being equal, by say 20% that assuming it doesn't use the LEC to completely rebase the dividend down to a 5% yield on current share price or something like that - doubt it. The existing wind farms wont be producing more but the new projects will add MWh. But remember LFG is declining by 1-2% per annum and that still makes up bulk of EBITDA.

Fats the other issue is that there are institutional sellers of Infinis. hat will take some time to clear. Moreover Drax doesn't have a big stock overhang from Terra to deal with.

Sorry that wasn't very clear. The equity hit is much greater for Infinis as it is reasonably highly leveraged so the equity bears the brunt. Drax has little debt and so whilst the EBITDA hit was greater, as a proportion of the EV (which for Drax is equity) it is smaller. But same goes, you can't compare the two.

Cant compare the two. The value hit to Infinis is greater from the LEC loss plus Drax has effectively put itself up for sale the hence the rise in the SP in the last three trading sessions. So no comparison at all.

I think it's fair today you got your intrinsic value wrong!! What's happened to Infinis is nothing to do with the MMs! The equity was overvalued to begin with; it gets hit by the RO rebranding; then by the elimination of the RO early; then by the removal of the LEC. It's a highly geared equity because of the project finance and bonds and its halved. That's it. No conspiracy. You got the initial value wrong then you got a Tory government which hates renewables. Bingo 137p. Now its cheap. Buy some!

You are confusing the intrinsic value of an equity with those who trade it. If intrinsic value (ie discounted value of future equity cashflows) is say 100p and the shares are at 50p then, all other things being equal, the shares are worth investing in. Market makers have no impact on intrinsic value assuming the Company's capital structure is ok.

Or at least one of the many reasons why!

That's why you should invest long term!!

No not exactly but it'll be tight. I wouldn't get over worried as I'm sure they can refinance or change the terms if needs be but there are lots of moving parts here and so it'll continue to be volatile. But the value is there long term. You can't trade this. If you try to with no patience you might lose a grand!!

And re the Scottish wind farm extension, they can't build it!! There is no RO post March 2016 and that's too soon to build it. So probably valueless in truth. I still think Infinis is cheap but your comments are for items that have no value.

There is one large institutional seller of Infinis and of course there is also the Terra overhang. The project finance mkt is inaccessible for wind projects and Infinis doesn't have enough equity to build on balance sheet then there is their £350m loan where the covenants are tight on LFG EBITDA. So all of this taken together with the lack of dividend clarity after the LEC hit its unsurprising its not going up right now!! The MM may well have sold stock they had on their books from 135p so looking at the buys and sells doesn't give a clear picture. It'll continue very volatile pro tem.

Classic! That did make me laugh.

I have no idea what you are talking about? If you mean you sold some shares at 160p then jolly well done and sort of so what!!

Well 25 years as a fund manager taught me a decent amount re the behaviour of market makers!! All I'm trying to explain is the reason for Infinis being 137p. In truth I couldn't give two hoots about a few p here and there. I can assess that when I trade. I'm more interested in intrinsic value v share price and this was at quite a nice discount and still is.

Look really there is no conspiracy or market abuse here! Infinis was overpriced when it IPO'd - was on around 9x EBITDA when obviously landfill isn't worth that much - and the yield seduced everyone in. Then the mkt worked out the valuation and it fell to 190-200p. Then the Tories stuffed the generous RO and the shares are down at 139p. It's really not rocket science. I think the equity's NPV might be around 200p so I've bought some more today having paid 160p and 145p originally. But it really isn't hard to see why it's fallen!!

Well it's seems a little more robust than last time it was here. Mind you the higher it goes, the higher it goes as dilution reduces.

I wonder when they are going to RNS something? Mkt clearly getting concerned again