RE: Buyout3 Aug 2022 18:14
Hi Squirrel, yes I understand what you are saying, but I think it quite unlikely that Big Oil (aka the Seven Sisters - how many left?), eg Exxon, Shell or BP will be the buyer of our precious gem. Either a big, but not the biggest, Oil Company or a PE/Oil related, probably not listed company.
Present obstacles to at least partially closing the gap between present MC and "real value" (let's say £3-5 bn, anyway a substantially higher number)
1)Farallon - I agree with other posters here or on the other board that it is a real mystery why or how C has not been able to convince F that the remaining shares (3-4%?) could be easily placed. Only speculation: is it cast in F's stone that they will continue to unwind their position; gradually, by say a fixed £ amount per day, or a fixed number of shares per day?
I understand that the Farallons of this world are credit orientated funds, who are probably not even allowed to hold equities as a consequence of their investment charter, and I have to accept that. Perhaps it will always remain in the the dark whether it was the House Broker's incompetence or F decidedly unwilling or stubborn to follow an alternative route.
2)Big Oil has this ESG problem. Perhaps they would like to buy us, but they don't want to be seen to expand in this area. No let's spend our huge casf flow on wind energy, solar or hydrogen projects. Is it a political or even PR thing?Unfortunately.
(Btw, we have so many real O&G experts on this board, as well as on the others, would not one of them have a friend at one of the Majors who would have a view on this situation?)
3)I hate to admit this but I could imagine that answering the question of the commerciality (in spite of the assurances from most of the conoisseurs on all three BB's) is crucial. And, to be fair, even if all of us LTH's are 100% -or is it 80%?- convinced that the answer is going to be positive, we are still waiting for that answer.
Any way, my conclusion:
1) and 3) are a matter of time, 3-5 months at the most?, and removal of one of these two will already lift our SP substantially - New ATH's to be expected.
2): I wouldn't hold my breath, but never say never.
AIMHO
GLA
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