Independent view17 Feb 2009 07:53
Our view: Sell
Share price: 146.75p (-16.25p)
Investors in South African paper group Mondi will not count yesterday as one of the group's finest.
The shares were down 10 per cent after Mondi issued a trading statement under the rules of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), where it has a dual listing. Under JSE rules, when basic earnings per share are expected to come in 20 per cent lower than the previous year, a company is obliged to tell the market. The company said that full-year EPS would be between 19 cents and 23 cents, down from 39.5 cents in 2007.
It also confirmed yesterday that full-year operating profits would be about 8 per cent down on last year.
For the investor who likes a white-knuckle ride, watchers at the company's house broker UBS set a price target of 200p, but concede that they are “concerned by weakening price [and] volumes, which are unlikely to improve over next 12 months.”
The experts at Goldman Sachs downgraded the group to a sell yesterday, saying the "first half of 2009 will be tough, with demand trends seen as very weak". Mondi will issue its full-year numbers on 26 February, but we would not be inclined to wait that long. Sell.